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don wrote: ↑Mon Aug 23, 2021 12:08 pm The trend in the 12Z operational models so far today has been further south with a stronger ridge in place.But still too early to know for sure how things will play out as we don't have a tc yet.

The ridge continues to be an influence on all of the major models and Ensembles.

Im 85% confident this will be a mexico problem, but then again their is always a chance it doesnt, until we see where that Low Pressure forms, im not completely ruling out a Texas hit yet

Storm hasn’t even developed yet, still 7-8 days out wed and Thursday we will know

So much for zero chance of rain. Pouring its *** off at work on my freshly washed car.

I’m gonna just copy and paste the latest GFS for the rest of the week.

Now at medium.

2. A tropical wave located over the eastern Caribbean Sea is expected
to form a broad area of low pressure over the southwestern Caribbean
Sea by late week. Thereafter, environmental conditions are forecast
to become favorable for gradual development while the system moves
west-northwestward over the northwestern Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

12z GFS ensembles, one thing i noticed is that the stronger members are further north,while the weaker members keep the storm well to the south.

12z Euro has a significantly weaker ridge and brings this system into Texas

12Z EURO much further north agreeing with some of it's ensembles from last nights 0Z.Has a category 1 towards Matagorda.

Stratton20 wrote: ↑Mon Aug 23, 2021 1:58 pm 12z Euro has a significantly weaker ridge and brings this system into Texas

Yup, brings a Hurricane into Matagorda Bay.

12z run is a mess. Double digit rainfall totals all over the area...near hurricane force gusts southwest of Houston.

Hasn't the Euro been trash so far?

Cromagnum wrote: ↑Mon Aug 23, 2021 2:19 pm Hasn't the Euro been trash so far?

It has in regards to the strength of storms this season and last year,but not necessarily with the tracks of storms though.

Cromagnum wrote: ↑Mon Aug 23, 2021 2:19 pm Hasn't the Euro been trash so far?

I'll have to go back and check the verification stats for 2020 but it was still the leading operational model - though not necessarily during genesis.

It hasn't quite been the 'King' though this last few years since whatever small upgrade they did. It was almost always the leading model in any swing in pattern or steering. Some of the 12 model models were hinting at this even with the general same track into Mexico so we definitely need to keep an eye on the 18z and 0z runs to see if the Euro is on to something.

Scott747 18z Euro? I thought the Euro only has 2 model runs per day?

The Euro now has a 6Z and 18Z runs, but its only available on paid model sites.And doesn't got out as far as the 0z and 12z operational runs do.

Euro has 18z only goes out to 90 hours then ensembles to 144 hours

Euro ensembles still have 2 camps, one toward mexico and one toward texas. Some pretty strong members on this run.

mcheer23 wrote: ↑Mon Aug 23, 2021 2:39 pm Euro ensembles still have 2 camps, one toward mexico and one toward texas. Some pretty strong members on this run.

Piggy-backing onto this - while the ECMWF is the only operational run to have this solution, so far, several members in each ensemble package (EPS, GEFS, GEPS) have a similar north turn within a couple hundred miles of the Texas, Mexico coastlines.

Quite a bit to watch over the next 5-7 days.

12Z Euro ensembles