August 2021: Major Hurricane Ida/SE Louisiana Landfall

[Stratton20]

12z CMC develops a weak depression or tropical storm and takes it toward the upper Texas Or SW Lousiana coast about 8 days from now

[Cpv17]

12z CMC develops a weak depression or tropical storm and takes it toward the upper Texas Or SW Lousiana coast about 8 days from now

Yep. That’s the first wave out there closest to the Caribbean that the NHC is currently giving a 10% chance of development.

[Stratton20]

CPV17 thats what I figured, we will see if this trend continues, the CMC actually was pretty good during last hurricane season, definitely something to watch if this wave gets into the western Caribbean about 6 days from now

[Stratton20]

12z Euro also hinting at some tropical mischief in the western caribbean around the 16/17th timeframe

[DoctorMu]

12z CMC develops a weak depression or tropical storm and takes it toward the upper Texas Or SW Lousiana coast about 8 days from now

Yep. That’s the first wave out there closest to the Caribbean that the NHC is currently giving a 10% chance of development.

No want. That would only give our first 100°F day.

[Cpv17]

12z CMC develops a weak depression or tropical storm and takes it toward the upper Texas Or SW Lousiana coast about 8 days from now

Yep. That’s the first wave out there closest to the Caribbean that the NHC is currently giving a 10% chance of development.

No want. That would only give our first 100°F day.

That area around southwestern LA is like a magnet to tc’s.

[Stratton20]

12z Euro in the 8-10 day window is hinting at some tropical waves making their way towards the gulf , 92L will likely recurve up the East US Coast, but after that the Euro is suggesting several tropical waves could stay on a more southerly track through the Caribbean and possibly into the gulf

[Stratton20]

00z GFS gets really interesting towards the days 9-10 window in the caribbean

[Cpv17]

We need to be watching the wave that’s currently coming off the African coast.

[cperk]

We need to be watching the wave that’s currently coming off the African coast.

I agree but we need to keep an eye on 94L too.

[Kingwood36]

Models don't seem to concerned about these invest and neither am i

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 091126
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
626 AM CDT Mon Aug 9 2021

.AVIATION [12Z TAF Issuance]...

A MVFR cloud deck is edging its way into our northern counties
with ceilings around 2,000 ft at CLL and UTS. These should be the
only two sites that the cloud deck makes it to, but there is a
slim chance for CXO to hit MVFR briefly before 15z. Southerly
winds at 10-12 kts with gusts up to 18-20 kts will help mix out in
low-level cloud cover in place. Our usual summer pattern continues
with early morning rain showers along the coast followed by
isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms in the late
morning/afternoon hours. Started with VCSH for GLS and LBX at 14z
followed by VCTS at 17z. Inland sites have VCTS wording around
18z. Showers/storms along with gusty winds will diminish shortly
after sunset. Winds become light and variable once again overnight
with another round MVFR ceilings making their way in on early
Tuesday morning.

Batiste

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 322 AM CDT Mon Aug 9 2021/...

.SHORT TERM [Today Through Tuesday Night]...

The wise words of a famous baseball player perfectly sums up the
forecast over the next couple of days..."it`s like deja vu all over
again." With surface high pressure steady in the eastern Gulf and
weak upper-level ridging, our weather pattern continues to remain
essentially the same day in and day out. Afternoon temperatures for
Monday and Tuesday top out in the mid-to-upper 90s, which is right
around normal. With persistent onshore flow continuing to pump in
warm, moist air from the Gulf, we`ll have to keep a close eye on the
heat index. We will be knocking on the door of a Heat Advisory in
the early part of the work week with heat indices ranging from 105-
108. On Sunday, some locations managed to briefly reach the 108 mark
on the heat index. A heat index value of 107 has the same impacts as
one at 108. So even if a Heat Advisory is not issued, you should
still continue to practice heat safety. Drink plenty of water and
look before you lock your vehicle.

Now let`s talk about something a little bit cooler...rain! As we all
know our typical summertime pattern includes isolated to scattered
showers/thunderstorms that move inland throughout the day along the
seabreeze. This will hold true over the next couple of days. The
latest run of the CAMs indicate a somewhat early start for light
rain showers along the coast in the morning hours, similar to
what occurred on Sunday. PoPs range from 20%-30% in the
morning/afternoon hours for most of the CWA. Think of it as Mother
Nature spinning a roulette wheel...a few of us will get lucky and
receive rain as a relief from the heat, but there is a higher
probability that the lawn remains dry.

Batiste

&&

.LONG TERM [Wednesday Through Monday]...

