September 2021: Hurricane Nicholas

[sambucol]

GFS has hurricane on Tuesday.

HWRF has a hurricane and making landfall on Texas.

979? That’s a high end category 2

That's not the right model run, thats last nights 0Z run.The current 12Z has a Category 1 at landfall.

Good to know. Thank you

[don]

Nicholas seems to be organizing a little faster than I expected.
Edit: Flash Flood Watch issued from HGX

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1033 AM CDT Sun Sep 12 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING...

The National Weather Service in League City has issued a

* Flash Flood Watch for portions of south central Texas and
southeast Texas, including the following areas, in south central
Texas, Coastal Jackson and Inland Jackson. In southeast Texas,
Bolivar Peninsula, Brazoria Islands, Chambers, Coastal Brazoria,
Coastal Galveston, Coastal Harris, Coastal Matagorda, Fort Bend,
Galveston Island, Inland Brazoria, Inland Galveston, Inland
Harris, Inland Matagorda, Matagorda Islands, Northern Liberty,
Southern Liberty and Wharton.

* From 7 PM CDT this evening through Tuesday evening.

* Periods of heavy rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Nicholas
are expected to result in Flash Flooding across the area.
Widespread total rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches are expected
across the area within the watch with some locally higher totals
of 15 inches.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

[Scott747]

12z HWRF up through Matagorda Bay early Tuesday afternoon at 975. Begins to bend a little ne around Bay City and Needville. Looks much like the current NHC track.

[Texaspirate11]

So, would boarding the windows be a good idea in Baytown?

This is a rainmaker mostly

[Stormlover2020]

They won’t ignore the hwrf hurricane watches will be next

[Kingwood36]

From Travis herzog fb page..

TX coastal residents: I am told there is a strong possibility some of you will be placed under a Hurricane Watch later today. Please stay weather aware. More details in comments.

[djmike]

Do yall think Jefferson county will eventually be included on any TS watch/warning?

[Cpv17]

Not expecting much from this here in the Wharton/El Campo area. Hoping I can at least get an inch or two from it.

[Stormlover2020]

Not expecting much from this here in the Wharton/El Campo area. Hoping I can at least get an inch or two from it.

You serious lol

[Cpv17]

Not expecting much from this here in the Wharton/El Campo area. Hoping I can at least get an inch or two from it.

You serious lol

Yeah. With the current track, the center would pass about 30 miles east of me. I’d be on the dry side. Hoping it shifts a lil west.

[Stormlover2020]

Not expecting much from this here in the Wharton/El Campo area. Hoping I can at least get an inch or two from it.

You serious lol

Yeah. With the current track, the center would pass about 30 miles east of me. I’d be on the dry side. Hoping it shifts a lil west.

U Will tons of bands

[Cpv17]

You serious lol

Yeah. With the current track, the center would pass about 30 miles east of me. I’d be on the dry side. Hoping it shifts a lil west.

U Will tons of bands

I think the western side will be fighting some dry air so I’m expecting most of the convection to be on the eastern side.

[Stratton20]

Interesting to note that it looks like a LLC has been found farther NW than originally anticipated

[Samantha550]

Do yall think Jefferson county will eventually be included on any TS watch/warning?

Donald at Lake Charles NWS said tonight or tomorrow morning at the latest.

[Ptarmigan]

GFS has hurricane on Tuesday.
https://i.imgur.com/A3CL69G.png

HWRF has a hurricane and making landfall on Texas.
https://i.imgur.com/UjOup3F.png

979? That’s a high end category 2

979 millibars is usually Category 1. It depends on size and ambient pressure. I have see 979 millibars in tropical storms, mainly in the West Pacific.

[Scott747]

12z Euro looks a little off early on. Ends up going in s of Brownsville and up through the King Ranch.

[TexasBreeze]

The Euro looks rough to the west of here so far... Cpv17! Close to Bryan CS too Dr. Mu.

[Belmer]

Euro showing 60 inches in Fayette County... ok.

15-20 inches to our west/southwest counties. 5-12 inches around Houston with the lower amounts being further east you are (opposite of GFS).

[jabcwb2]

Euro showing 60 inches in Fayette County... ok.

15-20 inches to our west/southwest counties. 5-12 inches around Houston with the lower amounts being further east you are (opposite of GFS).

When will you know if these numbers verify?

[Belmer]

When will you know if these numbers verify?

I'd like to see a dominant low-level circulation develop that we can track. I see a vigorous eddy that could be it. Further NW than where NHC has it and did line up with the Euro a bit better as far as position. Euro has been more of the outlier on the extreme rainfall totals. 00z runs tonight should provide better clarity... I hope.