July 2021

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
Stratton20
Posts: 4226
Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
Location: College Station, Texas
Contact:

Rip76 Got a highlighted 20% area off the southeast us coast for a quick spin up associated with this front , nothing in the GOM, but this is an indication that the tropics are starting to slowly wake up, I suspect we will see activity start to increase in the next 8-10 days
User avatar
tireman4
Global Moderator
Global Moderator
Posts: 4437
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
Location: Humble, Texas
Contact:

lood Advisory
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
234 PM CDT Wed Jul 21 2021

TXC201-212130-
/O.NEW.KHGX.FA.Y.0145.210721T1934Z-210721T2130Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Harris TX-
234 PM CDT Wed Jul 21 2021

The National Weather Service in League City has issued a

* Urban and Small Stream Flood Advisory for...
Harris County in southeastern Texas...

* Until 430 PM CDT.

* At 234 PM CDT, Doppler radar and automated rain gauges indicated
heavy rain due to thunderstorms. This may cause urban and small
stream flooding. Between 1 and 2 inches of rain have fallen.

Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Jersey Village, Hunters Creek Village, Bunker Hill Village, Piney
Point Village, Spring Branch North, Spring Valley, Spring Branch
West, northwestern Greater Heights, northwestern Northside /
Northline, Addicks Park Ten, Greater Greenspoint, Aldine,
northeastern Eldridge / West Oaks, Hedwig Village, Hilshire
Village, Fairbanks / Northwest Crossing, Langwood, Greater Inwood,
Spring Branch Central and Carverdale.

Additional rainfall of up to 2 inches is expected over the area.
This additional rain will result in minor flooding.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flood Advisory means river or stream flows are elevated, or
ponding of water in urban or other areas is occurring or is imminent.

Excessive runoff from heavy rainfall will cause flooding of small
creeks and streams, urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses
as well as other drainage areas and low lying spots.

&&

LAT...LON 2997 9543 2995 9536 2988 9537 2981 9544
2974 9550 2976 9564 2981 9566 2990 9559
2994 9551

$$


Flash Flood Warning
Flash Flood Warning
TXC201-212100-
/O.NEW.KHGX.FF.W.0029.210721T2009Z-210721T2100Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
309 PM CDT Wed Jul 21 2021

The National Weather Service in League City has issued a

* Flash Flood Warning for...
Harris County in southeastern Texas...

* Until 400 PM CDT.

* At 309 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing
heavy rain across the warned area. Between 2 and 3 inches of rain
have fallen. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected to begin
shortly.

HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.

SOURCE...Doppler radar and automated gauges.

IMPACT...Flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas,
highways, streets and underpasses as well as other
drainage and low lying areas.

* Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
Jersey Village, Hunters Creek Village, Bunker Hill Village, Piney
Point Village, Spring Branch North, Spring Branch West, Spring
Valley, eastern Addicks Park Ten, Hedwig Village, Hilshire
Village, Westbranch, Spring Branch Central, Carverdale, Fairbanks
/ Northwest Crossing, Langwood, Spring Branch East, Greater
Inwood, Greater Uptown, Central Northwest and Memorial.

Additional rainfall amounts up to 1 inch are possible in the warned
area.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don`t drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

Excessive runoff from heavy rainfall will cause flooding of small
creeks and streams, urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses
as well as other drainage areas and low lying spots.

&&

LAT...LON 2977 9560 2976 9549 2989 9548 2988 9560

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR AND GAUGE INDICATED

$$
User avatar
DoctorMu
Posts: 5648
Joined: Sun Jun 28, 2015 11:58 am
Location: College Station
Contact:

My backyard and frontyard are redefining Donut Hole today. How can we possibly miss these packed but scattered passing showers?? Only days away from The Big Suck and my grass is drying out. I need to mow and if it doesn't rain today, I'll need to go full monty on the sprinklers tonight in the front and tomorrow in the back... and the city of College Station charges for water like it's liquid gold. But it's not. The high levels of sodium in our water make it alkaline, so metal, grass, trees are not happy. The lawn is due for more Sta-Green high nitrogen feed with 2% iron, but brown patches, chinch bugs will descend. :cry:

Going to enjoy one last day of emerald green grass. Will have to feed and water all the trees tomorrow two...and now they're spoiled by highs in the upper 80s and actual summer rainfall.

