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Wouldn’t really call 30’s for lows and 50’s for highs a bust in November but maybe that’s just me.

CPV17 I lived in norway for a few years so 50’s and lows for 30’s are a heatwave to me lol

12Z GFS still continuing to show very heavy rain on Thanksgiving/Black Friday in southeast Texas.With cyclogenisis forming a surface low over the area enhancing rainfall. As models are showing a potent cut off low moving over the state,which is what triggers the surface reflection over southeast Texas.With the divergent flow from the upper low slowing down the front.

And with deep pacific moisture in place what looks to be a strong and slow moving MCS forms and moves over the area.The Euro shows a similar setup, but is much more progressive with the MCS that forms therefore showing lower rainfall totals than the GFS. Not buying it yet but this needs to be watched if other models start to jump onboard.

FYI: If arctic air was in place this would actually be a great snowstorm setup for us,but the pacific air will make sure anything frozen stays far north of us.

Cpv17 wrote: ↑Thu Nov 18, 2021 10:58 am Wouldn’t really call 30’s for lows and 50’s for highs a bust in November but maybe that’s just me.

Yep its still going to be cold,but some of us have to remember that were in southeast Texas and its only November LOL.Theirs limits to how cold the air can get this time of year.The big arctic outbreaks don't usually happen this early in the season for us.So far things seem to be pretty seasonal this fall.And honestly i really wouldn't want a big dump of cold air this early.I rather have it stay up there for a while building up and decent snow pack forming in the plains first so the air doesn't modify as much. And with an active pacific storm pattern we may have another winter storm this year.But i don't think temps will get as cold as last February.

Models are now looking less progressive with next weeks system and really look to dig the low pretty far south which gives me more confidence that this could be a big ticket rain event.

Cpv17 wrote: ↑Thu Nov 18, 2021 1:57 pm Models are now looking less progressive with next weeks system and really look to dig the low pretty far south which gives me more confidence that this could be a big ticket rain event.

Meaning less "cold"?

Yes it means less cold, disappointing, but a heavy rain event is on the table now

I'm moving to Russia

Stratton20 wrote: ↑Thu Nov 18, 2021 2:35 pm Yes it means less cold, disappointing, but a heavy rain event is on the table now

Yep, at least that. I’d still wait a few more days though on the cold. Models can always swing back to it.

Kingwood36 wrote: ↑Thu Nov 18, 2021 2:53 pm I'm moving to Russia

Alaska sounds better

CPV17 plus im pretty sure this system is still out over the pacific , so definitely lots can and will change

HGX mentioning in the afternoon discussion today that a significant weather event is possible next Thanksgiving/Black Friday.

.LONG TERM [Saturday Through Thursday]...
Dry zonal flow will be giving way late Saturday as an upper
trough moves through the Plains. This will keep the onshore flow
going Saturday with a warming trend and moistening back up. Sunday
morning the associated cold front pushes southward and likely
through SETX Sunday afternoon. Moderate moisture return and
minimal CAPE set the stage for just low end chances for picking
up much in the way of precip Sunday. Strong drying arrives post
frontal with moderate northerly winds and temperatures struggle to
rise back into the lower 70s north (prior to the front). High
temperatures may occur in the late morning/early afternoon prior
to the front and then fall. Monday high pressure with sun. SETX
should have much cooler weather as we radiate down Monday night
and the winds start to relax inland. High pressure over the area
slides east and the return flow gets back underway Tuesday. Very
mild conditions are expected before the winds pick up Tuesday
night with a vigorous upper trough digging down into CA. Moisture
return starts off meager but as this upper low evolves into a
potent storm system the WAA just cranks up. Wednesday should be
warm and breezy. The main focus is shifting into Thanksgiving and
Black Friday time frame as this upper low approaches. Deep
moisture transport on strong inflow to the system will place SETX
in the warm sector for Thanksgiving so be sure the turkey fryers
are tied down (and safe from fire). Have trended way up on
temperatures in advance of the front Abundant moisture and strong
dynamics are coming into play for this period. Timing still an
issue but just a heads up a significant rain/wind/severe event is
shaping up for SETX. Stay tuned.

