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Re: September 2021: TS Nicholas NW Gulf Threat
Posted: Mon Sep 13, 2021 8:11 pm
by jasons2k
A few observations: it’s pretty cool outside here for an incoming tropical system. It’s doesn’t feel muggy at all - feels almost like fall.
Also, to the northwest it was partially blue skies with a nice bright sunset.
Nicholas is basically half a storm and I am on the edge.
Re: September 2021: TS Nicholas NW Gulf Threat
Posted: Mon Sep 13, 2021 8:15 pm
by srainhoutx
Entrance to Matagorda Channel gusting to 70 now.
Re: September 2021: TS Nicholas NW Gulf Threat
Posted: Mon Sep 13, 2021 8:20 pm
by TexasBreeze
Almost looks like it hit the brakes and turned eastward before trying to make landfall. Similar to hrrr runs earlier.
Re: September 2021: TS Nicholas NW Gulf Threat
Posted: Mon Sep 13, 2021 8:24 pm
by srainhoutx
Matagorda gusting to 81 now from Jeff.
Re: September 2021: TS Nicholas NW Gulf Threat
Posted: Mon Sep 13, 2021 8:25 pm
by davidiowx
TexasBreeze wrote: ↑Mon Sep 13, 2021 8:20 pm
Almost looks like it hit the brakes and turned eastward before trying to make landfall.
Seems like it’s being doing that all day long. Landfall is continuously moving East. It was N. Mexico, S. Texas, and so on. Storms can bounce off land in the curvature of land and has in the past. Strong hurricanes can be quite destructive. Luckily this isn’t one of those!
Re: September 2021: TS Nicholas NW Gulf Threat
Posted: Mon Sep 13, 2021 8:26 pm
by srainhoutx
Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0961
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
853 PM EDT Mon Sep 13 2021
Areas affected...Middle TX Coast
Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely
Valid 140052Z - 140452Z
Summary...The intense rain bands associated with Nicholas will
gradually move onshore through tonight. Rain rates up to 3"/hr
will become common, especially after 10 PM CDT, which will
increase the likelihood of instances of flash flooding.
Discussion...The center of Nicholas slowly moving north/northeast
will begin to come onshore over the next several hours along the
middle Texas coast. Recent radar imagery from CRP and HGX shows
widespread moderate to locally heavy rainfall associated with the
storm's center beginning to impact the coastal areas with a recent
2.13" hourly report from Port O'Connor, TX.
The favorable orientation of the low level flow and convergence
with the coast will enhance the efficiency of the rain bands as
they pivot along the coastal areas between Port O'Connor to near
Jamaica Beach into tonight. The latest RAP suggests 50+ kt of 850
mb flow becoming perpendicular to the coast after 03Z, which will
help drive higher rain rates. This is also where the last several
runs of the HRRR and the 18Z NAM3km show the greatest potential
for rainfall totals greater than 6" through early tonight and
where the HREF probabilities of exceeding 10-year ARI is highest.
The lack of instability inland will likely keep the highest
rainfall totals initially tied to the immediate coast where the
training/repeating rounds setup, with the threat of heaviest
rainfall moving up the coast through the night as the storm tracks
onshore.
Taylor
ATTN...WFO...CRP...HGX...
Re: September 2021: TS Nicholas NW Gulf Threat
Posted: Mon Sep 13, 2021 8:38 pm
by MontgomeryCoWx
jasons2k wrote: ↑Mon Sep 13, 2021 8:11 pm
A few observations: it’s pretty cool outside here for an incoming tropical system. It’s doesn’t feel muggy at all - feels almost like fall.
Also, to the northwest it was partially blue skies with a nice bright sunset.
Nicholas is basically half a storm and I am on the edge.
Funny you mention that. Wife walked outside to watch MNF on the back porch with me, walked back inside and came out with a light jacket.
