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Re: September 2021: TS Nicholas NW Gulf Threat
Posted: Mon Sep 13, 2021 3:35 pm
by jasons2k
Cromagnum wrote: ↑Mon Sep 13, 2021 2:53 pm
Taking advantage of the free spot-free power rinse that's on the way and washed my truck (I have super softened water due to our community well). Yall can blame me depending which weather gods that pissed off: the ones that will dry slot us to spoil my efforts, or the ones that will drench us because a clean vehicle is a sin.
I did the same thing to my car at lunch!! We have hard water so I can’t ever hand wash at home. I got a free rinse today and took advantage of it.
Re: September 2021: TS Nicholas NW Gulf Threat
Posted: Mon Sep 13, 2021 3:57 pm
by srainhoutx
Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0959
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
410 PM EDT Mon Sep 13 2021
Areas affected...Middle Texas Coast
Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely
Valid 132009Z - 140109Z
Summary...The center of Tropical Storm Nicholas approaching the
middle Texas coast this evening will bring long duration heavy
rainfall with intense rainfall rates 2-3"+/hr at times. Through 10
PM CDT, isolated amounts of 4-6" are likely along the immediate
coast. Flash flooding is likely, some of which could be
significant.
Discussion...As of 20Z, the center of Nicholas was slowly moving
north/northwest toward the middle TX coast. Radar imagery shows a
bit of a lull in more widespread rain bands currently onshore
where instability has been lacking, but just offshore closer to
the center, heavier bands are pivoting northwest toward the coast.
A very tropical airmass in place already with PWs well above 2"
with max around 2.5".
As the center tracks near the coast this evening, increasing low
level convergence and flow nearly perpendicular to the coastline
with enhance the heavy rainfall and rain rates along the immediate
middle TX coast. It will likely be a long duration heavy rain band
on the favored northeast quadrant aided by a steady inflow of 50+
kts at 850 mb within the highly tropical airmass. Instability is
still expected to be best along the immediate coast but should
begin to increase this evening. This will help foster intense rain
rates of at least 2-3"/hr with localized rain bands producing
rates 3-4"/hr, supported by the latest HREF probabilities. The
most likely area for these rates will be between Matagorda Bay
toward Freeport area. This is where some extreme rain totals are
possible, 4-6" with isolated higher amounts through this evening.
Instances of flash flooding will be likely.
Removed from the storm's center there are likely to be more
isolated to scattered but still torrential, tropical rain bands
that will be capable of producing rain rates 2-3"/hr at times.
Some of these bands may try to work into the Houston metro area
where there is higher sensitivity to these type of rain rates and
this could lead to flash flooding as well.
Taylor
ATTN...WFO...CRP...HGX...LCH.
Re: September 2021: TS Nicholas NW Gulf Threat
Posted: Mon Sep 13, 2021 4:19 pm
by bdog38
developing
Re: September 2021: TS Nicholas NW Gulf Threat
Posted: Mon Sep 13, 2021 4:20 pm
by Dls2010r
Track change again or strength I should say
Re: September 2021: TS Nicholas NW Gulf Threat
Posted: Mon Sep 13, 2021 4:27 pm
by Kingwood36
Dls2010r wrote: ↑Mon Sep 13, 2021 4:20 pm
Track change again or strength I should say
I think it's pretty set in stone on the track being so close to making landfall..Strengthening might be upgraded
Re: September 2021: TS Nicholas NW Gulf Threat
Posted: Mon Sep 13, 2021 4:29 pm
by Dls2010r
Yep
Re: September 2021: TS Nicholas NW Gulf Threat
Posted: Mon Sep 13, 2021 4:34 pm
by Cromagnum
May be getting a bit more blustery for folks that weren't counting on it with the track shift.
Re: September 2021: TS Nicholas NW Gulf Threat
Posted: Mon Sep 13, 2021 4:35 pm
by dp6
The newest track is landing just west of Matagorda, up through Bay City, Missouri City, downtown Houston, Atascocita, and Kountze.
Re: September 2021: TS Nicholas NW Gulf Threat
Posted: Mon Sep 13, 2021 4:36 pm
by Kingwood36
Cromagnum wrote: ↑Mon Sep 13, 2021 4:34 pm
May be getting a bit most blustery for folks that weren't counting on it with the track shift.
Track hasn't changed much at all
Re: September 2021: TS Nicholas NW Gulf Threat
Posted: Mon Sep 13, 2021 4:42 pm
by AtascocitaWX
So is it looking better this afternoon to yall?
Re: September 2021: TS Nicholas NW Gulf Threat
Posted: Mon Sep 13, 2021 4:57 pm
by don
The core near the center is getting better organized.The areas that get under the core tonight are going to have really high rainfall rates for a period of time.
Re: September 2021: TS Nicholas NW Gulf Threat
Posted: Mon Sep 13, 2021 5:19 pm
by srainhoutx
Nearing landfall, Nicholas is producing wind gusts to 57 MPH at Matagorda Channel and 44 MPH at Sargent.
Re: September 2021: TS Nicholas NW Gulf Threat
Posted: Mon Sep 13, 2021 5:20 pm
by djmike
Since track shifted east a tad at 4, I have a feeling Beaumont will be in a bad spot. We will see higher gusts now and we will be right smack dab in the NE/E side of all that core rain.
Re: September 2021: TS Nicholas NW Gulf Threat
Posted: Mon Sep 13, 2021 5:24 pm
by prospects8903
djmike wrote: ↑Mon Sep 13, 2021 5:20 pm
Since track shifted east a tad at 4, I have a feeling Beaumont will be in a bad spot. We will see higher gusts now and we will be right smack dab in the NE/E side of all that core rain.
I agree with you I’m in Orange and starting last minute prep
Re: September 2021: TS Nicholas NW Gulf Threat
Posted: Mon Sep 13, 2021 5:30 pm
by DoctorMu
srainhoutx wrote: ↑Mon Sep 13, 2021 5:19 pm
Nearing landfall, Nicholas is producing wind gusts to 57 MPH at Matagorda Channel and 44 MPH at Sargent.
Headed straight to Port O'Connor. Nicholas is putting up a brave fight against the shear. The CoC has really tightened up.
Re: September 2021: TS Nicholas NW Gulf Threat
Posted: Mon Sep 13, 2021 5:35 pm
by DoctorMu
Hot tower forming near the CoC. Nick is giving it best shot to become a hurricane.
https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/s ... &length=24
Re: September 2021: TS Nicholas NW Gulf Threat
Posted: Mon Sep 13, 2021 5:39 pm
by Kingwood36
Getting some steady 30 mph winds here in freeport
Re: September 2021: TS Nicholas NW Gulf Threat
Posted: Mon Sep 13, 2021 5:44 pm
by DoctorMu
Re: September 2021: TS Nicholas NW Gulf Threat
Posted: Mon Sep 13, 2021 5:47 pm
by DoctorMu
Kingwood36 wrote: ↑Mon Sep 13, 2021 5:39 pm
Getting some steady 30 mph winds here in freeport
56 mph gust (49 knot) at Fort O'Connor.
https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page. ... tion=pcnt2
Re: September 2021: TS Nicholas NW Gulf Threat
Posted: Mon Sep 13, 2021 6:10 pm
by redneckweather
Had a squall just hit near Lake Conroe Dam producing borderline tropical storm force gusts and very heavy rain. Wasn't expecting that.