000
FXUS64 KHGX 302053
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
353 PM CDT Mon Aug 30 2021
.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Tuesday Night]...
A plume of slightly deeper moisture coupled with subtle low level
convergence has fostered the development of showers today over
mainly the western half of the CWA. The showers will gradually end
this evening with the loss of heating but some convergence near the
coast could allow for some showers to redevelop prior to sunrise.
It`ll remain warm tonight with lows generally in the mid 70`s to
lower 80`s. A series of weak disturbances rotating around Ida will
continue to move into the area from the NW. The disturbances coupled
with deep moisture will set the stage for additional showers and
thunderstorms on Tuesday. The CAMs are rather aggressive with rain
chances on Tuesday and they might be on to something as surface wind
fields support strong convergence in the afternoon as the deep N-NW
flow around Ida collides with a late afternoon sea breeze. Fcst
soundings show a developing saturated layer in the afternoon with
PWATs reaching 2.20 inches. Will go with high end chance PoPs for
now and see how things evolve. Precip will end Tuesday evening with
MinT values remaining close to tonight values with lows ranging
from the mid 70s inland to the lower 80s around the bays/coast. 43
.LONG TERM [Wednesday Through Sunday]...
Not much change to the extended part of the forecast with upper
ridging beginning to build into the Southern Plains on Wednesday.
Despite this, the development of a weak upper trough/cutoff low
over the far eastern Gulf will promote fairly robust mid/upper-
level moisture transport through the remainder of the week and
keep chances of rainfall fairly elevated as a result. While storm
development will generally be diurnal in nature, PW values in the
range of 1.75 to 2.0 in through early Friday will allow for
scattered coverage during the afternoon/early evening hours with
the greatest activity along and south of the I-10 corridor. As a
result, have maintained PoP values in the 30-40% range in this
forecast package. With the upper low beginning to push
southwestward by late Friday/early Saturday and the ridge building
further, drier air will begin to filter into the region and PW
values drop below 1.5 in. A drier weekend looks to be in store,
though a stray shower/storm or two along the coast cannot be ruled
out during the morning/afternoon hours.
High temperatures will remain slightly above seasonal averages
with most locations seeing values in the upper 90s through the
remainder of the week and into the weekend. This will produce heat
index values of approximately 103-106 through Friday, though
values should drop heading into the weekend with the arrival of
slightly lower dew points as drier air moves in.
Both the extended EC and GFS are now picking up on an early-
season cold front approaching the area sometime during the middle
of next week. Still too far out to express any real confidence in
this scenario unfolding...but something to watch.
Cady
&&
.AVIATION [18Z TAF Issuance]...
A corridor of deeper moisture over the western half of the CWA
coupled with subtle low level convergence and daytime heating will
foster the development of shra/tsra this afternoon. Coverage will
be spotty and will start off with vicinity and see how things
evolve. Will keep showers in the forecast tonight with maybe a gap
in coverage this evening. Soundings look a bit more aggressive
with precip coverage on Tuesday with stronger low level
convergence and a deeper saturated layer. Sky conditions are
expected to remain VFR over most TAF sites. 43
&&
.MARINE...
West winds will continue to gradually shift to the southwest
through tomorrow and further to the south by Wednesday, remaining
around 10 to 15 knots during this time. Conditions may approach
caution criteria at times, though caution flags are unlikely to be
required in the near term with seas remaining at around 2 to 3
feet. With relatively deep moisture remaining in place following
the departure of Ida to our west, conditions will be favorable for
the development of scattered showers and storms each day before
the approach of an upper ridge this weekend brings in drier air
and lower rainfall chances.
Cady
&&
.TROPICAL...
We are now heading into the peak of hurricane season as September
approaches. While there are currently no tropical systems that
pose a threat to SE TX, now is the time to make sure that you are
prepared to act in the event that a storm does threaten us at some
point. Check to make sure you have an updated hurricane kit and
that you and your family have a plan in place to respond to a
storm.
You can find a list of suggested supplies to include in your
hurricane kit at
www.www.ready.gov/kit.
Cady
&&
.CLIMATE...
The city of Houston has gone 365 days without reaching 100 degrees.
It will come close to this value later this afternoon and tomorrow.
You gotta love a west wind as well. With the flow coming from land,
Galveston tied a record high temperature of 97 degrees today. It`ll
be difficult to break the high temperature records tomorrow as
temperatures will be competing with the brutal Labor Day weekend
heatwave of 2000. 43
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 77 97 77 97 76 / 10 30 10 40 10
Houston (IAH) 79 98 78 96 77 / 20 50 30 50 10
Galveston (GLS) 82 92 82 93 81 / 40 40 30 40 20
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk until 7 PM CDT this evening for the
following zones: Bolivar Peninsula...Brazoria
Islands...Galveston Island...Matagorda Islands.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...43
LONG TERM...Cady
AVIATION...43
MARINE...Cady
TROPICAL...Cady
CLIMATE...43