August 2021: Major Hurricane Ida/SE Louisiana Landfall

[jasons2k]

Just not much out there so far today. Things starting to get crispy around here.

[Stratton20]

This could be pretty concerning if this comes to fruition next week and beyond

[Cpv17]

This could be pretty concerning if this comes to fruition next week and beyond

Give it a few more days and this thread will explode.

[Stratton20]

CPV17 your right it probably will, looks like we might have a few things to track in the coming days

[DoctorMu]

Im more interested in the potential tropical mischief we could be seeing in the western Caribbean about 9-10 days from now , the GFS continues to hint at a tropical wave moving into that region and potentially developing

That’s the one that’s just now coming off the coast of Africa. 94L looks to be a Florida storm right now.

Euro sees a weak depression/low off the Florida coast Aug 16-17.

Nothing else cooking - except us under high heat indexes!

ummmm...

Florida west coast with another visitor.

[Scott747]

0z GFS run is a doozy. No doubt in this range there will continue to be significant shifts but it sure has been consistent outside of a few runs for a couple of days now.

The wave takes a much different path than earlier runs but it doesn't really matter where it comes from with what the upper sir environment looks like.

[Stratton20]

Scott747 yeah for something completely in the long range the GFS has been remarkably consistent on this idea for a few runs now , this disturbance would likely reach the gulf about 10 days from now, the environment could be really conducive soon, this is definitely something worth watching, the fact that the GFS has been consistently advertising a strong to Major Hurricane these past few runs has me somewhat concerned, as this tells me that the background environment in the gulf is about to become primed and extremely conducive for development soon

[Scott747]

No surprises with a huge swing between the 6z and 0z GFS. It's went from a cat 3/4 into Corpus to a weak tropical storm around Tampico. It's still tracking the wave currently to the sw of the CV islands without any real intensification until the approach into the Caribbean and also having issues resolving another wave behind it.

We'll see if it continues to build some more consistency over the next few days or drops it. So far even with the usual swings in the long range I've been impressed with the upgrade of the GFS and its ensembles earlier this year.

[Cpv17]

No surprises with a huge swing between the 6z and 0z GFS. It's went from a cat 3/4 into Corpus to a weak tropical storm around Tampico. It's still tracking the wave currently to the sw of the CV islands without any real intensification until the approach into the Caribbean and also having issues resolving another wave behind it.

We'll see if it continues to build some more consistency over the next few days or drops it. So far even with the usual swings in the long range I've been impressed with the upgrade of the GFS and its ensembles earlier this year.

Just curious but I’ve noticed it seems like you don’t put much stock into ensembles and mainly rely on op runs. Why is that? I was always told ensembles are the way to go especially in the longer range.

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 101024
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
524 AM CDT Tue Aug 10 2021

.SHORT TERM [Today through Wednesday Night]...
A very typical summer pattern in place with high pressure over the
Lower Mississippi keeping onshore flow in places over SETX.
Temperatures will continue to be on the hot side with afternoon
highs today reaching the 90-92 degree range on the coast and 93-97
inland. Heat indices will be climbing rapidly this morning into
the 97-104 range between 10am and noon then level off - peaking in
the afternoon in the 100-105 degree range. Early morning showers
should be confined to the areas south of I-10 and primarily
focused in areas from Bay City eastward. With the temperatures
rising this morning cap weakens and by 10 am isolated
thunderstorms should begin to pop up and continue into the
afternoon gradually spreading inland and could produce some gusty
of 25 to 35 knots. Overall rain chances should be low today.

Overnight again above normal temperatures and may get close to
record high minimum temperatures at IAH and HOU near 81-82
degrees.

Plume of deeper moisture over the Gulf should spread into the
region on Wednesday and expect a more active morning and afternoon
with showers and thunderstorms over the Gulf pushing inland
through the morning. Will nudge up rain chances into the 30-40
percent range across the south and 20-30 further inland. Storms
may also be slower moving with some brief heavy downpours and
lighter gusty wind conditions. Although the storms will bring
slightly cooler air and more cloud cover the greater moisture is
going to keep it on the hot side. May be closer to the 105-110
degree heat index range. And correspondingly could be back into
Heat Advisory conditions.
45


.LONG TERM [Thursday Night Through Tuesday]...

Steady as she goes...Hold the line...Deja vu...all of these phrases
match the theme of the forecast for the rest of the week: not much
change! Through the end of the work week, temperatures top out in
the mid-to-upper 90s with heat index values in the 105-108 range, so
we`ll routinely be on the edge of a Heat Advisory. Whether or not a
Heat Advisory is issued, please continue to practice heat safety.
Take plenty of breaks, drink plenty of water, and most importantly
look before you lock your vehicle. With an upper-level ridge
remaining in place along with surface high pressure persisting in
the eastern Gulf, moisture will remain sufficient enough to generate
showers/thunderstorms. This will be of the typical summertime
pattern variety with rain showers along the coast in the morning
hours followed by the seabreeze moving inland and generating
isolated to scattered thunderstorms in the late morning/afternoon
hours.

