July 2021

[Stratton20]

00z GFS has trended wetter for houston the next 2 days, has 3-6 inches from houston and to the south

[don]

...South Texas...
Persistent onshore flow aided by a weak mid level impulse to the
west and the nocturnal low level jet should result in ongoing
convection after sunrise on Thursday. Although it's not
considered a tropical depression, the system has many of the
characteristics of one which explains its excessive rainfall
characteristics, most notably the high precipitable water values,
the high wet-bulb zero height, and the low-level inflow well
exceeding the mean 850-400 hPa flow. The expectation is that
throughout the period, the activity may begin to subside as a bulk
of the system begins to retrograde into Mexico. An additional 2
to 4 inches with local higher amounts will be possible and due to
very saturated soils (up to 14" of rain has already fallen with
the system), so a Moderate Risk remains in place.

[davidiowx]

I’m headed down to South Padre for family vacation on Friday.. will be really curious to see what route I have to end up taking if this thing continues to park it and just spin over the same general area these next 2 days.

You and I both!

[djmike]

According to “My Radar” app, the Low looks to be over water. That cant be good.

[Cpv17]

Up to 20” of rain has fallen around Rockport.

[Cpv17]

6z HRRR model putting out some huge totals.

[TexasBreeze]

I 10 is the wall for this event. Nothing much at all is getting past it and there is more sun too there.

[Scott747]

Was a little surprised yesterday that the NHC didn't at least mention it in the TWO with a 0/10% chance even though there was no real shot of development. At least they finally got around to doing so....

[Cpv17]

The 6z 3km NAM went nuts for Wharton County lol along with basically everywhere else south and sw of Houston.

[davidiowx]

^ Geeze yea it did. That has a foot of rain for me!

[davidiowx]

Some of the videos/images out of the Rockport area are incredible and sad.

[davidiowx]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu Jul 8 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Elsa, located inland over South Carolina.

1. A broad trough of low pressure located over southern Texas has been
producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms
over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. Although development of this
system is not anticipated since it is expected to remain over land,
heavy rainfall and flash flooding will be possible along the Texas
Gulf coast over the next few days. See products issued by your
local National Weather Service Forecast Office for additional
information.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.

Forecaster Papin/Pasch

[Cromagnum]

That is one intense line of convection stretching across the gulf from Mexico to almost Louisiana.

[don]

The 12z HRRR is pretty aggressive.

[Cpv17]

The 12z HRRR is pretty aggressive.

I’m really surprised more FFW haven’t been issued yet.

[TexasBreeze]

I haven't seen anything but sprinkles in Spring and things haven't pushed north so far. Kinda don't want to believe the hrrr, but cells are developing around League City so it is watch and see. Tropical systems tend to spread out as they weaken over land over time.

[don]

The low is expected to move further inland tonight (towards the north) and broaden out,which will pull allot of the heavy convection over the gulf inland.

[Kingwood36]

The low is expected to move further inland tonight (towards the north) and broaden out,which will pull allot of the heavy convection over the gulf inland.

Ya, I was just going to say it looks like it's moving away from us and we're getting dry slotted

[don]

Model have been pretty consistent since yesterday that the best chance of heavy rain for most of us, especially along and south of I-10 would be starting tonight.As the low broadens out and helps to spread out the rain.Seems like some areas are going to get a lot of rain tonight with a core rain setup.I assume HGX will expand the FF watch based on models this afternoon.They tend to be very conservative when it comes to FF watches compared to other forecast offices around us.I cant count how many times through the years I've seen flash flood watches all around us, with the HGX forecast area in a "doughnut hole", until the last minute. LOL

12Z GFS, most of the rainfall accumulation its showing falls tonight and overnight.

[mcheer23]

CMC shows higher rainfall totals as well..

through 27 hours

Sugar Land 7.24
Hobby 6.62
Bush 6.21
Katy 7.15

bullseye near ft bend/ wharton 9.48