Re: September 2021: TS Nicholas NW Gulf Threat
Posted: Sun Sep 12, 2021 9:31 pm
Back to the original coast rider track all of a sudden. May not be far enough east with more center reforms likely.
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September 2021: Hurricane Nicholas
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Re: September 2021: TS Nicholas NW Gulf Threat
Posted: Sun Sep 12, 2021 9:33 pm
Jim on 26 just showed where the center is fixed a good bit south of where was originally thought. I guess we can throw the next update in the trash since all the models would have initialized on the wrong spot.
Re: September 2021: TS Nicholas NW Gulf Threat
Posted: Sun Sep 12, 2021 9:35 pm
Yep these 00z models have definitely initialized too far east with the center, center looks to be a little more west of where these model think it is, I highly suspect we will see a slight shift westward with the 06z models
Re: September 2021: TS Nicholas NW Gulf Threat
Posted: Sun Sep 12, 2021 9:36 pm
I'd trust my dog telling me about weather before I would trust "Dr jim" lol
Re: September 2021: TS Nicholas NW Gulf Threat
Posted: Sun Sep 12, 2021 9:40 pm
The 18z EPS is nothing at all like the 0z tropical models. The EPS is well west of what that’s showing.
Re: September 2021: TS Nicholas NW Gulf Threat
Posted: Sun Sep 12, 2021 9:42 pm
I’ve been thinking Matagorda since I woke-up and did my first run through on the weather. I see no reason to change my thinking yet. I didn’t post - I just got to work.
Spent the day blowing off the roof, cleaning out the gutters and connecting my downspouts to the new drainage system that runs to the street. I covered my new catch drains with beach pebble - good sized rock. Hauling rock around was actually kinda fun for me - I like working outside and it’s a free workout.
I also cleaned-out the cylinder rain gauge. We are ready for the rain.
Spent the day blowing off the roof, cleaning out the gutters and connecting my downspouts to the new drainage system that runs to the street. I covered my new catch drains with beach pebble - good sized rock. Hauling rock around was actually kinda fun for me - I like working outside and it’s a free workout.
I also cleaned-out the cylinder rain gauge. We are ready for the rain.
Re: September 2021: TS Nicholas NW Gulf Threat
Posted: Sun Sep 12, 2021 9:44 pm
I agree Matagorda,port O'Connor, port Lavaca area is where I'm atjasons2k wrote: ↑Sun Sep 12, 2021 9:42 pm I’ve been thinking Matagorda since I woke-up and did my first run through on the weather. I see no reason to change my thinking yet. I didn’t post - I just got to work.
Spent the day blowing off the roof, cleaning out the gutters and connecting my downspouts to the new drainage system that runs to the street. I covered my new catch drains with beach pebble - good sized rock. Hauling rock around was actually kinda fun for me - I like working outside and it’s a free workout.
I also cleaned-out the cylinder rain gauge. We are ready for the rain.
Re: September 2021: TS Nicholas NW Gulf Threat
Posted: Sun Sep 12, 2021 9:47 pm
Most recent EURO rainfall total forecast.
It has 42 inches of rain over Houston area. It far different from 61 inches of rain in Fayettesville.
Most forecast models have 8 to 15 inches of rain.
It has 42 inches of rain over Houston area. It far different from 61 inches of rain in Fayettesville.
Most forecast models have 8 to 15 inches of rain.
Re: September 2021: TS Nicholas NW Gulf Threat
Posted: Sun Sep 12, 2021 9:50 pm
Recon is back ne. Not sure if they are back to their normal flight pattern or trying to fix another potential center. Not much down by the area from earlier.
Re: September 2021: TS Nicholas NW Gulf Threat
Posted: Sun Sep 12, 2021 9:54 pm
Re: September 2021: TS Nicholas NW Gulf Threat
Posted: Sun Sep 12, 2021 9:59 pm
Cpv17 wrote: ↑Sun Sep 12, 2021 9:03 pmThat would be bad for the Golden Triangle and Louisiana and would significantly reduce rainfall totals across Houston.
As expected. I'm going to call inland naked swirl after a day or two inland
Re: September 2021: TS Nicholas NW Gulf Threat
Posted: Sun Sep 12, 2021 10:02 pm
Not looking too good for me and you at the moment lol I know we both like our rain.
Re: September 2021: TS Nicholas NW Gulf Threat
Posted: Sun Sep 12, 2021 10:03 pm
Latest aircraft reconnaissance passage shows the center is moving to the wsw a bit, models are initiating too far east, this is ridiculous
Re: September 2021: TS Nicholas NW Gulf Threat
Posted: Sun Sep 12, 2021 10:04 pm
Re: September 2021: TS Nicholas NW Gulf Threat
Posted: Sun Sep 12, 2021 10:04 pm
Re: September 2021: TS Nicholas NW Gulf Threat
Posted: Sun Sep 12, 2021 10:08 pm
It’s one model, and an outlier. Houston is not facing Harvey 2.
Re: September 2021: TS Nicholas NW Gulf Threat
Posted: Sun Sep 12, 2021 10:09 pm
For a refreshing, “hype-free “ writeup, check out this informative piece:
https://spacecityweather.com/upgrading- ... -nicholas/
https://spacecityweather.com/upgrading- ... -nicholas/
Re: September 2021: TS Nicholas NW Gulf Threat
Posted: Sun Sep 12, 2021 10:12 pm
Recon peaked up to the ne and didn't find anything and now they are headed up further to the n where the biggest blow up of convection is.
Re: September 2021: TS Nicholas NW Gulf Threat
Posted: Sun Sep 12, 2021 10:20 pm
Looking a little more interesting further n....
Re: September 2021: TS Nicholas NW Gulf Threat
Posted: Sun Sep 12, 2021 10:24 pm
Hurricane watch extended to Freeport
TS warning to High Island
TS watch to Sabine Pass
TS warning to High Island
TS watch to Sabine Pass