August 2021: Major Hurricane Ida/SE Louisiana Landfall

[DoctorMu]

https://weather.us/cyclone-tracks/euro/ ... 2-240.html

I think that's Euro for "I don't know."

[DoctorMu]

I believe the reason why the GFS is much further south is because it develops the southern part of the wave where some other models have cyclogenesis occurring further north. Where this potential system consolidates is going to have big impacts on where it goes.

Yep.

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status ... 2822356993

Initial conditions problem. We won't know until there are initial conditions. Not to mention NHC hurricane hunters collecting data.

[Cpv17]

Anyone know what the 18z Euro is showing? I know it doesn’t go that far out so you might not be able to tell much.

[DoctorMu]

Part posted by Don, but...

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Mon Aug 23 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The Weather Prediction Center is issuing Public Advisories on
Post-Tropical Cyclone Henri, located inland near southern New
England.

1. A broad low pressure area is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms over the east-central tropical Atlantic more than 800
miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands. Little development is
expected during the next couple of days due to only marginally
conducive ocean temperatures. Thereafter, however, some gradual
development is possible through the end of the week while the system
moves northwestward to northward at 10 to 15 mph over the central
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

2. A tropical wave over the eastern Caribbean Sea is expected to form a
broad area of low pressure over the southwestern Caribbean Sea by
late week. Thereafter, environmental conditions are forecast to be
favorable for gradual development while the system moves
west-northwestward to northwestward over the northwestern Caribbean
Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

3. A low pressure area over the far eastern tropical Atlantic about 500
miles south-southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some slow development is
possible over the next several days while the disturbance moves
westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the eastern
tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Public advisories issued by the Weather Prediction Center on
Post-Tropical Cyclone Henri can be found under AWIPS header
TCPAT3, WMO header WTNT33 KWNH, and on the web at
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov

Forecaster Pasch

[DoctorMu]

Anyone know what the 18z Euro is showing? I know it doesn’t go that far out so you might not be able to tell much.

The 18z models were trash last year. Will have to wait for the 0z and additional data collection. The fate of the ridge should hopefully have more clarity within the next 48 hours.

[Stormlover2020]

Anyone know what the 18z Euro is showing? I know it doesn’t go that far out so you might not be able to tell much.

Ensembles go out to 144 so we will know around 8:15 I’ll let u know

[DoctorMu]

Today was the first real "surface of the sun" day as far as heat. Tomorrow and possibly Thursday will be no better. Clouds and chance of spotty showers beginning on Thursday.

So, it appears we have a "Battle of the Bulge." GFS is holding firm on a blocking ridge in place in a week. Euro is eyeing a weakness, bringing the TC into the central TX coast.

[Cpv17]

Today was the first real "surface of the sun" day as far as heat. Tomorrow and possibly Thursday will be no better. Clouds and chance of spotty showers beginning on Thursday.

So, it appears we have a "Battle of the Bulge." GFS is holding firm on a blocking ridge in place in a week. Euro is eyeing a weakness, bringing the TC into the central TX coast.

That’s a massive ridge on the GFS. That baby covers A LOT of territory lol dang near half of the lower 48.

[DoctorMu]

12z Euro has the TC hang just off Corpus for a day, then head slowly inland as a low end hurricane, and north through over the next 2 days.

Make of it what you will. Euro is counting on a weak gap in the ridge. Ensembles are ext at 18Z, then the 0Z overnight.

[DoctorMu]

Today was the first real "surface of the sun" day as far as heat. Tomorrow and possibly Thursday will be no better. Clouds and chance of spotty showers beginning on Thursday.

So, it appears we have a "Battle of the Bulge." GFS is holding firm on a blocking ridge in place in a week. Euro is eyeing a weakness, bringing the TC into the central TX coast.

That’s a massive ridge on the GFS. That baby covers A LOT of territory lol dang near half of the lower 48.

It sure felt like it on campus today. A massive ridge pressing down on our heads. An adiabatic nightmare. Lucky not to come back home as a proverbial cow skull on the side of the road.

[Stratton20]

DoctorMu on campus? Do you teach at A&M?

[Cpv17]

This CPC forecast is looking really nice for rain!!

[Texaspirate11]

Seems like the models love to wipe us out first.

[Kingwood36]

Might as well just invest the whole area lol

[Stratton20]

Kingwood36 that pretty much sums up every hurricane season haha

[Texaspirate11]

Might as well just invest the whole area lol

Lol!!! That covers it!

[DoctorMu]

Might as well just invest the whole area lol

Time to take out the sharpie!

[captainbarbossa19]

As much as I want to believe the GFS, I would not be surprised to see enough of a weakness for this approaching system to threaten Texas. I think this especially considering that the ridge has had a tendency not to stay over us long throughout this summer.

[Stratton20]

Captainbarbossa19 I got a gut feeling thus might be our storm, now I certainly hope it isnt, but I definitely got a weird feeling about this potential storm, just hope it doesnt pull a grace and rapidly intensifies, but who knows

[Rip76]

Today was the first real "surface of the sun" day as far as heat. Tomorrow and possibly Thursday will be no better. Clouds and chance of spotty showers beginning on Thursday.

So, it appears we have a "Battle of the Bulge." GFS is holding firm on a blocking ridge in place in a week. Euro is eyeing a weakness, bringing the TC into the central TX coast.

That’s a massive ridge on the GFS. That baby covers A LOT of territory lol dang near half of the lower 48.

It sure felt like it on campus today. A massive ridge pressing down on our heads. An adiabatic nightmare. Lucky not to come back home as a proverbial cow skull on the side of the road.

Haha. Dead