July 2021

[DoctorMu]

Mega chance of rain (60-70% in CLL) Tuesday and Wednesday.


The Death Ridge begins to lurk in the panhandle next weekend. Any rain we get during the week helps to keep it away.




Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
107 PM CDT Sat Jul 17 2021

.SHORT TERM [This Afternoon and Tonight]...
Drier and dusty/hazy air in place over SETX this morning will keep
it hazy this afternoon. Temperatures should climb into the 91-96
degree range a degree or 2 warmer than climo. Rain chances on the
spare side with slight chances for areas generally east of Wharton
to Sealy to Huntsville line as the seabreeze develops this
afternoon. Warm aloft with 700-500mb ridging centered atop
Freeport with subsidence evident on satellite on the northwest
flank of the ridge...i.e. much of SETX. This should hamper the
development of showers and thunderstorms until mid afternoon. By 6
pm expect any storms that may form to rapidly dissipate. Overnight
light winds, mostly clear to clear skies and balmy conditions.
45

&&

.AVIATION [18Z TAF Issuance]...
VFR through 09z with scattered CU. Isolated SHRA/TSRA possible
near the seabreeze in the vicinity of HOU/IAH/DWH/CXO. By 01z
expect these to have come to an end if not sooner. Patchy fog at
UTS/CXO/LBX toward morning and brief MVFR ceilings mainly north
near UTS/CXO. Guidance seems a little bullish with moisture return
Sunday and will introduce VCSH after 16-17z for IAH southward but
this may be overkill.
45

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 403 AM CDT Sat Jul 17 2021/...





.LONG TERM...[Monday through Saturday]

On Monday, a strong upper level ridge of high pressure over the
great basin will retreat N-NW and this will allow a strong short
wave rounding the top of the ridge to slide southward and aid in
carving out an upper level weakness in the base of an upper level
trough of low pressure that will extend from new England into the
Arklatex. Lowering 500 mb heights, PW values near 2.00 inches,
daytime heating and the sea breeze should set the stage for
scattered showers and thunderstorms. Rain chances increase on
Tuesday as the weakness aloft evolves into a closed upper level
low, moisture levels stay high and a weak surface cold front will
move toward the northern edge of the CWA. The front looks like it
will stall near a KCLL to KDRK line but weak convergence along the
boundary will need to be watched for some potentially heavy rain.
More of the same on Wednesday as the upper low over East Texas
shifts very slowly west toward the central part of the state. The
front will become diffuse during the day and will be less of a
focus for heavy rain but the weakness aloft and PW values near
2.00 inches will continue to foster daytime showers and storms.

Upper level riding will develop over the eastern Gulf Wednesday
night and the ridge will expand into eastern Texas on Thursday.
The CWA will be caught between the expanding ridge and the
weakness over Central TX. 500 heights will build to between
592-594 DM. There will be some low/mid level moisture trapped
beneath the expanding ridge so can`t rule out additional shra/tsra
but the building heights portends slightly drier conditions. The
ridge expands further on Friday but a weak short wave on the
backside of a long wave trough that extends into Texas will give
the NE half of the region another chance for showers and storms.
The upper ridge over the Rockies then becomes the dominant weather
feature for next weekend. The ridge expands east and becomes
centered over the Texas panhandle by early next week. Warmer and
drier conditions expected next weekend into early next week. 43

[Stratton20]

Hope the models are wrong about that ridge next weekend! High pressure is not welcomed here at all!

[DoctorMu]

We're not giving up hope yet long-term. Both GFS and Euro have weak ridging over the panhandle next Sunday - Tuesday. The Canadian has weak ridging (500 mb heights) over Louisiana in a week, and the GFS retreats and expands the ridge west as the end of the July nears, although elongation from CA through AZ, NM, and into Texas could be troubling.

In the meantime, let it rain! 30% chance tomorrow, Monday, 60% Tuesday, and 70% Wednesday. Statistically that's a 96% chance as measurable precip this week.

[Stratton20]

DoctorMu I just pray that the death ridge stays far enough away from ys, id rather have seabreeze storm chances daily than have a death ridge parked right over us, when I lived in Dubai we practically had a death ridge over us for 2 years and little to no rain at all

[Rip76]

Don’t have time to look at it in depth at the moment.
Is that anything firing up over the yuc?

