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Re: August 2021
Posted: Thu Aug 05, 2021 6:41 pm
by Stratton20
The GFS continues to show nothing tropical threatening the gulf the next 16 days, I really find that hard to believe especially with the passage of the Active phase of the MJO next week, maybe the model needs another upgrade? Seeks like the GFS is struggling to pick up on this large scale weather feature
Re: August 2021
Posted: Thu Aug 05, 2021 6:42 pm
by Rip76
Do we have haze from fires or dust?
Re: August 2021
Posted: Thu Aug 05, 2021 8:35 pm
by Stratton20
Rip76 the haze you see is most likely from a fire
Re: August 2021
Posted: Fri Aug 06, 2021 9:54 am
by BlueJay
jasons2k wrote: ↑Thu Aug 05, 2021 12:17 pm
BlueJay wrote: ↑Thu Aug 05, 2021 9:32 am
NOAA has updated its forecast calling for more storms this hurricane season.
Take from Space City Weather:
On Thursday NOAA released an updated version of its Atlantic season hurricane forecast and some media coverage framed it in a fairly intimidating way—suggesting the forecast had gotten "worse" or more dangerous in some way. The reality is that the forecast increased from an estimate of 13-20 named storms for this season to 15 to 21 named storms, and 6-10 hurricanes to 7 to 10 hurricanes.
This "increase" simply reflects the fact that the early season was a little more active than anticipated, and that overall nothing has changed with regard to tropical activity for the remainder of the 2021 Atlantic hurricane season. Frankly, we already knew this was going to be an active season. And as Matt wrote on Tuesday, the tropics are now heating up on schedule, with the next six to eight weeks are the time of greatest concern for Texas. Fortunately, there are no immediate threats to the Gulf of Mexico and we'll continue to take it day by day.
https://spacecityweather.com/enjoy-the- ... s-weekend/
Thanks Jasons! I guess that is somewhat comforting.
But if it just take one, it encourages me to continue to be weather aware.
I appreciate this forum..
Re: August 2021
Posted: Fri Aug 06, 2021 1:24 pm
by Kingwood36
When is this damn rain suppose to stop?
Re: August 2021
Posted: Fri Aug 06, 2021 1:36 pm
by Stratton20
12z ICON and CMC runs are hinting at possibly a gulf threat around 7 days from now, something to watch very carefully, 12 z Euro also hinting at a tropical wave entering the gulf around that time period as well, interesting days ahead
Re: August 2021
Posted: Fri Aug 06, 2021 2:28 pm
by Scott747
For a few runs now the GFS and Euro in the long range are showing the possibility of a classic CC with 92l or the wave behind it. Longer range gets it all the way into the BoC. Nothing yet on the experimental hurricane model that I follow...
And in even longer range modeling (as if we need more, ha) the 45 day Euro for a few weeks now has a couple of major threats to the western gulf. This latest week has one each for the lower and upper Texas coast.
Re: August 2021
Posted: Fri Aug 06, 2021 2:36 pm
by Stratton20
Scott747 yep latest Euro has a potential system in the Caribbean by next week, interesting days ahead
Re: August 2021
Posted: Fri Aug 06, 2021 3:34 pm
by Cpv17
The 3-4 week outlook issued by the CPC today is alarming.
Re: August 2021
Posted: Fri Aug 06, 2021 3:36 pm
by Stratton20
Cpv17 do you have a link? Or why is it alarming?
Re: August 2021
Posted: Fri Aug 06, 2021 4:15 pm
by DoctorMu
Scattered showers from Austin getting clobbered again at the county line. The Aggiedome is back!
Re: August 2021
Posted: Fri Aug 06, 2021 4:16 pm
by Stratton20
Cpv17 ah nvm I saw it on the CPC website, that is very alarming , above average precipitation in weeks 3/4 could lead to more gulf tropical mischief
Re: August 2021
Posted: Fri Aug 06, 2021 4:23 pm
by DoctorMu
I’ll take some alarming Precipitation!
Re: August 2021
Posted: Fri Aug 06, 2021 4:41 pm
by Stratton20
DoctorMu be careful what you wish for haha
Re: August 2021
Posted: Fri Aug 06, 2021 6:36 pm
by Stratton20
Seems like the GFS is broken lol, isnt show much tropical activity the next 16 days, either this model needs a new upgrade or be prepared for a lot of surprise storms this season
Re: August 2021
Posted: Fri Aug 06, 2021 6:51 pm
by DoctorMu
A summer like none other. The AggieDome surrendered... and there be whales!
OK...A greater miracle - actual August rain without a tropical system or tropical moisture. A pop up shower delivered and we're finishing about 20 minutes of rain.
Sprinklers on stun. Kirk out.
Re: August 2021
Posted: Fri Aug 06, 2021 9:34 pm
by jasons2k
DoctorMu wrote: ↑Fri Aug 06, 2021 6:51 pm
A summer like none other. The AggieDome surrendered... and there be whales!
OK...A greater miracle - actual August rain without a tropical system or tropical moisture. A pop up shower delivered and we're finishing about 20 minutes of rain.
Sprinklers on stun. Kirk out.
I’m glad you got some rain. Missed me here so I’ll be running the sprinklers first thing tomorrow.
Re: August 2021
Posted: Fri Aug 06, 2021 9:40 pm
by DoctorMu
jasons2k wrote: ↑Fri Aug 06, 2021 9:34 pm
DoctorMu wrote: ↑Fri Aug 06, 2021 6:51 pm
A summer like none other. The AggieDome surrendered... and there be whales!
OK...A greater miracle - actual August rain without a tropical system or tropical moisture. A pop up shower delivered and we're finishing about 20 minutes of rain.
Sprinklers on stun. Kirk out.
I’m glad you got some rain. Missed me here so I’ll be running the sprinklers first thing tomorrow.
Yeah - anything to take us closer to football season...
Is the pool cured and ready for filling yet?
Re: August 2021
Posted: Fri Aug 06, 2021 9:43 pm
by Cpv17
Most of the rain has missed me this week. I’m thankful that we’ve gotten 2.5” of rain but other places all around me have doubled or tripled that. It was so dry here. The ground absorbed it so quickly and you couldn’t even tell it rained. No standing water anywhere. We barely got anything here the whole month of July.
Re: August 2021
Posted: Fri Aug 06, 2021 9:47 pm
by jasons2k
DoctorMu wrote: ↑Fri Aug 06, 2021 9:40 pm
jasons2k wrote: ↑Fri Aug 06, 2021 9:34 pm
DoctorMu wrote: ↑Fri Aug 06, 2021 6:51 pm
A summer like none other. The AggieDome surrendered... and there be whales!
OK...A greater miracle - actual August rain without a tropical system or tropical moisture. A pop up shower delivered and we're finishing about 20 minutes of rain.
Sprinklers on stun. Kirk out.
I’m glad you got some rain. Missed me here so I’ll be running the sprinklers first thing tomorrow.
Yeah - anything to take us closer to football season...
Is the pool cured and ready for filling yet?
Yes, Roger that Captain.
The gunite is cured and gunite cleanup complete. I have to say our pool company did a good job with cleanup. I’ve seen some neighbors’ jobs where they didn’t do any cleanup until the end.
Tile and plumbing/equipment go in next week. Then electrical and plaster. The decking will be last. Still a few weeks away from filling but we’re making progress.