November 2021

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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Iceresistance
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12z GFS has Rain/Snow mix in Central/South-Central Texas Thanksgiving week
Kingwood36
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Iceresistance wrote: Fri Nov 12, 2021 11:07 am 12z GFS has Rain/Snow mix in Central/South-Central Texas Thanksgiving week
I don't buy it
Iceresistance
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Kingwood36 wrote: Fri Nov 12, 2021 11:30 am
Iceresistance wrote: Fri Nov 12, 2021 11:07 am 12z GFS has Rain/Snow mix in Central/South-Central Texas Thanksgiving week
I don't buy it
I don't either since it was not there before, but it's something we may need to keep an eye on.
Stratton20
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Iceresistance that is far out, but something worth at least just casually watching for now
Iceresistance
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Freeze Warning for the entire state (Oklahoma) for tonight.
Stratton20
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FWIW the 12z Euro is showing signs of an arctic intrusion about 10 days from now
redneckweather
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Iceresistance wrote: Fri Nov 12, 2021 11:07 am 12z GFS has Rain/Snow mix in Central/South-Central Texas Thanksgiving week
Yep, the GFS has been showing a cold front around Thanksgiving give or take for days now. Will it be as extreme as the latest run? Who knows but confidence is growing that we won't be blow torched this Thanksgiving.
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tireman4
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This is new....
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Iceresistance
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redneckweather wrote: Fri Nov 12, 2021 2:19 pm
Iceresistance wrote: Fri Nov 12, 2021 11:07 am 12z GFS has Rain/Snow mix in Central/South-Central Texas Thanksgiving week
Yep, the GFS has been showing a cold front around Thanksgiving give or take for days now. Will it be as extreme as the latest run? Who knows but confidence is growing that we won't be blow torched this Thanksgiving.
The 18z GFS has backed off slightly to Oklahoma, but it's colder further north as well.
Stratton20
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I feel like that the GFS always has a warm biacy, even during the fall/ winter months, I could be wrong, but thats just how I see it🤷‍♂️🤷‍♂️
Cpv17
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Stratton20 wrote: Fri Nov 12, 2021 2:08 pm FWIW the 12z Euro is showing signs of an arctic intrusion about 10 days from now
Somewhat. The high up north is still not as strong as I’d like for it to be and there appears to be too much of a positive PNA which would slide the core of the cold well east of us but that’s way far out so take it with a grain of salt of course.
Iceresistance
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Cpv17 wrote: Fri Nov 12, 2021 7:46 pm
Stratton20 wrote: Fri Nov 12, 2021 2:08 pm FWIW the 12z Euro is showing signs of an arctic intrusion about 10 days from now
Somewhat. The high up north is still not as strong as I’d like for it to be and there appears to be too much of a positive PNA which would slide the core of the cold well east of us but that’s way far out so take it with a grain of salt of course.
The Climate Prediction Center has the Ensembles turning the PNA Negative next week.
Cpv17
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Iceresistance wrote: Fri Nov 12, 2021 8:05 pm
Cpv17 wrote: Fri Nov 12, 2021 7:46 pm
Stratton20 wrote: Fri Nov 12, 2021 2:08 pm FWIW the 12z Euro is showing signs of an arctic intrusion about 10 days from now
Somewhat. The high up north is still not as strong as I’d like for it to be and there appears to be too much of a positive PNA which would slide the core of the cold well east of us but that’s way far out so take it with a grain of salt of course.
The Climate Prediction Center has the Ensembles turning the PNA Negative next week.
We need it to be neutral or at least close to it.
Stratton20
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CPV17 but wouldnt a negative PNA be good though?
Cpv17
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Stratton20 wrote: Fri Nov 12, 2021 10:09 pm CPV17 but wouldnt a negative PNA be good though?
No. That would put the core of the cold out west.
Stratton20
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00Z Euro starting to indicate that we may get an arctic blast sometime about 9-10 days from now, where the cold air goes remains to be seen, but a signal is definitely their for much colder air to enter the US in the next 10 days
Iceresistance
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First Freeze of the year, 30°F
Kingwood36
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Stratton20 wrote: Sat Nov 13, 2021 1:45 am 00Z Euro starting to indicate that we may get an arctic blast sometime about 9-10 days from now, where the cold air goes remains to be seen, but a signal is definitely their for much colder air to enter the US in the next 10 days
Don't pull at my heart strings 😂
redneckweather
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37 degrees this morning here near Lake Conroe and looks like highs will be in the mid 60's today under sunny deep eternal blue skies. I'll take it!
Stratton20
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Kingwood36 haha thats why i said it remains to be seen where the cold air goes,I dont wanna say it will come directly into Texas and then it doesnt😆😆🤣
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