August 2021: Major Hurricane Ida/SE Louisiana Landfall

[Stratton20]

The GFS continues to show nothing tropical threatening the gulf the next 16 days, I really find that hard to believe especially with the passage of the Active phase of the MJO next week, maybe the model needs another upgrade? Seeks like the GFS is struggling to pick up on this large scale weather feature

[Rip76]

Do we have haze from fires or dust?

[Stratton20]

Rip76 the haze you see is most likely from a fire

[BlueJay]

NOAA has updated its forecast calling for more storms this hurricane season.

Take from Space City Weather:

On Thursday NOAA released an updated version of its Atlantic season hurricane forecast and some media coverage framed it in a fairly intimidating way—suggesting the forecast had gotten "worse" or more dangerous in some way. The reality is that the forecast increased from an estimate of 13-20 named storms for this season to 15 to 21 named storms, and 6-10 hurricanes to 7 to 10 hurricanes.

This "increase" simply reflects the fact that the early season was a little more active than anticipated, and that overall nothing has changed with regard to tropical activity for the remainder of the 2021 Atlantic hurricane season. Frankly, we already knew this was going to be an active season. And as Matt wrote on Tuesday, the tropics are now heating up on schedule, with the next six to eight weeks are the time of greatest concern for Texas. Fortunately, there are no immediate threats to the Gulf of Mexico and we'll continue to take it day by day.

https://spacecityweather.com/enjoy-the- ... s-weekend/

Thanks Jasons! I guess that is somewhat comforting.
But if it just take one, it encourages me to continue to be weather aware.

I appreciate this forum..

[Kingwood36]

When is this damn rain suppose to stop?

[Stratton20]

12z ICON and CMC runs are hinting at possibly a gulf threat around 7 days from now, something to watch very carefully, 12 z Euro also hinting at a tropical wave entering the gulf around that time period as well, interesting days ahead

[Scott747]

For a few runs now the GFS and Euro in the long range are showing the possibility of a classic CC with 92l or the wave behind it. Longer range gets it all the way into the BoC. Nothing yet on the experimental hurricane model that I follow...

And in even longer range modeling (as if we need more, ha) the 45 day Euro for a few weeks now has a couple of major threats to the western gulf. This latest week has one each for the lower and upper Texas coast.

[Stratton20]

Scott747 yep latest Euro has a potential system in the Caribbean by next week, interesting days ahead

[Cpv17]

The 3-4 week outlook issued by the CPC today is alarming.

[Stratton20]

Cpv17 do you have a link? Or why is it alarming?

[DoctorMu]

Scattered showers from Austin getting clobbered again at the county line. The Aggiedome is back!

[Stratton20]

Cpv17 ah nvm I saw it on the CPC website, that is very alarming , above average precipitation in weeks 3/4 could lead to more gulf tropical mischief

[DoctorMu]

I’ll take some alarming Precipitation!

[Stratton20]

DoctorMu be careful what you wish for haha

[Stratton20]

Seems like the GFS is broken lol, isnt show much tropical activity the next 16 days, either this model needs a new upgrade or be prepared for a lot of surprise storms this season

[DoctorMu]

A summer like none other. The AggieDome surrendered... and there be whales!

OK...A greater miracle - actual August rain without a tropical system or tropical moisture. A pop up shower delivered and we're finishing about 20 minutes of rain.

Sprinklers on stun. Kirk out.

[jasons2k]

A summer like none other. The AggieDome surrendered... and there be whales!

OK...A greater miracle - actual August rain without a tropical system or tropical moisture. A pop up shower delivered and we're finishing about 20 minutes of rain.

Sprinklers on stun. Kirk out.

I’m glad you got some rain. Missed me here so I’ll be running the sprinklers first thing tomorrow.

[DoctorMu]

A summer like none other. The AggieDome surrendered... and there be whales!

OK...A greater miracle - actual August rain without a tropical system or tropical moisture. A pop up shower delivered and we're finishing about 20 minutes of rain.

Sprinklers on stun. Kirk out.

I’m glad you got some rain. Missed me here so I’ll be running the sprinklers first thing tomorrow.

Yeah - anything to take us closer to football season...

Is the pool cured and ready for filling yet?

[Cpv17]

Most of the rain has missed me this week. I’m thankful that we’ve gotten 2.5” of rain but other places all around me have doubled or tripled that. It was so dry here. The ground absorbed it so quickly and you couldn’t even tell it rained. No standing water anywhere. We barely got anything here the whole month of July.

[jasons2k]

A summer like none other. The AggieDome surrendered... and there be whales!

OK...A greater miracle - actual August rain without a tropical system or tropical moisture. A pop up shower delivered and we're finishing about 20 minutes of rain.

Sprinklers on stun. Kirk out.

I’m glad you got some rain. Missed me here so I’ll be running the sprinklers first thing tomorrow.

Yeah - anything to take us closer to football season...

Is the pool cured and ready for filling yet?

Yes, Roger that Captain.

The gunite is cured and gunite cleanup complete. I have to say our pool company did a good job with cleanup. I’ve seen some neighbors’ jobs where they didn’t do any cleanup until the end.

Tile and plumbing/equipment go in next week. Then electrical and plaster. The decking will be last. Still a few weeks away from filling but we’re making progress.