July 2021

[Stratton20]

Cov17 yeah its prwtty close, we will see what the 12z model runs show, I definitely will be growing more concerned if the Euro spits out totals similar to the CMC

[TexasBreeze]

The gfs shows the high totals, but over the water instead.

[Stratton20]

GFS has trended wetter for our area and the 12z CMC has shifted the really high rain totals closer to houston

[don]

Models are trending further east with the cutoff low. Bringing more energy over the gulf as a surface low develops either just offshore or inland in south Texas.With the saturated grounds i wouldn't rule out the possibility of a inland depression forming due to the brown ocean effect, and the surface lows proximity to the coast. Both the 12Z GFS and CMC show the potential for excessive rainfall, they just differ on there placement of it, as to be expected in this range. And both models show precipitable waters on par with tropical cyclones. Stay weather aware as next week could get interesting around here.

[Stratton20]

DON Yeah i an starting to become more concerned with flooding problem after the 4th, will be interesting to see what the Euro shows in an hour

[DoctorMu]

I think we're down to Nowcasting.

NW conveyer belt of showers along the front, draped across the region, are becoming more potent.

https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/c ... &length=24

[DoctorMu]

GOES majestically tells the tale from the front to Hurricane Elsa

[DoctorMu]

Man, it's pouring up in CLL now. This could be an all-afternoon event.

Looks like 2-3 inch an hour stuff IF it's sustained. However, the cells are patchy and moving about 30 mph SE.

[DoctorMu]

Models are trending further east with the cutoff low. Bringing more energy over the gulf as a surface low develops either just offshore or inland in south Texas.With the saturated grounds i wouldn't rule out the possibility of a inland depression forming due to the brown ocean effect, and the surface lows proximity to the coast. Both the 12Z GFS and CMC show the potential for excessive rainfall, they just differ on there placement of it, as to be expected in this range. And both models show precipitable waters on par with tropical cyclones. Stay weather aware as next week could get interesting around here.

Right. Let's also keep in mind the potential for tropical development as the front sags into the GoM.

[Cpv17]

Models are trending further east with the cutoff low. Bringing more energy over the gulf as a surface low develops either just offshore or inland in south Texas.With the saturated grounds i wouldn't rule out the possibility of a inland depression forming due to the brown ocean effect, and the surface lows proximity to the coast. Both the 12Z GFS and CMC show the potential for excessive rainfall, they just differ on there placement of it, as to be expected in this range. And both models show precipitable waters on par with tropical cyclones. Stay weather aware as next week could get interesting around here.

Right. Let's also keep in mind the potential for tropical development as the front sags into the GoM.

Waters in the western Gulf are in the mid 80’s. Easily warm enough.

[Stratton20]

12z Euro has widespread 4-6 inches across SE texas, with a few bullseyes of 8+ inches in some spots

[mcheer23]

12z Euro has widespread 4-6 inches across SE texas, with a few bullseyes of 8+ inches in some spots

Some EURO ensembles 10-12

[Stratton20]

mcheer23 do you think the NWS might issue a flash flood watch by early next week? Seems most models are showing some impressive totals after the 4th

[davidiowx]

Looks like a long afternoon/evening of rain..

[snowman65]

hey...its flooding....shocker.

[DoctorMu]

Canadian - looks like a long week!

[Dls2010r]

Not a drop in Santa Fe yet

[don]

mcheer23 do you think the NWS might issue a flash flood watch by early next week? Seems most models are showing some impressive totals after the 4th

HGX mentions that possibility in their discussion this afternoon.

.LONG TERM [Monday Through Saturday]...

The first half of the week looks to continue on the wet side for a
majority of Southeast Texas as an upper low and northeast to southwest
oriented shear axis becomes established across the state. Heading toward
the end of the week and on into the weekend, some ridging aloft (centered
across the southwestern states) will attempt to edge into Texas and
potentially reduce our rainfall chances. Until that happens, precipitable
water values will remain on the high side, and that will support periods
of locally heavy rainfall (similar to what is being observed so far
this weekend). Generally expecting convection to be diurnally driven,
with late night through early morning activity mainly concentrated around
and especially to the south of Interstate 10 corridor, then spreading
inland as the day progresses. What areas and what timing of the rain`s
best chances and heaviest amounts will probably end up being influenced
by outflow boundary collisions and possible sea/bay breeze boundaries,
and we`ll just have to see how everything looks to set up each day.
We will have to closely monitor where the highest rainfall totals occur
each day and maybe consider a Flash Flood Watch if a large enough area
receives some hefty amounts. For now, it still looks like we can expect
long term period rainfall totals to average 3 to 5 inches with locally
higher amounts possible, especially for areas close to and south of
the Interstate 10 corridor. As we all know, a quick burst of heavy
rain in a slow moving storm could easily give localized spots a very
quick 2 to 4 inches resulting in an increased flood threat.

Best plan is to continue to monitor the weather forecasts each day
as the rainfall amounts and rates listed above could easily change.
Know where the heaviest rains have occurred, and allow yourself some
extra time if you must travel to or through those areas. Avoid any
flooded roads. Stay weather aware!

[djmike]

Flooded in Beaumont. Blah blah whats new.

[Cromagnum]

Maybe a half inch so far in Rosharon. Mother in law's flight was delayed from 10 AM until 10 PM because of a little rain too.