September 2021: Hurricane Nicholas

Mon Sep 13, 2021 6:48 am

Kingwood36 wrote: ↑Mon Sep 13, 2021 6:38 am When is he suppose to make landfall? Sometime this evening right?

Last I saw was around 7 AM if it goes to Matagorda Bay.

Mon Sep 13, 2021 6:50 am

Kingwood36 wrote: ↑Mon Sep 13, 2021 6:38 am When is he suppose to make landfall? Sometime this evening right?

The GFS & ECMWF are showing landfall around 5-10pm this afternoon. The ECMWF is a little further west but slower overall while the GFS shows landfall across Matagorda Bay. Based on the latest radar data I would probably aim for closer to the 10pm timeframe. If we see another center relocation that could add change things some

Mon Sep 13, 2021 6:50 am

Cromagnum wrote: ↑Mon Sep 13, 2021 6:48 am
Kingwood36 wrote: ↑Mon Sep 13, 2021 6:38 am When is he suppose to make landfall? Sometime this evening right?
Last I saw was around 7 AM if it goes to Matagorda Bay.

Center relocation has moved up landfall by several hours.

Mon Sep 13, 2021 7:00 am

I know I should wait for recon but I can't help myself.

Either a reformation to the ne is starting to take place and there will be a track adjustment at 10.

Or the current center is having issues and drifting to the e before resuming a heading on the current track and delaying landfall by about 3-6 hrs of current forecast.

Mon Sep 13, 2021 7:01 am

my daughter is in galveston in an apartment. just moved in last month. advice on what she should be preparing for? her classes have not been cancelled yet...kinda dumb..

Mon Sep 13, 2021 7:04 am

snowman65 wrote: ↑Mon Sep 13, 2021 7:01 am my daughter is in galveston in an apartment. just moved in last month. advice on what she should be preparing for? her classes have not been cancelled yet...kinda dumb..

Tropical storm force winds later this evening into the overnight hours with gusts possibly reaching hurricane status. Flooding will also be an issue but should clear up by Tuesday afternoon.

Mon Sep 13, 2021 7:06 am

Andrew wrote: ↑Mon Sep 13, 2021 7:04 am
snowman65 wrote: ↑Mon Sep 13, 2021 7:01 am my daughter is in galveston in an apartment. just moved in last month. advice on what she should be preparing for? her classes have not been cancelled yet...kinda dumb..
Tropical storm force winds later this evening into the overnight hours with gusts possibly reaching hurricane status. Flooding will also be an issue but should clear up by Tuesday afternoon.

thanks!

Mon Sep 13, 2021 7:18 am

Scott747 wrote: ↑Mon Sep 13, 2021 7:00 am I know I should wait for recon but I can't help myself.

Either a reformation to the ne is starting to take place and there will be a track adjustment at 10.

Or the current center is having issues and drifting to the e before resuming a heading on the current track and delaying landfall by about 3-6 hrs of current forecast.

Probably just rotating around the broader low and trying to tuck in closer to the convection. Recon should be telling in the next hour or two.

Mon Sep 13, 2021 7:24 am

06Z ECMWF is a little slower with the turn to the northeast and shows most of the region seeing 5-10 inches

Mon Sep 13, 2021 7:26 am

Channel 13 just reported Nicholas has slowed down to 5mph.

Mon Sep 13, 2021 7:54 am

Gradual pressure falls as recon heads towards the area I think where it could be trying to reform or the original circulation is at least being tugged that way towards the stronger convection as Andrew mentioned.

Also a few obs at flight level around 60 kts.

Mon Sep 13, 2021 7:55 am

Nice little counterclockwise loop in progress.

https://twitter.com/spann/status/143738 ... 01382?s=20

Mon Sep 13, 2021 8:01 am

Wxman57 says heavy rain out of here (Houston) by 9 am Tuesday, and any slow movement would happen after it moves through here and affect areas well to our east.

Mon Sep 13, 2021 8:13 am

Shear decapitation

Mon Sep 13, 2021 8:17 am

Pretty good rain here in freeport had a gust of 50 mph

Mon Sep 13, 2021 8:21 am

Well early into the recon mission and Nicholas is a mess. The original center is quite weak and the area to the ne i've been tracking is attempting to build a core. At least with recon in there we will have an idea in an hour or so.

Mon Sep 13, 2021 8:35 am

10 AM update will be telling. If they can get a new center fix.

Mon Sep 13, 2021 8:38 am

Looking at Brownsville radar you can see the old CoC (red) and a new circulation (blue). Don't know which one will win.

Mon Sep 13, 2021 9:05 am

Nicholas will have a small tight core,expect tropical storm force winds to last for a few hours for areas in the core even inland.As the windfield doesn't look to die down as fast as you normally would expect from a tropical storm or category 1 once making landfall.Also at this point its looking more likely that metro Houston and surrounding areas along the 59 corridor will receive core rains near the center late tonight/tomorrow morning.So while rainfall amounts may be lower than yesterdays thinking, a majority of the rain looks to fall in a short amount of time in the core of Nicholas.Which will lead to flash flooding.Hopefully the center moves out the area at a decent pace.

Mon Sep 13, 2021 9:16 am

don wrote: ↑Mon Sep 13, 2021 9:05 am Nicholas will have a small tight core,expect tropical storm force winds to last for a few hours for areas in the core even inland.As the windfield doesn't look to die down as fast as you normally would expect from a tropical storm or category 1 once making landfall.Also at this point its looking more likely that metro Houston and surrounding areas along the 59 corridor will receive core rains near the center late tonight/tomorrow morning.Hopefully the center moves out the area at a decent pace.

What's it looking like for the Freeport area?

September 2021: Hurricane Nicholas

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