July 2021

[Stratton20]

I could use a good 3-7 inches of rain after the 4th, really dont feel like turning on my hose lol

[Cromagnum]

Good thing is with the recent rains we are less likely to see grass fires from fireworks around here.

[don]

Meh. The more an event is hyped, the less actually happens. All I know is right now it feels dreadful outside.

I wouldn't call this weather system "hyped". As just because some model runs have shown excessive rainfall,none have been showing consistency in those rainfall totals for the same area's from run to run. Which is why that has never been part of the official forecast by the NWS for the area. The forecast has been for localized street flooding which has been occurring for the last couple of weeks.Anything beyond localized street flooding has always been there as a potential if all the ingredients come together.Which has yet to occur.There's a reason why the NWS has not issued a FF Watch during this period, their not buying into individual model runs...

[Cpv17]

Meh. The more an event is hyped, the less actually happens. All I know is right now it feels dreadful outside.

I wouldn't call this weather system "hyped". As just because some model runs have shown excessive rainfall,none have been showing consistency in those rainfall totals for the same area's from run to run. Which is why that has never been part of the official forecast by the NWS for the area. The forecast has been for localized street flooding which has been occurring for the last couple of weeks.Anything beyond localized street flooding has always been there as a potential if all the ingredients come together.Which has yet to occur.There's a reason why the NWS has not issued a FF Watch during this period, their not buying into individual model runs...

It’s kinda looking like the far southern areas of southeast TX might get the most rain this time. Calhoun and Jackson County areas. At least that’s how it’s looking to me right now.

[don]

CPV17 computer models struggle in terms of where the heaviest rain fall will occur, those big bull eyes could just as easily be over us , just depends on if any training occurs, my attention changes to the front however, definitely will have to watch for any sort of spin up in the gulf, not saying anythings gonna happen, but water temps are more than warm enough to support something

Models are showing a lot of heavy convection sitting offshore this week, with the cool front and a coastal trough that develops in a few days. Will need to keep an eye on that. As with homebrew systems global models sometimes don't detect them until a few days before tc genesis occurs.And sometimes not at all.

[Stratton20]

Don I agree , this could be a tricky forecast that the modes might not pick up on, water temps off the texas coast are in the 84-86 range, definitely plenty warm to support development, definitely bares watching despite none of the models showing nothing atm

[Rip76]

That was nice storm in Friendswood.

[TexasBreeze]

That flood advisory around Klein is legit. It sure came down hard and the cul de sac just about went under!

[Rip76]

How are the pressures looking in the GOM right now?

[tsb2107]

Raining cats ands dogs in Spring. Cell sitting on top of us and straight dumping.

[don]

Radar is pretty active this morning,more people should see rain today than yesterday.

[Stratton20]

Latest GFS suggests Lower than normal pressures over the western and NW gulf for the next 2-6 days. With that front draped out in the GOM, something could try to spin up after elsa, not saying its a likely scenario, but just something to casually watch

[don]

Its pouring outside! Fwiw the 12z GFS now briefly develops an LLC later this week.

[DoctorMu]

Its pouring outside! Fwiw the 12z GFS now briefly develops an LLC later this week.

CMC sees something similar Wednesday and Thursday SW of HOU.

The radar is really exploding in SETX in the early afternoon today Wide coverage of scattered showers.

[Stratton20]

Don I cant believe I didnt see that when I went through the run, must have skipped passed that, very interesting however

[Cpv17]

What’s up with the Euro cranking out those huge totals in Mexico? Has been doing this for several runs now and no other model that I’ve seen is showing that.

[Stratton20]

Just went back and looked at the GFS run Don and I see by hour 78 its trying to spin up a weak LLC just off the lower Texas coast, interesting to say the least

[Rip76]

I'm thinking if something does spin up out of this, it would be before 78 hours.

[Stratton20]

18z GFS drops this “ idea” of a weak LLC forming, still watching just in case though

[don]

Loved this paragraph from HGX afternoon discussion today.

Rain chances remain in the 50%-70% range for today
and tomorrow, but there is some good news! Notice that we haven`t
discussed temperatures yet? If it was going to be significantly hot,
I would`ve led with that! It`s early July, and we`re expecting most
locations to remain below 90 degrees! Those that don`t get in on the
rainfall over the next couple of days (there will be at least a few
of you) will be the ones that find themselves with highs in the low
90s. Otherwise, the rain, cloud cover, and saturated grounds will
keep temperatures 5 to 7 degrees below normal in the afternoon hours
through Tuesday. That`s a pretty good trade off if you ask me!

Batiste

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.ph ... glossary=1