Re: September 2021: TS Nicholas NW Gulf Threat
Posted: Mon Sep 13, 2021 8:43 pm
by davidiowx
MontgomeryCoWx wrote: ↑Mon Sep 13, 2021 8:38 pm
jasons2k wrote: ↑Mon Sep 13, 2021 8:11 pm
A few observations: it’s pretty cool outside here for an incoming tropical system. It’s doesn’t feel muggy at all - feels almost like fall.
Also, to the northwest it was partially blue skies with a nice bright sunset.
Nicholas is basically half a storm and I am on the edge.
Funny you mention that. Wife walked outside to watch MNF on the back porch with me, walked back inside and came out with a light jacket.
That’s exactly why the high rain chances are done with. Bring on FALL!
Re: September 2021: TS Nicholas NW Gulf Threat
Posted: Mon Sep 13, 2021 8:48 pm
by Rip76
This thing took an East hook.
Re: September 2021: TS Nicholas NW Gulf Threat
Posted: Mon Sep 13, 2021 8:50 pm
by TexasBreeze
On radar it looks like it is almost due south of the city already and the shield of rain is hardly progressing northward from where it is.
Re: September 2021: TS Nicholas NW Gulf Threat
Posted: Mon Sep 13, 2021 8:55 pm
by Rip76
I think from what I’m seeing right now, that with the Easterly movement, Houston may not get the brunt of this.
Re: September 2021: TS Nicholas NW Gulf Threat
Posted: Mon Sep 13, 2021 8:57 pm
by redneckweather
Yep, going east and don't see that convection moving northward. I'm now glad I got that squall earlier because there is a good chance that is all I will see out of this.
Re: September 2021: TS Nicholas NW Gulf Threat
Posted: Mon Sep 13, 2021 8:57 pm
by Kingwood36
It's like he is avoiding making landfall lol
Re: September 2021: TS Nicholas NW Gulf Threat
Posted: Mon Sep 13, 2021 9:01 pm
by Rip76
Don II.
Re: September 2021: TS Nicholas NW Gulf Threat
Posted: Mon Sep 13, 2021 9:04 pm
by Stormlover2020
Cat 1 soon
Re: September 2021: TS Nicholas NW Gulf Threat
Posted: Mon Sep 13, 2021 9:06 pm
by TexasBreeze
It has a nice looking partial eyewall and may be a hurricane soon (half cane like Barry last year). It saw land within a few miles and said nevermind.
Overall the GFS has been the go to model for this system. No 61 inches happening from the EC model yesterday!
Re: September 2021: TS Nicholas NW Gulf Threat
Posted: Mon Sep 13, 2021 9:08 pm
by Kingwood36
Roads are now completely covered and my yard is about half way there..storm surge us picking up here and so is the wind
Re: September 2021: TS Nicholas NW Gulf Threat
Posted: Mon Sep 13, 2021 9:10 pm
by jasons2k
Wow y'all. What an interesting system. Very dynamic with a mixture of dry and tropical air. It's looking more like a Freeport area landfall and a very tight rainfall gradient. I may not be getting much more out of this. Forecasts for Houston and a lot of surrounding areas are going to bust...
Re: September 2021: TS Nicholas NW Gulf Threat
Posted: Mon Sep 13, 2021 9:13 pm
by Kingwood36
jasons2k wrote: ↑Mon Sep 13, 2021 9:10 pm
Wow y'all. What an interesting system. Very dynamic with a mixture of dry and tropical air. It's looking more like a Freeport area landfall and a very tight rainfall gradient. I may not be getting much more out of this. Forecasts for Houston and a lot of surrounding areas are going to bust...
Sure is feeling like it here in freeport..this wind is kinda crazy
Re: September 2021: TS Nicholas NW Gulf Threat
Posted: Mon Sep 13, 2021 9:13 pm
by Stratton20
Thank goodness it looks like rain chances will continue well into next week even after this system is gone! We need the rain badly here
