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Looks like Tropical Storm Nicholas could make landfall around Tuesday. Always subject to change.

imelda 2 for golden triangle?

We are getting ready in Galveston. Hope he doesnt stall

So, would boarding the windows be a good idea in Baytown?

12Z GFS rainfall totals,showing up to 12+ inches in the corridor of core rains associated with the center.

It still has yet to obviously follow through, but I am remarkably impressed with how well the GFS has performed thus far. It was the only one calling for Nicholas to hug the coast.

GFS has hurricane on Tuesday.


HWRF has a hurricane and making landfall on Texas.

GFS Rainfall Forecast Total


EURO Rainfall Forecast Total

Ptarmigan wrote: ↑Sun Sep 12, 2021 12:06 pm GFS has hurricane on Tuesday.


HWRF has a hurricane and making landfall on Texas.

979? That’s a high end category 2

sambucol wrote: ↑Sun Sep 12, 2021 12:13 pm

Ptarmigan wrote: ↑Sun Sep 12, 2021 12:06 pm GFS has hurricane on Tuesday.

HWRF has a hurricane and making landfall on Texas.

979? That’s a high end category 2

That's not the right model run, thats last nights 0Z run.The current 12Z has a Category 1 at landfall.

don wrote: ↑Sun Sep 12, 2021 12:21 pm

sambucol wrote: ↑Sun Sep 12, 2021 12:13 pm

Ptarmigan wrote: ↑Sun Sep 12, 2021 12:06 pm GFS has hurricane on Tuesday.

HWRF has a hurricane and making landfall on Texas.

979? That’s a high end category 2

That's not the right model run, thats last nights 0Z run.The current 12Z has a Category 1 at landfall.

Good to know. Thank you

Nicholas seems to be organizing a little faster than I expected.
Edit: Flash Flood Watch issued from HGX

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1033 AM CDT Sun Sep 12 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING...

The National Weather Service in League City has issued a

* Flash Flood Watch for portions of south central Texas and
southeast Texas, including the following areas, in south central
Texas, Coastal Jackson and Inland Jackson. In southeast Texas,
Bolivar Peninsula, Brazoria Islands, Chambers, Coastal Brazoria,
Coastal Galveston, Coastal Harris, Coastal Matagorda, Fort Bend,
Galveston Island, Inland Brazoria, Inland Galveston, Inland
Harris, Inland Matagorda, Matagorda Islands, Northern Liberty,
Southern Liberty and Wharton.

* From 7 PM CDT this evening through Tuesday evening.

* Periods of heavy rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Nicholas
are expected to result in Flash Flooding across the area.
Widespread total rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches are expected
across the area within the watch with some locally higher totals
of 15 inches.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

12z HWRF up through Matagorda Bay early Tuesday afternoon at 975. Begins to bend a little ne around Bay City and Needville. Looks much like the current NHC track.

sambucol wrote: ↑Sun Sep 12, 2021 12:01 pm So, would boarding the windows be a good idea in Baytown?

This is a rainmaker mostly

They won’t ignore the hwrf hurricane watches will be next

From Travis herzog fb page..

TX coastal residents: I am told there is a strong possibility some of you will be placed under a Hurricane Watch later today. Please stay weather aware. More details in comments.

Do yall think Jefferson county will eventually be included on any TS watch/warning?

Not expecting much from this here in the Wharton/El Campo area. Hoping I can at least get an inch or two from it.

Cpv17 wrote: ↑Sun Sep 12, 2021 1:01 pm Not expecting much from this here in the Wharton/El Campo area. Hoping I can at least get an inch or two from it.

You serious lol

Stormlover2020 wrote: ↑Sun Sep 12, 2021 1:06 pm

Cpv17 wrote: ↑Sun Sep 12, 2021 1:01 pm Not expecting much from this here in the Wharton/El Campo area. Hoping I can at least get an inch or two from it.

You serious lol

Yeah. With the current track, the center would pass about 30 miles east of me. I’d be on the dry side. Hoping it shifts a lil west.