Thanks for the coordination neighboring offices on the
Thanksgiving event.

Better not rain..I have 4 turkeys to smoke on Thanksgiving

Kingwood36 wrote: ↑Thu Nov 18, 2021 5:10 pm Better not rain..I have 4 turkeys to smoke on Thanksgiving

I believe (correct me if I’m wrong) that November is the #1 month in southeast TX for tornadoes. It’s also the month where we can occasionally get large tornadoes as well like what happened in Channelview in 1992.

Cpv17 wrote: ↑Thu Nov 18, 2021 5:22 pm

Kingwood36 wrote: ↑Thu Nov 18, 2021 5:10 pm Better not rain..I have 4 turkeys to smoke on Thanksgiving

I believe (correct me if I’m wrong) that November is the #1 month in southeast TX for tornadoes. It’s also the month where we can occasionally get large tornadoes as well like what happened in Channelview in 1992.

That may be for Houston. There's usually a cap in March and April over HOU, although up in College Station, tornadoes are more likely in the Spring than closer to the coast.

Kingwood36 wrote: ↑Thu Nov 18, 2021 2:53 pm I'm moving to Russia

Our average high in November is in the low 70s. Average low in the low 50s to upper 40s north.

30s to 50s or hell, 40s to 60s is well below average.

I think some of y’all are just miserable to be around with anomalous expectations for cold.

And that’s coming from someone who loathes hot weather. We very rarely get COLD in November. Yeah it can get chilly, but not Cold.

This November has been very average by historical standards.

MontgomeryCoWx wrote: ↑Thu Nov 18, 2021 8:09 pm

Kingwood36 wrote: ↑Thu Nov 18, 2021 2:53 pm I'm moving to Russia

Our average high in November is in the low 70s. Average low in the low 50s to upper 40s north.

30s to 50s or hell, 40s to 60s is well below average.

I think some of y’all are just miserable to be around with anomalous expectations for cold.

And that’s coming from someone who loathes hot weather. We very rarely get COLD in November. Yeah it can get chilly, but not Cold.

This November has been very average by historical standards.

I approve this message.

And, yes I had to look up anomalous.

MontgomeryCoWx wrote: ↑Thu Nov 18, 2021 8:09 pm

Kingwood36 wrote: ↑Thu Nov 18, 2021 2:53 pm I'm moving to Russia

Our average high in November is in the low 70s. Average low in the low 50s to upper 40s north.

30s to 50s or hell, 40s to 60s is well below average.

I think some of y’all are just miserable to be around with anomalous expectations for cold.

And that’s coming from someone who loathes hot weather. We very rarely get COLD in November. Yeah it can get chilly, but not Cold.

This November has been very average by historical standards.

It's a joke man....I get it ..it's November I'm not expecting a damn blizzard around here.. just trying to make conversation and have a laugh..don't take it seriously. No worries though I won't comment here anymore. Later

The 0z Euro is back at it again with snow in Oklahoma & into Kansas & Missouri, this time it's Thanksgiving Weekend.


EDIT: I forgot to mention that the PNA is way more neutral than expected right now, we could pull this off Thanksgiving Week into the weekend if it holds. Also recorded 29°F at my house this morning

Kingwood36 wrote: ↑Fri Nov 19, 2021 12:05 am

MontgomeryCoWx wrote: ↑Thu Nov 18, 2021 8:09 pm

Kingwood36 wrote: ↑Thu Nov 18, 2021 2:53 pm I'm moving to Russia

Our average high in November is in the low 70s. Average low in the low 50s to upper 40s north.

30s to 50s or hell, 40s to 60s is well below average.

I think some of y’all are just miserable to be around with anomalous expectations for cold.

And that’s coming from someone who loathes hot weather. We very rarely get COLD in November. Yeah it can get chilly, but not Cold.

This November has been very average by historical standards.

It's a joke man....I get it ..it's November I'm not expecting a damn blizzard around here.. just trying to make conversation and have a laugh..don't take it seriously. No worries though I won't comment here anymore. Later

I don't think he is basing that just off that one comment you made but more of your past history of constant 3rd grade crybaby (he hit me Mommy) comments. Just a thought. No need to leave either...I like a little humor around here.