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Posted: **Sun Jul 25, 2010 1:02 pm**

Surprise...

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al992010.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201007251707
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 99, 2010, DB, O, 2010072512, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL992010
AL, 99, 2010072418, , BEST, 0, 210N, 974W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 99, 2010072500, , BEST, 0, 210N, 974W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 99, 2010072506, , BEST, 0, 210N, 975W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 99, 2010072512, , BEST, 0, 210N, 976W, 20, 1013, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1016, 150, 0, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,

Code: Select all

647 
WHXX01 KWBC 251711
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1710 UTC SUN JUL 25 2010

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL992010) 20100725 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
100725 1200 100726 0000 100726 1200 100727 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 21.0N 97.6W 21.7N 98.9W 22.2N 100.4W 23.0N 101.9W
BAMD 21.0N 97.6W 21.0N 98.9W 20.8N 100.1W 20.9N 101.2W
BAMM 21.0N 97.6W 21.5N 98.9W 21.9N 100.2W 22.4N 101.4W
LBAR 21.0N 97.6W 21.2N 98.7W 22.0N 100.2W 22.8N 102.0W
SHIP 20KTS 26KTS 33KTS 39KTS
DSHP 20KTS 24KTS 26KTS 26KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
100727 1200 100728 1200 100729 1200 100730 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 23.7N 103.5W 25.1N 106.4W 26.2N 109.2W 27.2N 111.9W
BAMD 21.1N 102.5W 22.0N 105.2W 22.9N 108.4W 23.7N 111.7W
BAMM 23.0N 102.8W 24.3N 105.5W 25.5N 108.2W 26.6N 111.1W
LBAR 23.8N 104.0W 26.1N 107.8W 29.0N 111.2W 32.0N 113.1W
SHIP 45KTS 55KTS 60KTS 59KTS
DSHP 27KTS 27KTS 27KTS 28KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 21.0N LONCUR = 97.6W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 1KT
LATM12 = 21.0N LONM12 = 97.4W DIRM12 = 270DEG SPDM12 = 0KT
LATM24 = 21.0N LONM24 = 97.2W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 0NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1013MB OUTPRS = 1016MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN

Posted: **Sun Jul 25, 2010 1:38 pm**

I figured they would flip the switch on this. I'm not sure it is ever going to be a problem.

Posted: **Sun Jul 25, 2010 2:00 pm**

Looked at the satellite...Looks like this is headed inland. Why the invest?

Posted: **Sun Jul 25, 2010 2:09 pm**

Maybe they think the flow around the ULL will pull this back out over the Gulf... Not sure yet.

Posted: **Sun Jul 25, 2010 3:03 pm**

Is this from Invest 98L by any chance because I remember it in the same location.

Posted: **Sun Jul 25, 2010 3:23 pm**

It looks good for being half on land.. What about the blob S of Brownsville? It looks like it is breaking off from 99 and moving over water...

Posted: **Sun Jul 25, 2010 3:29 pm**

My thoughts exactly - why the 99L invest when 1) its already overland 2) probably won't affect any us land 3) don't see the point.

Posted: **Sun Jul 25, 2010 4:06 pm**

I wondered what the chances of it getting pulled up in the flow around the UUL that passed yesterday and ride up the shoot so to speak. Don't know that it would have much chance of intensification.

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