Hurricane Season 2010--Thoughts and Predictions

[TexasMetBlake]

There ya go, Wxman. Post away!

[wxman57]

Thanks, just a short post for now. I'll be looking at the El Nino situation for the season but just as important (or more so) will be the NAO for the season. We'll be analyzing this winter's NAO and comparing to past seasons (back to 50 years) with a similar El Nino to Neutral transition to come up with analogs.

Early thoughts are that the continued NAO may translate to a weaker Bermuda High and a greater than average number of named storms, half of which may turn north before reaching the Caribbean or East U.S. Coast. Some will make it into the Gulf. Another factor will be GoM heat content after this very cold winter. Will the GoM recover or be cooler-than-average for the 2010 season?

[sambucol]

Another factor will be GoM heat content after this very cold winter. Will the GoM recover or be cooler-than-average for the 2010 season?

How can we complain about the cold winter when it may be beneficial come hurricane season?

[wxdata]

http://www.aolnews.com/nation/article/h ... 0/19336359

[Ptarmigan]

A tropical cyclone (tropical storm and hurricane) hits the Upper Texas Coast every (1.9) year. Hurricanes come every 3.6 years, while major hurricanes come every 10.8 years. This going back to 1870 to 2010.

Probability For Landfall on Upper Texas Coast
1 Tropical Cyclone=Every 1.9 years
1 Hurricane=Every 3.6 years
1 Major Hurricane=Every 10.8 years

2 Tropical Cyclones=Every 3.6 years
2 Hurricanes=Every 13 years
2 Major Hurricanes=Every 117 years

3 Tropical Cyclones=Every 6.9 years
3 Hurricanes=Every 46.7 years
3 Major Hurricanes=Every 1,260 years

4 Tropical Cyclones=Every 13 years
4 Hurricanes=Every 168 years
4 Major Hurricanes=Every 13,605 years

To put that in perspective, Houston area has a much better chance of getting +1" snow event or major hurricane making landfall than hitting single digit in the winter. Upper Texas Coast has a better chance of getting hit by two major hurricanes in one season than getting three +1" snowfall events in one winter.

Now, is it probable that the Upper Texas Coast has been hit by more than one major hurricane, more than likely yes. Is it also probable that there were single digit temperatures, more than likely yes.

[Paul]

A tropical cyclone (tropical storm and hurricane) hits the Upper Texas Coast every (1.9) year. Hurricanes come every 3.6 years, while major hurricanes come every 10.8 years. This going back to 1870 to 2010.

Probability For Landfall on Upper Texas Coast
1 Tropical Cyclone=Every 1.9 years
1 Hurricane=Every 3.6 years
1 Major Hurricane=Every 10.8 years

2 Tropical Cyclones=Every 3.6 years
2 Hurricanes=Every 13 years
2 Major Hurricanes=Every 117 years

3 Tropical Cyclones=Every 6.9 years
3 Hurricanes=Every 46.7 years
3 Major Hurricanes=Every 1,260 years

4 Tropical Cyclones=Every 13 years
4 Hurricanes=Every 168 years
4 Major Hurricanes=Every 13,605 years

To put that in perspective, Houston area has a much better chance of getting +1" snow event or major hurricane making landfall than hitting single digit in the winter. Upper Texas Coast has a better chance of getting hit by two major hurricanes in one season than getting three +1" snowfall events in one winter.

Now, is it probable that the Upper Texas Coast has been hit by more than one major hurricane, more than likely yes. Is it also probable that there were single digit temperatures, more than likely yes.

PT thats why your the stats guy!!! nice research.....just to make a point out there. IKE was no major hurricane as classified with sustained winds. SO again we can still say the Freeport to East Galveston has not had a major hurriance in 26 years.