Mainly a fcst of persistence considering overall pattern doesn`t
change a whole lot. Sfc & H85 pressures climb a bit from the east
during the late week & early weekend time period, but probably won`t
make too much of a noticeable difference with isolated to
occasionally scattered showers and thunderstorms still anticipated
(mainly near the coast in the overnight-early morning hours and
further inland in the afternoon). Daytime highs have been running a
touch above guidance so nudged them up a degree or two at times.
Cool front is still fcst to sag swd thru the midwest/TN Valley and
into the nctl Gulf states. Could see a chance for some increased
POPs should associated shra/tstms or boundaries manage to backdoor
into ne/n parts of the CWA Sat-Mon. 47

&&

.MARINE...

Onshore flow will prevail thru the period. Wind speeds are currently
close to caution criteria, but anticipate they`ll slightly diminish
in the coming hours. Rinse-repeat into the early to Tue night
(highest winds at night offshore and 3-5ft seas). Beach Patrol
hoisted their red flags for a high rip current risk yesterday and
suspect we`ll need to further extend the Rip Statement that we have
out thru mid morning, but will let the dayshift touch base with them
in the morning for an update. Gradient relaxes and lighter winds &
lower seas are expected going into the second half of the week. 47

&&

.TROPICAL...

Locally, tropics should be quiet thru the week. That said, it might
be worth keeping an eye on the eastern Gulf this weekend into early
next week for some possible mischief there as some medium range
models are suggesting. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL) 95 77 96 76 96 / 10 0 10 0 10
Houston (IAH) 96 79 95 78 95 / 30 0 30 0 30
Galveston (GLS) 91 83 89 83 90 / 30 10 30 10 20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...High Rip Current Risk until 10 AM CDT this morning for the
following zones: Bolivar Peninsula...Brazoria
Islands...Galveston Island...Matagorda Islands.

GM...None.

&&

[Stratton20]

Im more interested in the potential tropical mischief we could be seeing in the western Caribbean about 9-10 days from now , the GFS continues to hint at a tropical wave moving into that region and potentially developing

[Cpv17]

Im more interested in the potential tropical mischief we could be seeing in the western Caribbean about 9-10 days from now , the GFS continues to hint at a tropical wave moving into that region and potentially developing

That’s the one that’s just now coming off the coast of Africa. 94L looks to be a Florida storm right now.

[Stratton20]

Cpv17 Actually I think that the GFS and some ensemble members are picking up on 93L , because as soon as the moisture from 93L passes the windward islands and into the Caribbean, thats when it starts to show some development

[DoctorMu]

Im more interested in the potential tropical mischief we could be seeing in the western Caribbean about 9-10 days from now , the GFS continues to hint at a tropical wave moving into that region and potentially developing

That’s the one that’s just now coming off the coast of Africa. 94L looks to be a Florida storm right now.

Euro sees a weak depression/low off the Florida coast Aug 16-17.

Nothing else cooking - except us under high heat indexes!

[Stratton20]

Im thinking we need to really keep a close eye on 93 L as its moisture moves westward into the caribbean , the 12z GFS continues to show development from 93L once it gets into the western caribbean and then perhaps into the gulf around 10 days from now, their is some ensemble support as well for this

[Cpv17]

Im more interested in the potential tropical mischief we could be seeing in the western Caribbean about 9-10 days from now , the GFS continues to hint at a tropical wave moving into that region and potentially developing

That’s the one that’s just now coming off the coast of Africa. 94L looks to be a Florida storm right now.

Euro sees a weak depression/low off the Florida coast Aug 16-17.

Nothing else cooking - except us under high heat indexes!

We will need to watch the tropics during the Aug 20th through 25th timeframe. Strong agreement right now that the wave exiting Africa will be in the Gulf during that time period and the MJO phase will favor development in that region as well.

[Stratton20]

Cpv17 Yup The latest GFS develops this wave in the W. Caribbean and moves into the gulf possibly around the 19th or so, also very concerned after seeing a post by a reliable meteorologist that the MJO around that time will be heavily favoring the Western Caribbean and Gulf for development , definitely lots to watch in the coming days ahead

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 091732
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1232 PM CDT Mon Aug 9 2021

.AVIATION [18Z TAF Issuance]...

VFR conditions will prevail today with southerly winds 10-12 kts
gusting up to 20 kts. Afternoon showers and thunderstorms have
been stubborn to form today despite favorable conditions, but
still expect some very isolated showers and storms late this
afternoon through early evening. Exact location of this isolated
convection remains uncertain, so just kept in VCTS for now. Expect
short-fused TEMPOs for stronger and variable winds along with
MVFR or IFR visibilities and ceilings should a shower or storm
pass over an airport. Repeat again for tomorrow, but coverage of
afternoon showers and storms looks to be a little greater. MVFR
ceilings sneak down for our northern sites overnight (CLL, UTS,
and CXO), but should lift back to VFR a few hours after sunrise.

KBL

&&