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Re: October 2021
Posted: Fri Oct 15, 2021 10:16 am
by Stratton20
Re: October 2021
Posted: Fri Oct 15, 2021 11:30 am
by Iceresistance
No, this past Winter's forecasts was even worse, remember the February 2021 Forecast?
Re: October 2021
Posted: Fri Oct 15, 2021 11:30 am
by Iceresistance
Cromagnum wrote: ↑Fri Oct 15, 2021 9:52 am
Ptarmigan wrote: ↑Thu Oct 14, 2021 9:02 pm
This could get interesting.
Is this the sudden stratospheric warming that tends to precede strong southerly cold events about a month in advance?
Yes, that happened as well in February 2021
Re: October 2021
Posted: Fri Oct 15, 2021 12:17 pm
by weatherguy425
That may be presented by the weather channel, but the forecast data is from NOAA, the Climate Prediction Center.
Last December and January were WARMER than normal at KIAH. One cold blast doesn’t make the whole winter “cold”. Historically, a La Nina driven winter favors warmer and drier... but, also leaves the area vulnerable to very cold, but *infrequent cold air outbreaks.
EDIT | On further inspection, that is not CPC data, but generally aligns with it. (Attached)
Re: October 2021
Posted: Fri Oct 15, 2021 12:26 pm
by Stratton20
Ah gotcha weatherguy425, but I still think this is a little too much warm biased , i watch trsuted meteorologists on youtube like POW ponder and hes calling for the exact opposite( at least at December and beyond) conditions that this outlook lis showing
Re: October 2021
Posted: Fri Oct 15, 2021 12:28 pm
by weatherguy425
Stratton20 wrote: ↑Fri Oct 15, 2021 12:26 pm
Ah gotcha weatherguy425, but I still think this is a little too much warm biased , i watch trsuted meteorologists on youtube like POW ponder and hes calling for the exact opposite( at least at December and beyond) conditions that this outlook lis showing
And La Nina is only one factor, true.
But, be careful with “trusted Mets” on the Internet...
Re: October 2021
Posted: Fri Oct 15, 2021 12:37 pm
by Stratton20
Weatherguy425 Oh I know to be careful but trust me, hes really good, doesn't hype anything up, but yeah i get what you mean, I have seen weather youtube channels in which someone will post a hurricane on a model run like the GFS 15 days out and make their video based off of unreliable data, definitely get your point though
Re: October 2021
Posted: Fri Oct 15, 2021 2:23 pm
by Iceresistance
Stratton20 wrote: ↑Fri Oct 15, 2021 12:37 pm
Weatherguy425 Oh I know to be careful but trust me, hes really good, doesn't hype anything up, but yeah i get what you mean, I have seen weather youtube channels in which someone will post a hurricane on a model run like the GFS 15 days out and make their video based off of unreliable data, definitely get your point though
Yeah on crazy YT Weather Peoples, if I would post something like that, I would also note: "This is only 1 model run, it's likely going to not be there on the next run unless it starts to develop consistency."
Re: October 2021
Posted: Fri Oct 15, 2021 7:05 pm
by DoctorMu
TWC long range predictions have been laughable all year. Last February was predicted to be extremely warm.
Oops.
Re: October 2021
Posted: Fri Oct 15, 2021 7:07 pm
by DoctorMu
weatherguy425 wrote: ↑Fri Oct 15, 2021 12:17 pm
That may be presented by the weather channel, but the forecast data is from NOAA, the Climate Prediction Center.
Last December and January were WARMER than normal at KIAH. One cold blast doesn’t make the whole winter “cold”. Historically, a La Nina driven winter favors warmer and drier... but, also leaves the area vulnerable to very cold, but *infrequent cold air outbreaks.
EDIT | On further inspection, that is not CPC data, but generally aligns with it. (Attached)
TBH, NOAA's long range predictions haven't been much better 3-5 day progs have been solid...and hurricane predictions.
Re: October 2021
Posted: Fri Oct 15, 2021 7:17 pm
by Iceresistance
DoctorMu wrote: ↑Fri Oct 15, 2021 7:05 pm
TWC long range predictions have been laughable all year. Last February was predicted to be extremely warm.
Oops.
I remembered seeing that on S2K, after the Extreme Cold & Snow in February 2021, I was saying that the Weather pulled an Uno Reverso on the CPC & TWC.
Re: October 2021
Posted: Fri Oct 15, 2021 7:20 pm
by Cpv17
I wouldn’t worry about what any long range outlooks say. They most likely won’t pan out. Not wise to look at them unless you just take it with a grain of salt.
Re: October 2021
Posted: Fri Oct 15, 2021 8:00 pm
by Katdaddy
Well stated Cpv17. I learned many years ago…..pre-Storm2K days at GoPbi in 1997 that a model run is not the answer. Multiple model runs with consistency and 3-5 days out is my focus now days. With that said, I am ready for the cold…..Fall front down here in W League City.
Re: October 2021
Posted: Fri Oct 15, 2021 8:03 pm
by Katdaddy
And yes and long range forecast can and will change over time.
Re: October 2021
Posted: Fri Oct 15, 2021 8:32 pm
by DoctorMu
Stratton20 wrote: ↑Fri Oct 15, 2021 12:37 pm
Weatherguy425 Oh I know to be careful but trust me, hes really good, doesn't hype anything up, but yeah i get what you mean, I have seen weather youtube channels in which someone will post a hurricane on a model run like the GFS 15 days out and make their video based off of unreliable data, definitely get your point though
Bastardi? He's a lunatic, but occasionally right with an outside the box analysis or prediction.
Re: October 2021
Posted: Fri Oct 15, 2021 8:47 pm
by Stratton20
DoctorMu oh no its a different dude, this guys channel , this dude will post a model run of the GFS of a “Major”hurricane when its 16 days out and basically start fear mongering and saying everyone needs to watch out for this, he has been wrong every time
Re: October 2021
Posted: Sat Oct 16, 2021 8:10 am
by Iceresistance
Stratton20 wrote: ↑Fri Oct 15, 2021 8:47 pm
DoctorMu oh no its a different dude, this guys channel , this dude will post a model run of the GFS of a “Major”hurricane when its 16 days out and basically start fear mongering and saying everyone needs to watch out for this, he has been wrong every time
It's not Direct Weather for starters, is it "Ryan Hall Y'all"?
Re: October 2021
Posted: Sat Oct 16, 2021 10:21 am
by Cromagnum
It's beautiful in Savannah Georgia right now. Highs in mid 70s and lows in upper 40s at night. Beautiful vacation weather.
Re: October 2021
Posted: Sat Oct 16, 2021 11:06 am
by Stratton20
Iceresistance his channel name is weatherman plus
Re: October 2021
Posted: Sat Oct 16, 2021 1:21 pm
by Cpv17
Iceresistance wrote: ↑Sat Oct 16, 2021 8:10 am
Stratton20 wrote: ↑Fri Oct 15, 2021 8:47 pm
DoctorMu oh no its a different dude, this guys channel , this dude will post a model run of the GFS of a “Major”hurricane when its 16 days out and basically start fear mongering and saying everyone needs to watch out for this, he has been wrong every time
It's not Direct Weather for starters, is it "Ryan Hall Y'all"?
I don’t trust that Direct Weather guy at all. I really for the most part haven’t found any YouTube channels I trust for the weather.
