Re: July 2021
Posted: Fri Jul 09, 2021 10:13 am
I can get more rain in 30 min from a random pop up afternoon thunderstorm than this.Kingwood36 wrote: ↑Fri Jul 09, 2021 9:55 amI think this whole event was over hyped just a little bit
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Re: July 2021
Posted: Fri Jul 09, 2021 10:34 am
Yup this event was a bust and overhyped
Re: July 2021
Posted: Fri Jul 09, 2021 10:57 am
The folks in Rockport wouldn't agree with calling it a bust. That said it wasn't remotely close to a core rain event anywhere near us.
Re: July 2021
Posted: Fri Jul 09, 2021 11:12 am
Last two days. Maybe two showers and sprinkles. Been waiting for the main event FOR OUR AREA what local mets were forecasting for us. Im sure mid Texas its not considered a bust, but Id say Hou/Bmt from what locals mets were forecasting last 3 days and esp overnight and today, its a bust.
Re: July 2021
Posted: Fri Jul 09, 2021 11:29 am
It's starting to fill in on the east side of this impulse. I bet by early afternoon Houston will be dealing with it.
Re: July 2021
Posted: Fri Jul 09, 2021 12:57 pm
It's about to get interesting here!
Re: July 2021
Posted: Fri Jul 09, 2021 1:05 pm
Im not sure how this is a bust. It was never called for more than 2-3" inches in most of the metro and surrounding areas. I know some areas to the southwest got dry slotted but there is a strong storm pushing up from the south right now. Its not over.
Re: July 2021
Posted: Fri Jul 09, 2021 1:06 pm
Na its a bust regardless, I got maybe an inch here in katy
Re: July 2021
Posted: Fri Jul 09, 2021 1:10 pm
I don't know about that. Its done exactly what it was supposed to? It rained a ton down south near matagorda bay and the surrounding areas. If anything id say the time frame of clearing out was more of a bust reading space city weather and others. 1.5-2" is common in Harris County over the past 24 hours and it has more moving in. The only hype i saw was really on here with "what if it sets up more north" etc...
Re: July 2021
Posted: Fri Jul 09, 2021 1:20 pm
Overall it was a bust especially for the southwestern parts of the area.JDsGN wrote: ↑Fri Jul 09, 2021 1:10 pmI don't know about that. Its done exactly what it was supposed to? It rained a ton down south near matagorda bay and the surrounding areas. If anything id say the time frame of clearing out was more of a bust reading space city weather and others. 1.5-2" is common in Harris County over the past 24 hours and it has more moving in. The only hype i saw was really on here with "what if it sets up more north" etc...
Re: July 2021
Posted: Fri Jul 09, 2021 1:29 pm
And my power went out due to a little wind and light rain, lovely, absolute joke of a power grid,
Re: July 2021
Posted: Fri Jul 09, 2021 1:36 pm
Thank you,this event was not a bust from Harris county and eastward, there was never even a Flash flood watch issued for a reason for the eastern half of the area....1-3 inches was in the forecast and that's exactly what has happened with more rain still moving in.From the beginning the coastal bend region had the best chance of excessive rain due to its proximity to the low. And that is exactly what happened. I said this the other day but I will say it again.PLEASE stop reading model runs as forecast, they are not forecast, they are just potential scenarios.If the NWS doesn't have it in the official forecast it is NOT a Bust.JDsGN wrote: ↑Fri Jul 09, 2021 1:10 pmI don't know about that. Its done exactly what it was supposed to? It rained a ton down south near matagorda bay and the surrounding areas. If anything id say the time frame of clearing out was more of a bust reading space city weather and others. 1.5-2" is common in Harris County over the past 24 hours and it has more moving in. The only hype i saw was really on here with "what if it sets up more north" etc...
Re: July 2021
Posted: Fri Jul 09, 2021 1:42 pm
Im done, im filing a lawsuit against whoever supplies electricty to our house, if power grids cant handle a little tain and some wind, we got a huge problem in the state then, now my aquarium animals are all going to die without the filter on
Re: July 2021
Posted: Fri Jul 09, 2021 1:57 pm
Radar definitely filling in for the Houston area now.
Re: July 2021
Posted: Fri Jul 09, 2021 2:05 pm
Maybe this is the problem.Stratton20 wrote: ↑Fri Jul 09, 2021 1:42 pm Im done, im filing a lawsuit against whoever supplies electricty to our house, if power grids cant handle a little tain and some wind, we got a huge problem in the state then, now my aquarium animals are all going to die without the filter on
https://abc13.com/whats-on-fire-in-nor ... /10874405/
Re: July 2021
Posted: Fri Jul 09, 2021 2:05 pm
I'm perplexed reading comments saying how this event was a bust. Outside of the HRRR (which hasn't had the greatest reputation IMO with these cutoff and meso lows the last few months) showing 12-16" overnight for someone, it has mainly totaled what was forecasted several days in advance.
