August 2021: Major Hurricane Ida/SE Louisiana Landfall

[AtascocitaWX]

AtascositaWX well gfs has oressure down to low 940’s upper 930’s before landfall so im just assuming thats near a cat 5 criteria

Thats a high Cat3 or Cat4. A Cat5 is is using in the 910-920 range. But I aint not expert!!!

[Stratton20]

AtascocitaWX I also believe the wind strength around the eye plays a role in determining what category the hurricane is, but id imagine anything below 950 Mb is mostly likely a high end Cat 3-4

[weatherguy425]

AtascocitaWX I also believe the wind strength around the eye plays a role in determining what category the hurricane is, but id imagine anything below 950 Mb is mostly likely a high end Cat 3-4

Category on the SS scale is determined solely, by wind speed. You can have a very low pressure and a large wind field that equates to "weaker" winds at the surface and a lesser category - a la Ike.

[tireman4]

Hurricane Hunters Going In Thursday

[AtascocitaWX]

This Thing is sure looking healthy today.

[Stratton20]

I feel like the hurricane hunters dont get enough credit, I mean flying into storms and hurricanes( even though this is just an invest) its pretty scary to do that, cant imagine the turbulence sucks when flying through a stronger system, but that is their job and without them, can yall imagine how much harder it would be to track systems?

[jasons2k]

What are the models saying about intensity?

The models can’t be trusted for intensity especially this far out.
But the the setup is there for potentially a large and powerful hurricane moving NW in the Gulf of Mexico.

[tireman4]

Wxman 57 on S2K

Beginning to think LA, not Texas for landfall. Really, anywhere from Corpus to the MS coast.

[Cromagnum]

Wxman 57 on S2K

Beginning to think LA, not Texas for landfall. Really, anywhere from Corpus to the MS coast.

It's a dartboard at this time. Maybe more like a roulette wheel. The 2nd half of that statement is far more important and everyone on the coast needs to be on the lookout.

[Cromagnum]

Wasn't Euro notoriously biased right last year, or am I misremembering?

[snowman65]

The GFS model has this thing taking a sharp right turn about 200 miles from the border ad heading to baton Rouge area.....crazy.

[Cromagnum]

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/w ... 12.64,1314

[AtascocitaWX]

Wxman 57 on S2K

Beginning to think LA, not Texas for landfall. Really, anywhere from Corpus to the MS coast.

Wow what a differnce in 24 hours, Went from Mexico to Texas now to LA and can easly shift back in the next 24.

[Stratton20]

Snowman65 thats the 06z GFS run,!12z comes out in about 1 hour, will see if anythings changed

[Kingwood36]

Wxman 57 on S2K

Beginning to think LA, not Texas for landfall. Really, anywhere from Corpus to the MS coast.

Well there it is...the almighty has spoken

[sau27]

and the 12z GFS is rolling....

[msc7363]

And this from wxman57:

I began upping my hurricane supplies yesterday. All batteries fully charged. Only thing left for me to do is to get gas for the generator, which I won't do until a day or so before impact.

[redneckweather]

Wxman 57 on S2K

Beginning to think LA, not Texas for landfall. Really, anywhere from Corpus to the MS coast.

Well there it is...the almighty has spoken

Lol, he's been wrong many of times over the years. Now where he really shines is winter weather and arctic fronts.

[Stratton20]

Until we see where the center forms, and until it makes the jog North, im not letting my guard down, texas is still very much in the card deck here, not comparing this to IKE in terms of strength, but Im pretty sure model runs originally had IKE going up the east coast and we all know what happened, any sort of deviation to the left or right, will ultimately determine our impacts

[CRASHWX]

Models are gonna be like a gold medalists gymnast…flipping and flopping till a center actually forms…then with hunters and noaa jet getting the upper atmosphere we will have a much better idea.