September 2021: Hurricane Nicholas

[DoctorMu]

Could be worse. This could be a really organized storm slamming the LaTex border.

[Scott747]

12x GFS is coming in further e towards Matagorda and then a little ne towards Sargent as a strong ts, low end cane.

Continues inland thru Brazoria and Galveston counties.

[DoctorMu]

I don't like the slow down either....

This isn’t a guaranteed saving grace, but there could be quite a bit of dry air within the circulation as it moves inland and slows.

Then likely a heavily east side rainmaker....as expected. We'll see.

[TXWeatherMan]

12x GFS is coming in further e towards Matagorda and then a little ne towards Sargent as a strong ts, low end cane.

Continues inland thru Brazoria and Galveston counties.

Looks like a shift west from the 06z right?

[Scott747]

12x GFS is coming in further e towards Matagorda and then a little ne towards Sargent as a strong ts, low end cane.

Continues inland thru Brazoria and Galveston counties.

Looks like a shift west from the 06z right?

My fault. Meant left, west.

[TexasBreeze]

995 mb right over Metro Houston on the GFS 12z run. Would be plenty wet and breezy around here!

[don]

Yep looks like the GFS is trending to the other models.Showing a strong tropical storm or category 1 just east of Matagorda Bay.

[jabcwb2]

Hi all! Is this storm going to be a heavy rain maker for northwest Harris county? Thanks for all you do!

[DoctorMu]

12z GFS moves the coast hugging a bit west in agreement with Euro. Waiting for Canadian.

[DoctorMu]

Hi all! Is this storm going to be a heavy rain maker for northwest Harris county? Thanks for all you do!

In a word, Yes.

[Ptarmigan]

Looks like Tropical Storm Nicholas could make landfall around Tuesday. Always subject to change.

[snowman65]

imelda 2 for golden triangle?

[Texaspirate11]

We are getting ready in Galveston. Hope he doesnt stall

[sambucol]

So, would boarding the windows be a good idea in Baytown?

[don]

12Z GFS rainfall totals,showing up to 12+ inches in the corridor of core rains associated with the center.

[Pas_Bon]

It still has yet to obviously follow through, but I am remarkably impressed with how well the GFS has performed thus far. It was the only one calling for Nicholas to hug the coast.

[Ptarmigan]

GFS has hurricane on Tuesday.


HWRF has a hurricane and making landfall on Texas.

[Ptarmigan]

GFS Rainfall Forecast Total


EURO Rainfall Forecast Total

[sambucol]

GFS has hurricane on Tuesday.


HWRF has a hurricane and making landfall on Texas.

979? That’s a high end category 2

[don]

GFS has hurricane on Tuesday.

HWRF has a hurricane and making landfall on Texas.

979? That’s a high end category 2

That's not the right model run, thats last nights 0Z run.The current 12Z has a Category 1 at landfall.