[Paul]

My thoughts, as they have been much of the off season, is that Neutral conditions will be in store for the heart of the season. Not much difference in Neutral and LA NINA as far as number of storms. As WXMN suggested a weaker bermuda high would tend to curve most storms out to sea before 55W. Though I agree with this I do tend to think development after 55W is a good possibility. SO going out on a limb and say 14/8/3 for this season. 2-3 GOM threats. I do wonder about the ssts in the GOM rebounding but I have no doubt they will as they always have after a cold start to winter. Keep in mind though not firm science but snowfall in SE Texas, prior to TS season, we seem to get some nasty sotrms in the GOM. 2005 comes to mind.

Just my thoughts as of now.All indications is this will be active year.

[Katdaddy]

The 2010 season is on the way. I too expect a more active GOM this season due to neutral conditions. Hopefully the cold Winter will allow for cooler SSTs over the GOM. I still dont think I am ready for another TC threat. IKE was enough to last for awhile. It will be interesting to read Joe B's thoughts on the upcoming season......my guess is he will say look out NE US.

[wxman57]

Another factor will be GoM heat content after this very cold winter. Will the GoM recover or be cooler-than-average for the 2010 season?

How can we complain about the cold winter when it may be beneficial come hurricane season?

Because I hate cold weather?

As Ed mentioned, the Gulf will reheat in 2 ways - from above and from the Caribbean. The sun will eventually warm the Gulf back up. The Loop Current coming out of the Caribbean will also heat the Gulf, though only a small part of the Gulf. And that cold air made it all the way into the western Caribbean, so the NW Caribbean is also below normal. Here's the latest SST anomaly chart:



Note the very cool (relatively speaking to normal) in the Gulf.

Here's a current SST graphic that shows the Loop Current in the south central Gulf well. It's the green "tongue" poking up from the Caribbean. It's really not a very large area:



And here's a Gulf SST Anomaly chart. Note the dark blue area - that's very cold water flowing out of the Mississippi River. The orange blob to the east of the cold blue area is the tip of the Loop Current. That small yellow blob west of the blue area is likely a small eddy that broke off of the Loop Current.



A source for some great current and past SST temps and anomalies is Ryan Maue's Tropical Page:
http://www.coaps.fsu.edu/~maue/weather/

[Ptarmigan]

PT thats why your the stats guy!!! nice research.....just to make a point out there. IKE was no major hurricane as classified with sustained winds. SO again we can still say the Freeport to East Galveston has not had a major hurriance in 26 years.

Based on the statistics, the Upper Texas Coast could get hit by two major hurricanes in one season, which would happen every 117 years. Has it ever happened. Probably yes. Thing is, hurricane strength is dubious at best. They tend to over or under estimate. One thing I would be interested in, is what is the probability of a small, medium, and large hurricane hitting the Upper Texas Coast. This would be based on how large it was at landfall. I know there is data going back to the 19th century, but they are questionable once again. The more accurate one would be from 1988 to now.

1851-1987
ftp://rammftp.cira.colostate.edu/demari ... oradii.txt

1988-2008
ftp://rammftp.cira.colostate.edu/demari ... k_atlc.txt

Small
1932 Freeport Hurricane
Chantal
Jerry
Humberto

Medium
1900 Galveston Hurricane
Alicia

Large
1886 Indianola Hurricane-Hurricane force winds covered all of Texas coast. Probably the size of Katrina, Ike, or Gilbert.
Carla
Ike

[Katdaddy]

Well Joe B has posted a 2010 hurricane season prelim on his pay sight so I cannot post specifics it but I will say he expects a very active season with many landfalling storms.

[srainhoutx]

The PPV site CAPE, surface winds and 0-6 km shear won't display for me. Cheeses me off. But I like the look of the TTs and Lifted Indices, and turning with height and speed change on the 0Z Meteogram. I don't have to drive on Sunday, so a "fun-derstorm" could be fully appreciated. No outlook from SPC, however. No football this weekend, and while there are two races from California, Fontana, like Michigan, tend to be dull races.

