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That should move the track back west then...putting houston and the coast with more of the heavy rain threat

This has got to be the most hair pulling storm ever lol

It sure is. Will it strengthen to a hurricane or not. Will it make landfall more west or not.

The track shifted a little to the left of Port O Connor. The 10pm advisory was to the right of Palacios and right near the nuclear plant s of Bay City.

Throwing my hands up - this storm is insane.
I cant remember such uncertainty as this one.

Texaspirate11 wrote: ↑Mon Sep 13, 2021 12:16 am Throwing my hands up - this storm is insane.
I cant remember such uncertainty as this one.

I agree. No telling what it will do overnight at this point.

Pressure down to 1003 mb

New track issued due to the relocation.

The new track lines up perfectly with the GEFS.

UKMET has shifted east and is more in line with the GFS

Best guess is part of Connor to Freeport it seems that's where most of the back in forth is going

Heavy cell coming through Spring now.

Starting to get that shape to it. Would not be surprised to wake up to a cane headed our way.

Cromagnum wrote: ↑Mon Sep 13, 2021 1:02 am Starting to get that shape to it. Would not be surprised to wake up to a cane headed our way.

It’s looking really good right now. DMAX is doing him well.

At 60mph already....

Tropical Storm Nicholas Intermediate Advisory Number 4A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142021
100 AM CDT Mon Sep 13 2021

...AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE FINDS THAT NICHOLAS IS CONTINUING
TO STRENGTHEN...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.1N 96.5W
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM SE OF MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES

Oh geez. 60 mph already? We may looking at a hurricane come sunrise.

00Z ECMWF has shifted towards the other models with landfall near Matagorda Bay and a track to the northeast. No stall this time. It shows similar rainfall totals like the GFS with most seeing 4-8 inches and pockets of 10-15. Max wind gusts could reach close to 60mph in the city though.

djmike wrote: ↑Mon Sep 13, 2021 1:20 am Oh geez. 60 mph already? We may looking at a hurricane come sunrise.

Yep. Nick is getting its act together. The long oval center consolidated north and is riding the Pacific firehose.

From zero to hero on the consolidated center.