No need to flood this forum with images from archived model runs, but I just spent 20 minutes looking over the Euro, CMC, GFS, NAM, WRF and the consistency was anywhere from 1-4" across Houston metro and surrounding counties with isolated areas getting 6"+. The heaviest rainfall has always been focused to our southwest where they have received 12"+. In addition, most all global and hi-res models continued to advertise most of the rainfall would be focused south of I-10 which has also materialized.
To be honest, from a forecasting perspective, I think models did an excellent job. I think the rainfall amounts back that up as well...
This was HGX's graphic yesterday evening for the overnight and today's rains:
Here are the 24 hour rainfall totals that was valid at 7am this morning:
7-day rainfall totals:
If you rely on one model time after time with QPF, you will get burned 95% of the time. HGX doesn't always get it right either. Seems we only hear about when they are wrong. They get my compliments from their great discussions over the last several days. Great guys and gals over there who know what they are doing.
No need to flood this forum with images from archived model runs, but I just spent 20 minutes looking over the Euro, CMC, GFS, NAM, WRF and the consistency was anywhere from 1-4" across Houston metro and surrounding counties with isolated areas getting 6"+. The heaviest rainfall has always been focused to our southwest where they have received 12"+. In addition, most all global and hi-res models continued to advertise most of the rainfall would be focused south of I-10 which has also materialized.
To be honest, from a forecasting perspective, I think models did an excellent job. I think the rainfall amounts back that up as well...
This was HGX's graphic yesterday evening for the overnight and today's rains:
- HGX Rainfall Forecast
Here are the 24 hour rainfall totals that was valid at 7am this morning:
- 24-hour Rainfall
7-day rainfall totals:
- Weekly rainfall totals
If you rely on one model time after time with QPF, you will get burned 95% of the time. HGX doesn't always get it right either. Seems we only hear about when they are wrong. They get my compliments from their great discussions over the last several days. Great guys and gals over there who know what they are doing.
Re: July 2021
Posted: Fri Jul 09, 2021 2:07 pm
Rip76 no it isnt because they said it didnt inpact any outages in the area, I got a dog with cancer to take of, and no air conditioning is a huge problem, cant charge my phone, cant work on college work, foods probably going to spoil because of no power to the refrigerator, im suing these clowns
Re: July 2021
Posted: Fri Jul 09, 2021 2:16 pm
Belmer wrote: ↑Fri Jul 09, 2021 2:05 pm I'm perplexed reading comments saying how this event was a bust. Outside of the HRRR (which hasn't had the greatest reputation IMO with these cutoff and meso lows the last few months) showing 12-16" overnight for someone, it has mainly totaled what was forecasted several days in advance.
No need to flood this forum with images from archived model runs, but I just spent 20 minutes looking over the Euro, CMC, GFS, NAM, WRF and the consistency was anywhere from 1-4" across Houston metro and surrounding counties with isolated areas getting 6"+. The heaviest rainfall has always been focused to our southwest where they have received 12"+. In addition, most all global and hi-res models continued to advertise most of the rainfall would be focused south of I-10 which has also materialized.
To be honest, from a forecasting perspective, I think models did an excellent job. I think the rainfall amounts back that up as well...
This was HGX's graphic yesterday evening for the overnight and today's rains:
HGX graphic.jpg
Here are the 24 hour rainfall totals that was valid at 7am this morning:
24 hour rainfall.jpg
7-day rainfall totals:
Weekly rainfall.jpg
If you rely on one model time after time with QPF, you will get burned 95% of the time. HGX doesn't always get it right either. Seems we only hear about when they are wrong. They get my compliments from their great discussions over the last several days. Great guys and gals over there who know what they are doing.
Completely agree.
Re: July 2021
Posted: Fri Jul 09, 2021 2:17 pm
Something to think about. Since our experience with power failures across the state in February, we are now more clearly aware of the fragile state the power grid is in. We all know it will be a long time before that is taken care of. In the meantime, maybe consider purchasing a small generator to run the aquarium and maybe an appliance or two?Stratton20 wrote: ↑Fri Jul 09, 2021 2:07 pm Rip76 no it isnt because they said it didnt inpact any outages in the area, I got a dog with cancer to take of, and no air conditioning is a huge problem, cant charge my phone, cant work on college work, foods probably going to spoil because of no power to the refrigerator, im suing these clowns
Re: July 2021
Posted: Fri Jul 09, 2021 2:18 pm
I think what happened is some people were trying to wishcast the heaviest rains towards Houston for some reason, but when it didn’t happen they called it a bust.