MY GFS SB Cape on the AccuWx shows a small area of 1500 J/Kg during the period with convective fun. Sadly, maximum fun falls between the 12 hour time steps of the NIU skew-T generator. When we get inside 60 hours, NAM skew-Ts for anywhere are available in 6 hour increments.

Perhaps a new Topic is in order to cover the severe weather 'threat'.

[Paul]

JB at his best.. ..but I am thinking along the same lines. The anomalies in the MDR and Cape Verde are above normal......I did mention 2005 a few posts back....

I am not seeing anyone throwing numbers around? Think we need to have a March 1st thread on numbers ala 2K....just around the corner.

[srainhoutx]

JB at his best.. ..but I am thinking along the same lines. The anomalies in the MDR and Cape Verde are above normal......I did mention 2005 a few posts back....

I am not seeing anyone throwing numbers around? Think we need to have a March 1st thread on numbers ala 2K....just around the corner.

We are "testing" a Hurricane Central sub Forum at this time.

[Ptarmigan]

JB at his best.. ..but I am thinking along the same lines. The anomalies in the MDR and Cape Verde are above normal......I did mention 2005 a few posts back....

I am not seeing anyone throwing numbers around? Think we need to have a March 1st thread on numbers ala 2K....just around the corner.

2005 prediction was seriously underestimated from what I remember. 2005 prediction was from 11 to 20 storms forming, 6 to 10 hurricanes, and 3 to 7 major hurricanes. Turned out to be 28/15/7. Many storms formed closer to land in 2005 and there were not as many Cape Verde storms like 2004 and 2008. Also, the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico was much warmer. In addition, there was a monsoonal trough in the Caribbean.

1887, 1933, and 1995 are closest to 2005. I think 1933 had more storms than 2005. 1886 season probably most resembles 1985, 1989, 2004, and 2008.

2005 Hurricane Season Assessment
http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/expert ... y_2005.pdf

[Scott747]

lol

You can always rely on good ol JB/Accuweather. Thankfully I moved past that stage years ago.

Also looks like hurricane season is starting early...

‘Snow Hurricane’ Faces New York, Pennsylvania as Storm Nears

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2010-0 ... nears.html

A winter storm threatened to dump more than a foot (30 centimeters) of snow across parts of upstate New York and New England, while forecasters warned of an even more powerful system hitting the northeast tomorrow.

“You may hear it called a ‘snow hurricane’ because blizzard may not even do it justice,” said Alex Sosnowski, an expert senior meteorologist with AccuWeather Inc. in State College, Pennsylvania. “It is like we’re getting a decade’s worth of storms all in one season.”

[Paul]

thanks PT I agree but are you seeing the sst anomalies off of Cape Verde and the MDR and compare it to 2005?....Even the carib is running above normal. Give the GOM some time to rebound. It will not take long to heat up...

I am not saying we are going to see the same amount of storms as 05. What I am saying is that there are similarities.


BTW- PT if you really think about it all TS's are born over Africa with some developing before 55w and others after. The reason we saw so many landfalling TSs in 05 was the monsoon trog set up shop in the carib which helped Africa waves develope after 55w. That coupled with ssts were crazy high with little shear.

[Scott747]

lol

You can always rely on good ol JB/Accuweather. Thankfully I moved past that stage years ago.

Also looks like hurricane season is starting early...

‘Snow Hurricane’ Faces New York, Pennsylvania as Storm Nears

I started a thread for that...

http://forums.khou.com/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=37

To be honest I have little interest in NY weather which is what your JB thread title was about. It was the interjection of the new term 'snow hurricane' by another lead accuweather met that gave me an out to place it in this thread.

[srainhoutx]

After seeing some of the ECMWF data coming out, I will say that folks in the Islands may have to be very aware if that guidance verifies for the early part of the season.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... _forecast/

[Cycloneye]

After seeing some of the ECMWF data coming out, I will say that folks in the Islands may have to be very aware if that guidance verifies for the early part of the season.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... _forecast/

I am going to have to watch to the east constantly all season long.

Note=Glad that the hurricane central subforum is up.