Horticulture in the Texas Brazos Valley - it's not for the faint of heart. :lol:
User avatar
srainhoutx
Site Admin
Site Admin
Posts: 19612
Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 2:32 pm
Location: Maggie Valley, NC
Contact:

Woke up at 5 AM and had to close my bedroom windows. It was a unusually chilly 56F here in the Smoky Mountains on July 21st! I don't miss running the A/C from early March to late November in SE Texas. Keep an eye on the Tropics as we turn the calendar to August. It's looking like an active peak Hurricane Season!
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
User avatar
DoctorMu
Posts: 5648
Joined: Sun Jun 28, 2015 11:58 am
Location: College Station
Contact:

srainhoutx wrote: Wed Jul 21, 2021 7:10 pm Woke up at 5 AM and had to close my bedroom windows. It was a unusually chilly 56F here in the Smoky Mountains on July 21st! I don't miss running the A/C from early March to late November in SE Texas. Keep an eye on the Tropics as we turn the calendar to August. It's looking like an active peak Hurricane Season!
Glad you're enjoying it! (don't rub it in)

Really, up until this week it's been eastern NC weather with scattered showers on most days and high around 90°F. However, the Big Suck is coming and if we donut hole any more this week, we'll need to change the name of the city from name College Station to Shipley's.

We'll keep an eye on the front remnant and then BoC and the usual suspects in August.
Last edited by DoctorMu on Wed Jul 21, 2021 7:25 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Stratton20
Posts: 4226
Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
Location: College Station, Texas
Contact:

srainhoutx I definitely agree about watching the tropica in August and beyond, I got a feeling we will be tracking a lot of potential storms
User avatar
jasons2k
Posts: 5361
Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2010 12:54 pm
Location: Imperial Oaks
Contact:

No rain again today. By the end of July, my actuals will probably be very close to climatology at this point.

Pool dig scheduled for Friday 🤞🤞🤞🤞🤞🤞
User avatar
DoctorMu
Posts: 5648
Joined: Sun Jun 28, 2015 11:58 am
Location: College Station
Contact:

I'm watering the front, tempting the cell lurking about 5 miles from the house. It appears to be turning tail and running north with the rest of the scattered line. :(
Stratton20
Posts: 4226
Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
Location: College Station, Texas
Contact:

http://mikeventrice.weebly.com/mjo.html
This link shows the MJO and what we can expect going forward, as early as the 23rd you can see on this chart that some of the blue is creeping into the gulf which indicates rising air, which means a favorable phase of the MJO is on the move towards the atlantic, may see activity start to increase within the next 8-10 days
Stratton20
Posts: 4226
Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
Location: College Station, Texas
Contact:

Tonights model runs got a bit interesting, both the CMC and ICON models are hinting at the possibility of a low pressure system forming in the gulf roughly 6 days from now, especially the ICON, GFS doesnt show anything tho🤔🤔
User avatar
don
Posts: 2576
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 3:33 pm
Location: Heights
Contact:

Yep I've been noticing that also.Models are showing a broad area of low pressure developing in the eastern gulf off of the frontal boundary and heading in our general direction in a few days.Due to a cutoff low sitting over Baja. Non are showing tc genesis at the moment though,but something to keep an eye on.
Stratton20
Posts: 4226
Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
Location: College Station, Texas
Contact:

Don I agree it something to watch, Gulf temps are around 86-88 degrees, that is fuel for something to form, definitely something to monitor,12z Icon tries to spin up a depression and head it towards the Texas Border, definitely interesting
User avatar
tireman4
Global Moderator
Global Moderator
Posts: 4437
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
Location: Humble, Texas
Contact:

000
FXUS64 KHGX 221129
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
629 AM CDT Thu Jul 22 2021

.AVIATION [12Z TAF Issuance]...

Showers and a couple thunderstorms already going at the coast
southwest of the TAF sites near Matagorda Bay. Expect them to
expand up the coast towards coastal sites later this morning, then
push inland on the seabreeze this afternoon. Not high enough
confidence for an explicit thunder mention at CLL, but have at
least VCTS for a time everywhere else at some point today.

Not expecting high IFR/MVFR CIGs overnight after thunderstorms
dissipate this evening with ridge building in for the weekend.
But, have FEW/SCT mentions in case.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 409 AM CDT Thu Jul 22 2021/...

.DISCUSSION...

A summertime ridge is making its way into the region, as we are in
a transition from the rainy pattern of the past several days into
a hotter and drier setup this weekend. After the stretch we`ve had
lately, it would be no surprise to see people want to take
advantage of the fair weather to spend as much time as possible
outdoors enjoying the sun or do as much delayed outdoor work.
We certainly won`t argue against that urge, though we do want to
make sure that with a sharp increase in temps, folks are thinking
about heat safety. Heat advisories are possible - but even heat
that falls short of those thresholds in this area can be
dangerous if you push your body too hard. Take it easy, stay
hydrated, and keep heat stress out of the arrival of hot and fair
weather.


.SHORT TERM [Through Friday Night]...

Coastal showers are beginning to form up again very early this
morning, and as of 4am stretch from below Matagorda Bay all the
way up to around San Luis Pass. This should continue to expand up
the coast through the early morning hours. These early showers
will be the initial phase of today`s pattern of showers and
storms that will spread inland through the day, mainly along the
seabreeze.

With ridging gradually building in from the east, I continue the
trend of trimming the highest PoPs closer to the expected location
of the seabreeze boundary, and trim things down even more tomorrow
to slight chance at most as the ridge really begins to take
control of the NW Gulf region. Similarly, I nudge high temps today
up into the lower 90s, and into the lower to middle 90s on
Friday.


