September 2021: Hurricane Nicholas

[Kingwood36]

I'd like another winter..not as cold but wintery weather would be awesome!

[sambucol]

Agree, Stratton.

[sambucol]

I'd like another winter..not as cold but wintery weather would be awesome!

It can be as cold!! I just want winter.

[Cpv17]

I'd like another winter..not as cold but wintery weather would be awesome!

It can be as cold!! I just want winter.

I’d be fine with temps below zero if I’m being completely honest. I love my extreme weather events! Lol

I just don’t really wanna lose power again and have all the pipe issues but outside of that, heck I’d be thrilled to have 0 degree temps with 3 feet of snow from a blizzard! In my dreams, I know I know

[Stratton20]

Ill take a cold winter, but not a february event! I cant take another ice age

[Stratton20]

12z CMC is more aggressive on developing a system in the gulf around 6 days from now

[cperk]

I was looking forward to that winter weather we got I made a pot of chili and bought my favorite bourbon.I expected to have some power outages that comes with that kind of weather,but not rolling outages lasting 6 hours.Luckily I had the fuel from hurricane season to run my generator now in the future I’m not gonna get to excited when one is forecasted for our area.

[TexasBreeze]

That 20/20 percent Caribbean area is Invest 91 now. Still no real threat for our area as of now, but will be watched.

[Cpv17]

That 20/20 percent Caribbean area is Invest 91 now. Still no real threat for our area as of now, but will be watched.

The CPC tropical hazard forecast issued today still looks rather interesting and also the CPC has highlighted southeast TX for a slight chance of excessive rainfall September 8th and 9th. Also, that’s about the same time some ensembles are bringing 91L into our area. Just something to watch. Nothing else going on really.

[Stratton20]

CPV17 thats interesting that the CPC did that, wonder what they are seeing , models arent too aggressive with 91L atm

[Cpv17]

CPV17 thats interesting that the CPC did that, wonder what they are seeing , models arent too aggressive with 91L atm

Some ensembles are saying this could develop into something weak right off the Texas coastline but there’s not a strong signal for it.

[Stratton20]

CPV17 ah gotcha, yeah definitely not worried about it right now, but better to casually watch it just in case, even if it developed into a weak system, a weak system would definitely be an issue for us, imelda comes to mind

[tireman4]

Keep thinking..Front ( wind direction..lol)..

[jasons2k]

Y’all be careful in the heat!! My oldest son started to suffer from heat exhaustion symptoms at band practice this afternoon. Good thing we caught it early and got him cooled off. The heat can be dangerous if you are not careful!

[Stratton20]

Jasons2k i unfortunately also came down with heat exhaustion this evening, was out on campus alot today in the heat, i feel pretty tired and had a mild fever, but luckily im starting to feel better, this hear aint no joke yall

[Andrew]

A general warning to everyone to remain on topic and to minimize exaggeration/"wishcasting" as much as possible. A lot of different people visit these forums for information about the weather with a varying degree of knowledge. Our goal is to always keep this an open environment and for everyone to feel included. Please keep that in mind when making a post. Finally, any harassment of members will result in an automatic ban. We all have different opinions, but respect is a must here. The moderators will continue to closely monitor the forums, especially with the increased traffic from the heated tropics. Thank you!

[tireman4]

0
FXUS64 KHGX 010858
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
358 AM CDT Wed Sep 1 2021

.SHORT TERM [through Wednesday Night]...

It`s September 1st...today marks the first day of meteorological
fall, the beginning of the most active month of the Atlantic
Hurricane season but also that we are halfway through the end of the
hurricane season.

Although climatological fall is here, it will not feel like it.
Another hot day is expected across southeast TX today with highs
climbing into the mid to upper 90s. Dry air will continue to filter
in at mid-upper levels, increasing subsidence. However, persistent
southerly winds at the surface will bring a surge of Gulf moisture
inland throughout the day. This will result in isolated to scattered
convection with peak daytime heating and seabreeze interaction.
Overall, isolated showers are expected along the coast early this
morning, then moving/developing inland later this afternoon.
Frequent lightning, brief heavy rainfall and isolated gusty winds
can be expected with some strong storms. Same weather pattern is
expected on Thursday with isolated morning showers along the coast
and thunderstorms inland in the afternoon. Hot conditions continue
as 850hPa temperatures range into the 19 to 22C range.

Hot temperatures and dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s will lead to
heat index values from 103 to 107 degrees today and Thursday. While
values should remain just shy of heat advisory criteria, some
locations may briefly reach or exceed 108 degrees. The main message
to distribute today...don`t forget to practice heat safety,
particularly if you must spend time outdoors or in the sun during
peak daytime heating. 05

&&

.LONG TERM [Friday Through Wednesday]...

Expecting one more day on Friday with shower and thunderstorm chances
in the forecast as much of the area resides on the southern edge of
a gradually strengthening mid level ridge (keeping parts of our far
northern counties dry with the better rain chances central and south).
Over the weekend, the ridge looks to be strong enough to keep almost
the entire area dry as subsidence wins out. At the start of next week,
the ridge becomes centered in the western states which should allow
for a return to mainly diurnally driven shower and thunderstorm
development. The location/strength of the ridge out west and a
developing trough out east might allow for a cold front to work its
way toward our area around midweek. This boundary in combination
with a potential increase in western Gulf tropical moisture should
result in an increase in shower and thunderstorms chances.

We`ll also be keeping our eyes on the tropics (especially in/around
the Yucatan and southern Gulf areas) as we approach the peak of the
hurricane season. 42

&&

.MARINE...

Light onshore winds (occasionally moderate in the late night through
early morning hours) and low seas can be expected for the remainder
of the week and through the upcoming weekend. Showers and thunderstorms
will continue to be possible through the end of the week. A drier weekend
is anticipated. Shower and thunderstorm chances come back into the
forecast for the start of next week. 42

&&

.CLIMATE...

Houston Hobby looks like it just recorded its second warmest August
on record with an average temperature of 87.0 degrees (1.9 degrees
above normal). Hobby`s warmest August on record was in 2011 when
the average temperature was 89.1 degrees. 42

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1152 PM CDT Tue Aug 31 2021/

AVIATION [06Z TAF Issuance]...
Short term patchy fog near CLL at 05z on split channel likely
sped up by some of the the rain in the area this afternoon may
also be an issue overnight for CXO as well.

Rain chances look to be increasing and confidence as well
with showers near the coast around 12z moving inland and
weakening then in a weakly capped environment TSRA should breakout
by around 17z and fill in across the Metro TAF sites. Have upped
it from VCTS to TEMPO/PROB30 as it expands northward. By 23-01z
storms should start to wane across the south and taper off last
across the northern sites.
45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 97 76 96 75 96 / 20 10 20 0 20
Houston (IAH) 97 78 95 77 95 / 40 20 40 10 40
Galveston (GLS) 92 82 92 82 91 / 40 30 30 10 30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

[Stratton20]

00z Euro hints at some weak tropical development with 91L, has a weak impulse just off the texas coast by day 8

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Meteorological Fall!

Go to Hell Summer, go straight to your worthless corner of the calendar!

[jasons2k]

Meteorological Fall!

Go to Hell Summer, go straight to your worthless corner of the calendar!

This summer wasn’t that bad compared to most.

I know several people whose homes flooded with no heat or power last winter. Every season has its pros and cons. Personally I’m hoping this summer season hangs on a bit longer so my pool will heat up. Can’t heat it for two weeks after we fill it.

I noticed the NWS noted the beginning of the meteorological fall in their AFD. I wish the local TV mets would also educate the public.