August 2021: Major Hurricane Ida/SE Louisiana Landfall

[Andrew]

Andrew I lived in a desert for 2 years, dry spells definitely are not welcomed here lol

I understand that, but having a hurricane blow through the community similar to Ike does a ton of damage to property and is a huge threat to life. It's not like we are in a huge drought across the region.

[Stratton20]

Andrew im not asking for a hurricane, i just want some rain to break this unbearable heat right now, it also makes my headaches worse lol

[Scott747]

Sizable shift s on the 0z HWRF

[Andrew]

Sizable shift s on the 0z HWRF

Large shift SW. It does seem like it takes a more realistic track across the Carribean and doesn't immediately track NNW across Cuba. Then again, it could be having trouble detecting the weakness across the Eastern Gulf of Mexico as a shortwave trough tracks west.

[Andrew]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Thu Aug 26 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Shower and thunderstorm activity is gradually becoming better
organized in association with a trough of low pressure located a
couple hundred miles south of Jamaica. While recent satellite wind
data indicate that the system does not yet have a well-defined
circulation, environmental conditions remain conducive for
additional development, and a tropical depression is expected to
form later today or tomorrow. The system is forecast to move
northwestward over the northwestern Caribbean Sea later today, near
Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico on Friday, and into the
Gulf of Mexico this weekend. Regardless of development, heavy
rainfall and flooding will be possible through the weekend in
portions of Central America, the Yucatan Peninsula, Jamaica, the
Cayman Islands, and Cuba. In addition, this system could bring
dangerous impacts from storm surge, wind, and heavy rainfall to
portions of the coasts of Louisiana, Texas, and the Mexican state of
Tamaulipas late this weekend and early next week. However,
uncertainty remains large since the system has yet to form.
Interests in these areas should closely monitor the progress of this
system and ensure they have their hurricane plan in place. An Air
Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate
the system later today, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

2. A broad trough of low pressure is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms over the central tropical Atlantic about 650 miles
east-southeast of Bermuda. Environmental conditions are forecast to
be generally conducive for development, and a tropical depression
is likely to form late this week or this weekend while the system
moves slowly northeastward over the central Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

3. A tropical wave over the far eastern tropical Atlantic located
several hundred miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands is
producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some development
of this system is possible over the next several days while it moves
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the eastern tropical
Atlantic. Upper-level winds are forecast to become less conducive
for development by early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

Forecaster Papin/Beven

[Scott747]

Sizable shift s on the 0z HWRF

Large shift SW. It does seem like it takes a more realistic track across the Carribean and doesn't immediately track NNW across Cuba. Then again, it could be having trouble detecting the weakness across the Eastern Gulf of Mexico as a shortwave trough tracks west.

Yeah it's certainly going to be an outlier. Gonna be a monster run and looks to be heading for the mid Texas coast. It's notorious for these kinda swings early in so hard to take it seriously for now.

[Andrew]

Sizable shift s on the 0z HWRF

Large shift SW. It does seem like it takes a more realistic track across the Carribean and doesn't immediately track NNW across Cuba. Then again, it could be having trouble detecting the weakness across the Eastern Gulf of Mexico as a shortwave trough tracks west.

Yeah it's certainly going to be an outlier. Gonna be a monster run and looks to be heading for the mid Texas coast. It's notorious for these kinda swings early in so hard to take it seriously for now.

It may be trying to develop the MLC to the south versus the LLC to the north that the other models are hinting will continue to develop. Interesting scenario.

[davidiowx]

Andrew im not asking for a hurricane, i just want some rain to break this unbearable heat right now, it also makes my headaches worse lol

This has been one heck of a wet summer and cooler than the last several years. You act like this is the worst summer of all time. I’ve seen my share of wish casting and you’re up there in the most passive way.

[Scott747]

Large shift SW. It does seem like it takes a more realistic track across the Carribean and doesn't immediately track NNW across Cuba. Then again, it could be having trouble detecting the weakness across the Eastern Gulf of Mexico as a shortwave trough tracks west.

Yeah it's certainly going to be an outlier. Gonna be a monster run and looks to be heading for the mid Texas coast. It's notorious for these kinda swings early in so hard to take it seriously for now.

It may be trying to develop the MLC to the south versus the LLC to the north that the other models are hinting will continue to develop. Interesting scenario.

Correct. It initialized a little to far s. Definite relief when recon gets in there later today.

[Andrew]

ECMWF has shifted north and east and is similar so far to the GFS.

[davidiowx]

Windshield wipers continue. Models speeding up landfall potential and still bouncing around. Recon will be a big help

[Stratton20]

Most likely a lousiana landfal at this point

[Scott747]

Euro is 959 into Vermilion Bay. Unbelievable consensus from the globals for an invest....

HWRF ends up at 931 at the border.

[Stormlover2020]

Real simple if this doesn’t go over cuba it will be more towards upper texas coast..all depends where this center forms.

[Stratton20]

Stormlover2020 also gotta watch for the wobbles, any sort of deviation to the left or right could decide if the upper texas coast gets any significant impacts or not

[Andrew]

Euro is 959 into Vermilion Bay. Unbelievable consensus from the globals for an invest....

HWRF ends up at 931 at the border.

It is incredible how quickly the consensus has grown. We are still approximately 100 hours out and we still don't have a formed center, but it does allow those along the Texas Coast to breath a little easier tonight. Once recon and more data is ingested tomorrow we can gain even more confidence on where landfall will eventually occur.

[Stormlover2020]

Models haven’t done well this far out all year, Friday night will be the telling point

[Andrew]

Models haven’t done well this far out all year, Friday night will be the telling point

Possibly, but when you have this much agreement in track, landfall, and intensity it's hard to ignore. Today (Thursday) should provide additional insights once recon data is collected.

[Waded]

Ignoring the storm that won't likely effect Texas for a moment, there is a thunder storm near Nassau Bay at the moment and the lightning is simply brilliant.

[Goomba]

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
505 AM EDT Thu Aug 26 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Special tropical weather outlook issued to update the discussion of
the system south of Jamaica.

Updated: Shower and thunderstorm activity continues to become better
organized in association with a trough of low pressure located less
than 200 miles south of Jamaica. Environmental conditions remain
conducive for development, and a tropical depression or storm is
expected to form later today or tomorrow. This system is forecast to
move northwestward over the northwestern Caribbean Sea near the
Cayman Islands tonight, near Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula of
Mexico on Friday, and into the Gulf of Mexico this weekend. Given
the recent developmental trends, Tropical Storm Warnings for the
Cayman Islands and Tropical Storm Watches for western Cuba could be
required later today.

Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall and flooding will
be possible over portions of Jamaica and the Cayman Islands today
and tonight, and will likely spread across Cuba and the Yucatan
Peninsula on Friday. In addition, this system could bring dangerous
impacts from storm surge, wind, and heavy rainfall to portions of
the coasts of Louisiana, Texas, and the Mexican state of Tamaulipas
late this weekend and early next week. However, uncertainty remains
large since the system has yet to form. Interests in these areas
should closely monitor the progress of this system and ensure they
have their hurricane plan in place. An Air Force Reserve
reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system later
today, if necessary. Additional information on this system,
including gale warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued
by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.