Weather Rescue this week with the Tue night/Wed front bringing a heavy round of showers. Progged for a reinforcing dry front on Friday that will dip dewpoints into the 40s, possibly less.
FXUS64 KHGX 242322
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
622 PM CDT Sun Oct 24 2021
.AVIATION...
VFR early this evening. Still looking for IFR/LIFR conditions to
eventually develop and persist in the late evening through early
morning hours inland TAF sites with light winds in place. By mid
to late morning hours tomorrow, improvements to VFR are expected
with SW to S winds developing. VFR heading into tomorrow evening
with mainly light S winds. 42
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 PM CDT Sun Oct 24 2021/
SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Monday Night]...
Subsidence has set in behind the shortwave that passed though last
night and earlier this morning. Winds should diminish this evening,
and with mclear skies, look for areas of fog to develop across the
region. Guidance remains bullish on the dense fog potential, so the
morning rush will likely be slower than usual.
Surface high pressure is fcst to be situated in the nw Gulf which
should provide a llvl swly flow and some hot temps once the fog
burns off. Went on the higher side of guidance suggestions for
highs. Rain chances should be close to nil. Expecting another shot
of fog Monday night. 47
LONG TERM [Tuesday Through Sunday]...
A major pattern shift begins to arrive on Tuesday as a maturing
lee cyclone in the Western Plains begins to push eastward, with an
associated surface cold front pushing into the South Central
CONUS.
Global models continue to indicate the development of a
midlevel shortwave trough ahead of this feature, which will
trigger scattered showers and storms across SE TX during the
afternoon and evening hours. Development will generally occur
along and south of the I-10 corridor. Precipitation coverage
associated with the passing shortwave remains uncertain, as the
GFS solution depicts a slightly more vigorous trough feature and
more widespread rainfall while the EC`s coverage remains more
scattered in nature. Have kept maximum PoPs in the 20-30% range
through Tuesday evening as a result of this uncertainty.
The main frontal boundary remains expected to push into the area
on Wednesday, with both the EC/GFS solutions now indicating its
arrival late Wednesday morning to the west of I-45 and progression
east to southeastward. GFS remains slightly more progressive in
pushing the front out of the area and into Louisiana by late
Wednesday afternoon, while the EC fropa is a few hours slower.
Widespread showers and storms will accompany the fropa, with a few
strong storms possible given the ample moisture (1.75+ in total
PW) and instability (1500-2000 J/kg SBCAPE). Some storms may
produce locally heavy downpours and gusty winds, though
widespread severe weather is not expected. By Wednesday evening,
precipitation will depart and a rapid clearing is anticipated as
drier air moves into the area. Moderate northwest winds will
accompany the departure of the front, and gusty conditions will
likely persist into Thursday.
Conditions through the remainder of the week and into the weekend
will be
markedly different from the abnormally warm and humid
days of late. Daytime highs through at least Sunday will peak in
the mid to upper 70s in most locations, while overnight lows will
drop into the 50s to low 60s (and into the upper 40s across areas
north of the Houston metro on Friday and Saturday!). The
accompanying
reduction in surface dew points into the 30s and 40s
will provide pleasant conditions for any weekend outdoor
activities.
Cady
MARINE...
With the departure of an upper shortwave and associated convection
today, surface winds have relaxed across the coastal waters and
caution flags have subsequently been dropped. Winds remain light
on Monday as the synoptic pressure gradient loosens, but the
development of surface low pressure in the west Central CONUS will
strengthen the gradient by Tuesday and moderate onshore winds are
expected to return. A surface cold front will approach the area
on Wednesday, with moderate to strong offshore flow developing in
its wake. Wind speeds of up to 25 knots are expected to persist
into Friday with higher gusts expected, and seas will build to
around 6 to 8 feet offshore. Additionally, showers and storms
accompanying the frontal passage may produce heavy downpours and
strong wind gusts. Small Craft Advisories will likely be required
during this time. Winds diminish to around 10 to 15 knots heading
into the weekend as surface high pressure moves into the area.
Cady
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 72 92 70 86 67 / 0 0 0 10 60
Houston (IAH) 73 90 70 86 72 / 0 0 0 20 50
Galveston (GLS) 77 87 77 84 77 / 0 0 0 20 40