July 2021

[Stratton20]

Ita going to be very interesting if this scenario plays out, definitely would cause some flooding problems if this develops

[djmike]

Ok. All that mess offshore was headed inland and put on the breaks. What happened? Will it eventually move inland or dissipate over water?

[Stratton20]

DJMike it’s probably going to stat offshore most likely

[don]

A mid level low can be seen on satellite developing in south Texas at the moment.This is the low that some models show gaining tropical characteristics over the next few days.The strength and location of the low will greatly determine the areas that see excessive rainfall this week as it meanders around.

[Stratton20]

Don well technically since you said the Low is developing in South Texas, wouldnt that technically be its location? Is it going to just sit their or is it possible that the low moves a little closer to us?

[don]

Its going to meander around due to weak steering. Some models have it moving north into the middle Texas coast region.While others like the Euro have it moving into Mexico. If it meanders north enough then it will place the middle and upper Texas coast on the wet side of the system and in the heaviest axis of moisture.But if it stays down in south Texas or Mexico, the brunt of heavy rain will stay down there.Models are not in very good agreement at the moment exactly how the low will transpire over the next few days.

[Stratton20]

Don Ah gotcha! This will be an interesting forecast for aure, when do you think we should get some better agreement on the placement of this mid level low?

[don]

Ok. All that mess offshore was headed inland and put on the breaks. What happened? Will it eventually move inland or dissipate over water?

The heavy moisture over the gulf will be there for a few days being driven by low pressure over south Texas. Rather any of that heavy convection moves inland into Southeast Texas will be determined based on how close the area of low pressure gets to us. If it stays mainly around the valley,we will mainly see a continuation of pop showers and storms. While if it meanders further north towards the Corpus or Victoria area,then widespread convection will be pulled inland by the low into the middle and upper Texas coast.

[djmike]

Ok. All that mess offshore was headed inland and put on the breaks. What happened? Will it eventually move inland or dissipate over water?

The heavy moisture over the gulf will be there for a few days being driven by low pressure over south Texas. Rather any of that heavy convection moves inland into Southeast Texas will be determined based on how close the area of low pressure gets to us. If it stays mainly around the valley,we will mainly see a continuation of pop showers and storms. While if it meanders further north towards the Corpus or Victoria area,then widespread convection will be pulled inland by the low into the middle and upper Texas coast.

Ah. I see. Thanks Don!

[don]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
340 PM CDT Tue Jul 6 2021

.SHORT TERM [Today Through Wednesday Night]...

What`s your favorite song about the rain? Could it be "I Love a
Rainy Night" or maybe even "Raindrops Keep Fallin` on my Head"? Well
either way, these songs match the oh so familiar theme that we have
seen this week across Southeast Texas...the rain just keeps coming.
Fortunately, most locations are getting in on a break from the rain
this afternoon. Visible satellite trends earlier this afternoon
displayed an increasing field of cumulus clouds. So, as temperatures
warmed into the mid/upper 80s, convection began to fire up again
mainly in the western half of the CWA. The latest runs of the CAMs
are all in agreement that this afternoon`s coverage will remain
isolated to widely scattered. This changes for tomorrow, but before
we get to that let`s talk about tonight. The showers/storms taper
off after sunset with the loss of daytime heating, but the low-level
moisture in place will get trapped near the surface underneath the
nocturnal inversion. Inland locations (especially in the northern
half of the CWA) may experience another round of patchy fog and low
clouds in the early morning hours of Wednesday before mixing out in
the latter half of the morning.

On Wednesday morning, an area of low pressure is expected to develop
over South Texas and with PW values well over 2" it will have plenty
of moisture to work with. Several rounds of heavy rain will begin to
move onshore in the early morning hours of Wednesday along the coast
with a general focus in and around Matagorda Bay. This is where the
highest rainfall totals are expected, especially in our southwestern
counties (Jackson and Matagorda) where the Flash Flood Watch is in
effect starting at midnight tonight. 5 to 8 inches of rainfall are
expected with locally higher amounts possible. Other areas to the
east along the coast and further inland will receive plenty of
rainfall as well (2-4"), but not enough to warrant being included in
the watch at this time. Showers/storms will push inland again during
the afternoon hours with coverage being more widespread than
today`s. This will dissipate after sunset as daytime heating goes
away. Meanwhile along the coast, especially near Matagorda Bay,
moisture will continue to stream inland as the area of low pressure
continues to sit over South Texas. Rainfall in this region is
expected to continue well through Wednesday night.

As far as temperatures go, due to the cloud cover and rainfall that
will linger throughout the region, afternoon temperatures will run
well below normal today and tomorrow. Temperatures will be lower
along the coast where the greater coverage of rainfall is expected
for Wednesday.

Batiste

&&

.LONG TERM [Thursday Through Tuesday]...

Thursday looks like another wet day for much of the area as moisture
levels remain high (>2 inches) and a possible low level convergence
boundary sets up and persists somewhere around or to the south of
the I-10 corridor. Locally heavy rainfall will continue to be possible,
especially where any banding/training sets up. We`ll see what locations
have received any significant rainfall in the short term period and
evaluate for a possible expansion of the Flash Flood Watch. Models continue
to tell us that our area should see decreasing rain coverage at the
end of the week and especially on through the weekend (more widely scattered
to scattered than our current scattered to numerous as most area precipitable
water values fall to under 2 inches after Friday), so will go along
with this idea and continue to carry gradually lowering rain chances.
For those of you that are tired of our recent near normal to slightly
below normal early July high temperatures, we anticipate seeing more
90s popping up across the area over the weekend. 42

[Stratton20]

Hope that Low moves a little further North than currently anticipated, would love a good 4-6 inches here

[Ptarmigan]

Its going to meander around due to weak steering. Some models have it moving north into the middle Texas coast region.While others like the Euro have it moving into Mexico. If it meanders north enough then it will place the middle and upper Texas coast on the wet side of the system and in the heaviest axis of moisture.But if it stays down in south Texas or Mexico, the brunt of heavy rain will stay down there.Models are not in very good agreement at the moment exactly how the low will transpire over the next few days.

I found forecast models do not handle systems that to linger over the same area.

[Cromagnum]

Meanwhile, Elsa is back up to cat 1.

[Stratton20]

00z HRRR run brings in some pretty heavy rainfall amounts over the next 2 days

[davidiowx]

Meanwhile, Elsa is back up to cat 1.

Barely, but give them Tampa folks their experience. It’s been a long time

We’ll see what happens tomorrow and Thursday. Could be a doozy for someone. Others may wonder what happen to the rain in the forecast.

Anyways, it’s barely July and we are 5 named storms into the season with an Atlantic cruiser. When it comes to the tropics, I’ll take the displacement and random fronts bringing rain, and unfortunately record heat up to the PNW and Canada.

[Stratton20]

Interesting to note that a few of the short range mesoscale models indicate that this low over south texas may attempt to enter the gulf of mexico, something to watch, love to know yalls thoughts on that?

[don]

0z mesoscale models have the low further north near the middle Texas coast. With heavy qpf especially for the coastal and central counties. Wouldn't be surprised if a FF watch was extend further north tomorrow with the trends.

[Stratton20]

Don I thought they took this Low offshore? Ive noticed an red L with a pressure number popping up offshore on some of the mesoscale models, maybe Im looking at something different

[don]

Yes some of them do have it offshore. I was just referring to the general area that most have the low.

[Stratton20]

Don ah i gotcha