September 2021: Hurricane Nicholas

Mon Sep 13, 2021 12:36 am

Best guess is part of Connor to Freeport it seems that's where most of the back in forth is going

Mon Sep 13, 2021 1:02 am

Heavy cell coming through Spring now.

Mon Sep 13, 2021 1:02 am

Starting to get that shape to it. Would not be surprised to wake up to a cane headed our way.

Mon Sep 13, 2021 1:07 am

Cromagnum wrote: ↑Mon Sep 13, 2021 1:02 am Starting to get that shape to it. Would not be surprised to wake up to a cane headed our way.

It’s looking really good right now. DMAX is doing him well.

Mon Sep 13, 2021 1:13 am

At 60mph already....

Tropical Storm Nicholas Intermediate Advisory Number 4A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142021
100 AM CDT Mon Sep 13 2021

...AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE FINDS THAT NICHOLAS IS CONTINUING
TO STRENGTHEN...

SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.1N 96.5W
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM SE OF MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES

Mon Sep 13, 2021 1:20 am

Oh geez. 60 mph already? We may looking at a hurricane come sunrise.

Mon Sep 13, 2021 1:27 am

00Z ECMWF has shifted towards the other models with landfall near Matagorda Bay and a track to the northeast. No stall this time. It shows similar rainfall totals like the GFS with most seeing 4-8 inches and pockets of 10-15. Max wind gusts could reach close to 60mph in the city though.

Mon Sep 13, 2021 1:28 am

djmike wrote: ↑Mon Sep 13, 2021 1:20 am Oh geez. 60 mph already? We may looking at a hurricane come sunrise.

Yep. Nick is getting its act together. The long oval center consolidated north and is riding the Pacific firehose.

Mon Sep 13, 2021 1:32 am

Mon Sep 13, 2021 1:37 am

From zero to hero on the consolidated center.

Mon Sep 13, 2021 1:41 am

Nicholas still remains sheared to the east and while strengthening has occurred we need to monitor if additional convection can fire to the west.

Mon Sep 13, 2021 1:47 am

0z Euro in lock step with NHC. Nicholas is cranking, although east sided. Could be a CAT 1 in the morning before shear hampers development .

Mon Sep 13, 2021 4:05 am

Mon Sep 13, 2021 4:09 am

Mon Sep 13, 2021 5:22 am

For a minute I thought my eyes were playing tricks on me and there was another center reformation to the e. Looked that way on satellite but you can still see the current center on BRO radar.

But I go back to yesterday and some of the crazy pinball movements in the GFS and sure enough the 6z GFS has one more center reformation to the e/ene in 3-6 hrs. Don't think it will have a major impact on final landfall just something to look out for.

Mon Sep 13, 2021 6:05 am

Southwesterly shear is still impacting the storm a good bit. The center of Nicholas still remains southeast of Brownsville and with not much additional convection firing overhead, it may be difficult to sustain some of the convection further east. Not the healthiest storm, but still a lot more developed compared to yesterday.

Mon Sep 13, 2021 6:26 am

Storm still seems off to me...

Anyways recon is finally headed towards the storm and will alleviate whatever I think I'm seeing.

Fwiw both hurricane models had a fairly decent shift up the coast being this close to landfall. HWRF shows a reformation like the GFS.

Mon Sep 13, 2021 6:32 am

KGYF which is approximately 120NM NE of the center is reporting wind speeds of 53kts currently. While the ob is ~200ft above the water it's still impressive the distance that tropical storm-force winds will likely be felt during landfall

Mon Sep 13, 2021 6:36 am

Scott747 wrote: ↑Mon Sep 13, 2021 6:26 am Storm still seems off to me...

Anyways recon is finally headed towards the storm and will alleviate whatever I think I'm seeing.

Fwiw both hurricane models had a fairly decent shift up the coast being this close to landfall. HWRF shows a reformation like the GFS.

It's possible we see a jump east later today especially if convection fails to fire on the western side of the storm. Some models are picking up on that like you mentioned.

Mon Sep 13, 2021 6:38 am

When is he suppose to make landfall? Sometime this evening right?

September 2021: Hurricane Nicholas

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