August 2021: Major Hurricane Ida/SE Louisiana Landfall

[Scott747]

NHC doesn't bite on the latest TWO.

They did expand the area to the NE which as of now does lie within the range....

Though, any change with NHC outlooks, forecasts are always going to be gradual in any situation.

True but this is kinda of a strange situation, especially if a New Orleans threat were to verify, Getting EMO up and running takes a bit of time and the speed of that 18z track is challenging.

[don]

My thinking at this time is that its going to Louisiana,not set in stone yet of course.

[cperk]

wxman57 posted this on s2k a few minutes ago...

"Good news for Houston, I think this is going to develop farther north and east. Bad news for SE Louisiana. We may need to shift our track east of Vermilion Bay tonight. Once models initialize on the right location, they'll be in better agreement. I just don't see much of a ridge to keep it from going straight north into the central Gulf. 18Z GFS may be on to something. Oh, and I've seen hurricanes reach Cat 5 moving at 25 kts. Speed is not a factor if the relative shear is low. Called my sister in Baton Rouge (Prairieville) telling her to get ready."

People he may end up being right,I’ve always been told to wait for formation first and don’t sound the all clear 5 days out.If he end up being wrong that’s gonna be a bad look for him.

[weatherguy425]

NHC doesn't bite on the latest TWO.

They did expand the area to the NE which as of now does lie within the range....

Though, any change with NHC outlooks, forecasts are always going to be gradual in any situation.

True but this is kinda of a strange situation, especially if a New Orleans threat were to verify, Getting EMO up and running takes a bit of time and the speed of that 18z track is challenging.

The thing is, some preparation has likely already begun (very initial) across much of the Gulf coast. Emergency Management, Homeland Security folks don’t necessarily wait for model consensus. There are probably folks across a large portion of the Gulf coast that have begun initial planning.

[captainbarbossa19]

The 18z HWRF so far is the complete opposite of the GFS...

And they are on the same team!

May have spoke too soon. Ha.

HWRF shifts to a landfall in southeast Louisiana.

Yea, takes a route very similar to the GFS. It will be interesting to see if additional models continue this trend on the 00z suite.

I am confused. The HWRF I am looking at is showing landfall southwest of Lafayette.

[Andrew]

The 18z HWRF so far is the complete opposite of the GFS...

And they are on the same team!

May have spoke too soon. Ha.

HWRF shifts to a landfall in southeast Louisiana.

Yea, takes a route very similar to the GFS. It will be interesting to see if additional models continue this trend on the 00z suite.

Looking at the last couple of hours in the run for the HWRF, 99L does take more of an NW turn towards the end which correlates well with some of the ensembles having ridging rebuild across the SE U.S.

[Stormlover2020]

Friday morning we should know still plenty of time for models just jump back and forth

[weatherguy425]

HWRF shifts to a landfall in southeast Louisiana.

Yea, takes a route very similar to the GFS. It will be interesting to see if additional models continue this trend on the 00z suite.

Looking at the last couple of hours in the run for the HWRF, 99L does take more of an NW turn towards the end which correlates well with some of the ensembles having ridging rebuild across the SE U.S.

That second ridge is going to be important too. Interesting. Still, though, interested to see if shift continues at 00z.

[Texaspirate11]

Though, any change with NHC outlooks, forecasts are always going to be gradual in any situation.

True but this is kinda of a strange situation, especially if a New Orleans threat were to verify, Getting EMO up and running takes a bit of time and the speed of that 18z track is challenging.

The thing is, some preparation has likely already begun (very initial) across much of the Gulf coast. Emergency Management, Homeland Security folks don’t necessarily wait for model consensus. There are probably folks across a large portion of the Gulf coast that have begun initial planning.

Yes they are on alert

[jasons2k]

Yea, takes a route very similar to the GFS. It will be interesting to see if additional models continue this trend on the 00z suite.

Looking at the last couple of hours in the run for the HWRF, 99L does take more of an NW turn towards the end which correlates well with some of the ensembles having ridging rebuild across the SE U.S.

That second ridge is going to be important too. Interesting. Still, though, interested to see if shift continues at 00z.

Faster = further east
Slower = bend to the west

[Andrew]

18Z ECMWF a little further east through the 90hr run but nothing significantly different.

[djmike]

Im just blown away that we have gone from central Mexico to now Eastern La. If you’d have asked me yesterday, no way this would be a Louisiana storm. It would have been Matagorda area my guess. Between Brownsville and Galveston. Well…this just goes to show once again how quick things can change. Ofcourse things can always shift back, but I do feel better in Beaumont. I dont wish a storm on anyone and will be available to offer assistance whomever does get hit. Unfortunately someone along the gulf coast will.

[snowman65]

Im just blown away that we have gone from central Mexico to now Eastern La. If you’d have asked me yesterday, no way this would be a Louisiana storm. It would have been Matagorda area my guess. Between Brownsville and Galveston. Well…this just goes to show once again how quick things can change. Ofcourse things can always shift back, but I do feel better in Beaumont. I dont wish a storm on anyone and will be available to offer assistance whomever does get hit. Unfortunately someone along the gulf coast will.

Man, I hope it stays east of us...I dont want that again....but I do have family out that way too.

[Stormlover2020]

https://weather.us/cyclone-tracks/euro/ ... 8-240.html

[djmike]

Im just blown away that we have gone from central Mexico to now Eastern La. If you’d have asked me yesterday, no way this would be a Louisiana storm. It would have been Matagorda area my guess. Between Brownsville and Galveston. Well…this just goes to show once again how quick things can change. Ofcourse things can always shift back, but I do feel better in Beaumont. I dont wish a storm on anyone and will be available to offer assistance whomever does get hit. Unfortunately someone along the gulf coast will.

Man, I hope it stays east of us...I dont want that again....but I do have family out that way too.

Same here. Family all over La. Baton Rouge, Lafayette, Slidell, etc. I We dont want this in Beaumont but certainly dont want our families to have to deal with it. Even if it goes to La, I will still be affected having to drive in and help and assist my family prepare and evacuate. Last year was insane for us in Beaumont Orange and LC. La doesn’t need another year of this.

[djmike]

Euro Ensembles still pretty much point to Setx and Swla.

[AtascocitaWX]

I beleive we may have dodged a Bullet here. Still have guard up but East trends dont normally trend back west too often.

[Stratton20]

We are not in the clear at all, we havent dodged a bullet yet! The mideos still dont have a LLC to work with

[tireman4]

AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
718 PM CDT Wed Aug 25 2021

.AVIATION [00Z TAF Issuance]...

Looks like we`ll have a few more hours of active weather for most
of our TAF sites as convection (from one outflow boundary) begins
to interact with other lingering boundaries in/around the region.
Have kept with VCTS wording for now...adding TEMPO groups as this
activity nears. Wind gusts and limited visibilites (via the heavy
rain) should be the main issues at the terminals. Otherwise, will
be expecting things to quiet down later this evening (03-04Z) and
through the overnight hours. Light east winds will develop by mid
to late morning tomorrow. Increased low-level moisture along with
daytime heating and a possible shortwave from the east will like-
ly result in scattered shower/thunderstorm coverage (higher along
the southern half of the CWA) staring early in the morning...then
peaking during the afternoon/early evening. 41

&&

[captainbarbossa19]

I beleive we may have dodged a Bullet here. Still have guard up but East trends dont normally trend back west too often.

I wouldn't say that until at least Friday. Most models have been wrong this season that were sending storms more east. The Euro was wrong concerning Elsa with it being an eastern outlier. Many models were also wrong about Grace being more east.