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I think from what I’m seeing right now, that with the Easterly movement, Houston may not get the brunt of this.

Yep, going east and don't see that convection moving northward. I'm now glad I got that squall earlier because there is a good chance that is all I will see out of this.

It's like he is avoiding making landfall lol

Don II.

Cat 1 soon

It has a nice looking partial eyewall and may be a hurricane soon (half cane like Barry last year). It saw land within a few miles and said nevermind.
Overall the GFS has been the go to model for this system. No 61 inches happening from the EC model yesterday!

Roads are now completely covered and my yard is about half way there..storm surge us picking up here and so is the wind

Wow y'all. What an interesting system. Very dynamic with a mixture of dry and tropical air. It's looking more like a Freeport area landfall and a very tight rainfall gradient. I may not be getting much more out of this. Forecasts for Houston and a lot of surrounding areas are going to bust...

jasons2k wrote: ↑Mon Sep 13, 2021 9:10 pm Wow y'all. What an interesting system. Very dynamic with a mixture of dry and tropical air. It's looking more like a Freeport area landfall and a very tight rainfall gradient. I may not be getting much more out of this. Forecasts for Houston and a lot of surrounding areas are going to bust...

Sure is feeling like it here in freeport..this wind is kinda crazy

Thank goodness it looks like rain chances will continue well into next week even after this system is gone! We need the rain badly here

Models look to bend over Beaumont now. Nicholas looks to be riding the coast east a bit. Still have a bad feeling us in Beaumont Port arthur orange may get the brunt of the core rains and if he taps into Cat 1, our winds here will be a lot higher that what our local mets forecasted. He will also still be very close to the gulf inland to tap into that firehouse and bring us some heavy heavy rains. We shall see. JMO!

CoC just off Matagorda Bay. Starting to bend. Coast hugger as predicted!

You may have seen the link on 2K, but this one's for you, Jason.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y4lRdP3tLqk

Coast hugger? Look at the 0z hrrr model for that!

Yup Dr Mu you are correct
here is from travis herzog
Nicholas has taken a jog east and is now paralleling the coast, refusing to make landfall. If this continues, Houston will be spared from flooding.
Either way, it's a rough night along the coast. Winds are gusting 77-81 mph around Matagorda Bay.

Crazy to see all the mesovortices competing all day.

https://twitter.com/StuOstro/status/143 ... 31779?s=20

Texaspirate11 wrote: ↑Mon Sep 13, 2021 9:29 pm Yup Dr Mu you are correct
here is from travis herzog
Nicholas has taken a jog east and is now paralleling the coast, refusing to make landfall. If this continues, Houston will be spared from flooding.
Either way, it's a rough night along the coast. Winds are gusting 77-81 mph around Matagorda Bay.

Yeah, just saw those gusts a moment ago on the Texas Storm Tracker video. Interacting with shore and Texas dry air.

We actually had a band blow through and then disintegrate. Will post a couple of pics. That very fine tropical droplets of rain.

Potential for serious, flooding rain on the coast remains. Be careful out there.

Nicholas giving the storm chasers the business! More robust than expected.

Cat 1 - just give it to Nick!

Scott747 wrote: ↑Mon Sep 13, 2021 11:16 am Generally there is no sense in checking modeling this close to landfall but with how this storm has behaved and how the GFS has anticipated some of the reformations.

Here we go... 12z GFS tries on last reformation to the ne but doesn't quite pull it off. It does pull it further ne through landfall and closer to Sargent/Bay City and across Brazoria before heading up 288.

If the GFS is right it should start moving inland soon....

Man this wind ain't no joke even for a tropical storm

I agree. Just call it. Category 1 in my eyes.