We`ll take a little bit of detour from this pattern over the weekend
with a surface "cold" front attempting to push through Texas. Global
models don`t exactly agree on how far south the front will go before
washing out, but either way don`t expect any noticeable drop in
temperatures. Convergence along the frontal boundary could give
portions of the area an increased chance of rain, mainly Saturday
afternoon into Sunday. Early next week, the GFS and ECMWF are in
agreement on an upper-level low developing in the Upper Midwest.
This will guide in a few rounds of shortwaves that can take
advantage of PW values right around 2" and generate
showers/thunderstorms.

Batiste

&&

.AVIATION [12Z TAF Issuance]...
Primarily VFR with VCSH this morning for GLS/LBX then late
morning/afternoon VCSH/VCTS SGR/HOU/IAH. Near CLL-RWV-11R a swath
of low clouds 500-1600 this morning but these should mix out
quickly 13-15z. VCTS looking more likely on Wednesday and starting
out earlier near GLS.
45

&&

.MARINE...

Onshore flow will continue to prevail with nighttime increases in
wind speed through mid-week. A weakening pressure gradient in the
latter half of the week will allow winds and seas to gradually
decrease from 3-4 feet to 2 feet by the weekend. A daily chance of
showers and thunderstorms remains possible through the end of the
week. Mariners should stay up to date on Potential Tropical Cyclone
Six as it is expected to work its way into the eastern Gulf over the
weekend and early next week. No local impacts are expected from this
tropical system.

Batiste
&&


.TROPICAL...
Keeping an eye on Potential Tropical Cyclone Six near the Leeward
Islands moving west-northwest. Most of the guidance and NHC are
indicating the path of Six to move into the Florida Straits area
the more northwest from there.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record high minimum temperature set yesterday at Hobby Airport 82
degrees surpassing the previous 81 degree reading in 1980. At IAH
82 as well equaling the previous record set in 2019.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL) 97 76 96 76 96 / 0 0 20 10 20
Houston (IAH) 94 78 96 80 95 / 10 0 40 20 30
Galveston (GLS) 90 84 90 83 90 / 20 0 30 10 30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for the following
zones: Bolivar Peninsula...Brazoria Islands...Galveston
Island...Matagorda Islands.

GM...None.

&&

$$


SHORT TERM...45
LONG TERM...Batiste

[DoctorMu]

PTC#6 appears to be a threat to the eastern Gulf only. Heed the ensembles and NHC, not individual runs, especially GFS. Last hurricane season was a lesson. Euro can always raise an eyebrow, but the Euro is keeping the weak TC near Florida.

[TexasBreeze]

It is not 6 that is the potential west Gulf threat. It is a wave behind it in the eastern Atlantic.

[Stratton20]

12z ICON only goes out 7 days but it is starting to pick up on the 2nd system that the GFS has been showing the past few days

[Kingwood36]

It's the icon tho...lol but ya I see that

[Cpv17]

12z ICON only goes out 7 days but it is starting to pick up on the 2nd system that the GFS has been showing the past few days

The NHC now has a lemon out for it. Glad to see they’re finally mentioning it. 20% chance over the next 5 days.

[Stratton20]

CPV17 Id expect that this wave probably wont develop until it gets into the Caribbean, regardless this is one to watch closely

[DoctorMu]

It is not 6 that is the potential west Gulf threat. It is a wave behind it in the eastern Atlantic.

Cape Verde? Probably just a hair early. Could be caught on the conveyor belt towards the northern South American coast.


ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Tue Aug 10 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Potential
Tropical Cyclone Six, located over the northeastern Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

1. A concentrated area of showers and thunderstorms located a few
hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands is associated
with a tropical wave. Some gradual development of this system is
possible over the next several days while it moves westward across
the tropical Atlantic at 15 to 20 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Public Advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Six are issued
under WMO header WTNT31 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT1.
Forecast/Advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Six are issued
under WMO header WTNT21 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT1.

Forecaster Latto

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES16 ... 00x540.gif

[DoctorMu]

The 12z Euro has the CV system crashing and burning off Guyana and Venezuela. GFS takes a remnant of South American coast and spins it up to South Carolina. The GFS has a lot of tropical imagination.

[Stratton20]

Also got a tropical wave not highlighted by the NHC thats to the west of Fred nearing the Yucatan, will watch just in case it sneaks into the gulf

[Stratton20]

DoctorMu no the 12z Euro takes the CV system and propagates whatever it becomes westward into the GOM as an open wave *right now*