[Stratton20]

Rip76 definitely noticed that as well, nice group of storms firing off the Yucatan Peninsula, Dont think its going to develop, but I never count out anything, but yeah definitely interesting to look at as their is some cyclonic vorticity with it

[Stratton20]

Interesting to note that POW Ponder is watching that energy by the yucatan peninsula as it moves Northwest , also says Northwest gulf is actually in a favorable phase of the MJO , combine that with an approaching front means this is something to watch

[Kingwood36]

What are the rain chances for Saturday as of now

[Stratton20]

Their is a chance and I mean a “Chance” of some sneaky tropical activity off the coast of Texas, definitely will be watching that piece of energy down by the Yucatan as it moves Northwestward , with a front approaching from the North by wednesday and the MJO in a favorable phase in the North western part of the gulf, it is possible we could see a potential spin up that could catch the models completely off guard, something to just casually monitor right now

[snowman65]

When is the last time it has rained this much from May through July? I drive around and nobody has been able to mow the grass in awhile, and those that have tried, regretted it lol

[Ptarmigan]

When is the last time it has rained this much from May through July? I drive around and nobody has been able to mow the grass in awhile, and those that have tried, regretted it lol

1899, 1900, 1919, 1936, 1941, 1942, 1943, 1946, 1959, 1960, 1961, 1968, 1973, 1975, 1979, 1981, 1983, 1989, 2004, 2006, 2007, and 2010.

1941, 1942, and 1943 had a dry month, but were wet from May to July.

[Rip76]

[quote=snowman65 post_id=99931 time=<a href="tel:1626630071">1626630071</a> user_id=106]
When is the last time it has rained this much from May through July? I drive around and nobody has been able to mow the grass in awhile, and those that have tried, regretted it lol

1900, 1941, 1942, 1943, 1946, 1959, 1961, 1968, 1973, 1975, 1979, 1981, 1983, 1989, 2007, and 2010.

1941, 1942, and 1943 had a dry month, but were wet from May to July.
[/quote]





And of those years we had hurricanes in 1900, 1943, 1961, 1983, 1989 & 2007?
And Claudette in ‘79.

[DoctorMu]

When is the last time it has rained this much from May through July? I drive around and nobody has been able to mow the grass in awhile, and those that have tried, regretted it lol

That's why I bought a mower with a 196 cc Honda engine. Cuts even through wet grass like buttah, when my old Sears Briggs and Stratton would choke out.

[DoctorMu]

What are the rain chances for Saturday as of now

Rain all week then dry Saturday per NWS as of now.

[DoctorMu]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 180920
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
420 AM CDT Sun Jul 18 2021

...

LONG TERM...[Tuesday through Sunday]

A deep long wave trough that extends from the eastern Great Lakes
into SE TX will bring a good chance of showers and thunderstorms
to the region on Tuesday. A weak cold front will stall over the
extreme northern part of the region but have some concerns that
meso-scale forcing along an outflow boundary will foster stronger
low level convergence closer to I-10. Will need to watch the
location of the front and the outflow for possible training of
storms on Tuesday and the potential for locally heavy rain. The
Weather Prediction Center has outlooked SE TX in a Marginal Risk
for excessive rainfall on Tuesday. The upper level trough will
bring lower heights Tuesday night into Wednesday. The lower
heights and PW values between 2.00 and 2.10 inches will bring a
continuation of showers and storms Tuesday night and Wednesday,
with the best potential for precipitation closer to the coast
where surface convergence looks strongest and co-located with
deeper moisture.

Upper level ridging over the Great Basin retreats to the west
while upper level ridging over the eastern Gulf expands west. That
said, SE TX will remain between both features with the upper
level weakness gradually filling. 500 heights still look low
enough and convective temperatures also look low enough that
scattered showers and thunderstorms will persist into Thursday.
The upper level ridge over the eastern Gulf expands west and
shunts the upper level weakness to the west. Moisture levels begin
to decrease across SE TX from east to west on Friday but moisture
levels still look sufficient for scattered mainly diurnally
driven shra/tsra. Upper level ridging will be the primary weather
feature next Saturday and Sunday. Moisture will be trapped beneath
the ridge so can`t rule out an isolated shower or storm both days
but most of the area will be drier and warmer for next weekend.

[jasons2k]

Yesterday I had a high of 99. High today (so far) has been 98.
Pretty “July” like

Looks like a wet week ahead. Then hopefully a break. We are 3 weeks past our scheduled dig date and still waiting.

[Stratton20]

DoctorMu me choke out? Huh?

[davidiowx]

Picked up a quick .6” this afternoon. Perfect!

[redneckweather]

Yesterday I had a high of 99. High today (so far) has been 98.
Pretty “July” like

Looks like a wet week ahead. Then hopefully a break. We are 3 weeks past our scheduled dig date and still waiting.

Jason, are you getting a pool put in or something?

[DoctorMu]

Yesterday I had a high of 99. High today (so far) has been 98.
Pretty “July” like

Looks like a wet week ahead. Then hopefully a break. We are 3 weeks past our scheduled dig date and still waiting.

It hasn't been about 95°F in College Station since July 2nd.