September 2021: Hurricane Nicholas

[tireman4]

The first month of meteorological fall ( September 1) as well as the Fall Equinox. What will be in store for us this year?

[captainbarbossa19]

The first month of meteorological fall ( September 1) as well as the Fall Equinox. What will be in store for us this year?

Hopefully cooler weather and no hurricanes!

[MontgomeryCoWx]

College Football, first real cold fronts and the start of a frigid end to another less than ideal year dominated by global idiocy.

[DoctorMu]

College Football, first real cold fronts and the start of a frigid end to another less than ideal year dominated by global idiocy.

Aggies often talk about next year.

To morph a line from The Blind Side:

"It's next year, Bert."

As one of our high school coaches would say: "The biscuits are on the table. Who is the hungriest?"

Time to run the table. Get vaccinated. Test negative. Let's go!

...and bring on some cool, real Fall air!

[weatherguy425]

There has already been some discussion about this, but I figured it belonged more in this thread.

Most models are indicating an area of low pressure will develop In the southern Caribbean or a Gulf of Honduras next week. From there, likely lifting northward. Of course, guidance is all over the place as to its eventual outcome. Something to watch.

[Pas_Bon]

Has there been any more model support for this phantom Labor Day storm?

[Stratton20]

Pas-Bon yes , 00z CMC and GFS runs both are showing or hinting at more gulf mischief in days 7-8

[redneckweather]

College Football, first real cold fronts and the start of a frigid end to another less than ideal year dominated by global idiocy.

I'll drink to that! One more week till college football and the first cool front on the near horizon. My absolute favorite time of year. Roll Tide!

[weatherguy425]

Has there been any more model support for this phantom Labor Day storm?

Operational models have shown a system at times as well as some of each model’s ensemble members. In addition, MJO and some other environmental factors are supportive of development.

The question of exactly when and where, though, remains unanswered.

[Stratton20]

12z Euro showing a weak tropical wave getting into the gulf next week fwiw

[weatherguy425]

12z Euro showing a weak tropical wave getting into the gulf next week fwiw

Ensembles ( EPS, GEFS, GEPS) are a bit more excited with development in the extreme western Caribbean or Bay of Campeche late this-coming week.

[Stratton20]

weatherguy425 yeah i think we may see something try to flare up, the problen is *IF* this were to track into the western gulf, we would have a problem, that energy in that part of the gulf is untapped or undisturbed because IDA looks like it will stay more in the central GOM, almost september and Texas has had some nasty systems in years past in september, definitely something to keep an eye on

[weatherguy425]

weatherguy425 yeah i think we may see something try to flare up, the problen is *IF* this were to track into the western gulf, we would have a problem, that energy in that part of the gulf is untapped or undisturbed because IDA looks like it will stay more in the central GOM, almost september and Texas has had some nasty systems in years past in september, definitely something to keep an eye on

Water temperatures can be important, but are only part of the equation. Land interaction, dry air entrainment and wind shear can individually destroy a system even with ideal water temperature profiles. We’ll just have to see how/if it sets up.

[Stratton20]

I agree with that we will see but FWIW the 12z GFS does show a window in the gulf next week with lower shear, so a system could potentially take advantage of that

[Cpv17]

Definitely something to keep an eye on here.

[DoctorMu]

Ridge building post-Ida. Par for the course when LA 'canes slide by us. I'm looking forward to the first cold front, about a month away.





Football season is here. So, cold and wet ones will be consumed inside in the AC...

[captainbarbossa19]

Ridge building post-Ida. Par for the course when LA 'canes slide by us. I'm looking forward to the first cold front, about a month away.





Football season is here. So, cold and wet ones will be consumed inside in the AC...

Fun. So if we have a storm, it's going to be miserable outside afterwards. Reminds me of post-Rita.

[sambucol]

Would the ridge building back keep any possible tropical system away from Southeast Texas?

[Stratton20]

sambucol its very hard to know that considering what the models are hinting at is late next week, roughly 8 days from now, also very difficult to forecast troughs and ridges beyond that timeframe as well

[sambucol]

Yes, thank you, Stratton, I know it’s a long way out, but was wondering if the ridge DoctorMu spoke of would be one to be over us, and protect our area, or be to the east of us if that model were to verify.