.LONG TERM [Saturday Through Thursday]...

A deep strong ridge should be in place by the weekend, and with it
we will be looking for hot/dry weather across SE TX. As such, heat
safety will be the main concern as forecast high temperatures from
the mid to upper 90s lead to heat index values from 105 to 110 (or
higher) through the afternoon/early evening hours for both Sat and
Sun. Heat Advisories may be needed for this time frame. Be wary of
the potential for heat-related illnesses if outdoors for any exten-
ded periods and remember to stay hydrated.

Otherwise, 00Z long-range guidance currently hinting at the return
of POPs a bit earlier than previous runs. Global models seem to be
focusing on a poorly defined TUTT low approaching us from the east
(via the northern Gulf) with elevated PWs (2.1-2.3") reaching SETX
late Mon afternoon. Not entirely confident of this scenario playing
out this exact way at this time but it does look like the forecast
will be trending back to `wet` by next week. So for now, will keep
POPs in a generally diurnal pattern...kinda starting Mon but prob-
ably more like Tues on into Thurs. With the more tropical air mass
moving in and perhaps more clouds/rain, high temperatures could be
a bit cooler, but will continue to err on the side of warm (mainly
mid 90s inland...lower 90s at the coast).


.MARINE...

A few showers are beginning to redevelop very early this morning
at the Gulf coast. Light, mainly south to southwest winds will
persist through tonight. By tonight, southerly flow will tend to
dominate. The early showers are the beginning to one last pattern
of scattered showers and storms through the afternoon. While not
totally dry, some showers and storms may still be in the picture
Friday. Fair weather is expected this weekend as high pressure
builds into the area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL) 91 75 95 75 96 / 20 20 20 0 0
Houston (IAH) 91 76 95 76 96 / 60 30 20 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 90 83 91 82 93 / 60 10 10 10 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Luchs
SHORT TERM...Luchs
LONG TERM...41
AVIATION...Luchs
MARINE...Luchs
Stratton20
Posts: 4226
Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
Location: College Station, Texas
Contact:

Might have to be on gulf watch in the next 6 days potentially, models continue to hint at an area of broad and weak low pressure forming in the gulf before slowly drifting our way by Tuesday or so, 12z ICON is by far the most “aggressive” as it develops a weak tropical depression and sends it our way, none of the other models are showing more than just an area of Low Pressure right now, definitely something to monitor however
Stratton20
Posts: 4226
Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
Location: College Station, Texas
Contact:

18z ICON continues to try to spin up an area of low pressure in the gulf around 5.5-6 days from now
User avatar
DoctorMu
Posts: 5648
Joined: Sun Jun 28, 2015 11:58 am
Location: College Station
Contact:

Welp. I was just about the mow the back. Thought I had about an hour before potential storms breezed through...when surprise - Rain!

The front lawn got a watering last night and should be very happy.
Attachments
rain.JUL22.jpg
TexasBreeze
Posts: 942
Joined: Sun Sep 26, 2010 4:46 pm
Location: NW Houston, TX
Contact:

Looks like you did really well this evening up there Dr.Mu for a finale for several days! I had a nice heavy one too earlier to wet my plants!
User avatar
jasons2k
Posts: 5361
Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2010 12:54 pm
Location: Imperial Oaks
Contact:

I’m glad you got some rain! Especially up there where it really counts!

I feel weird wishing for dry weather, and I can certainly understand why folks would love this pattern to last all summer - normally I would too!! We’re all set to break ground tomorrow. I’m hoping for little rain over the next 6-8 weeks while this puppy gets built :)
User avatar
DoctorMu
Posts: 5648
Joined: Sun Jun 28, 2015 11:58 am
Location: College Station
Contact:

TexasBreeze wrote: Thu Jul 22, 2021 8:01 pm Looks like you did really well this evening up there Dr.Mu for a finale for several days! I had a nice heavy one too earlier to wet my plants!
One last hurrah! Until football season.
User avatar
DoctorMu
Posts: 5648
Joined: Sun Jun 28, 2015 11:58 am
Location: College Station
Contact:

jasons2k wrote: Thu Jul 22, 2021 8:33 pm I’m glad you got some rain! Especially up there where it really counts!

I feel weird wishing for dry weather, and I can certainly understand why folks would love this pattern to last all summer - normally I would too!! We’re all set to break ground tomorrow. I’m hoping for little rain over the next 6-8 weeks while this puppy gets built :)
It's finally going to work out. Good luck! We have an extended period of dry weather for the next 10 days+. After the weekend, there will be a slight chance of isolated showers every day.

This one's more like a Purgatory Ridge, instead of the Death Ridge
Post Reply
  • Information
  • Who is online

    Users browsing this forum: Ahrefs [Bot], Bing [Bot] and 94 guests