December 2021
-
Kingwood36
- Posts: 1592
- Joined: Sat Dec 29, 2018 10:29 am
- Location: Freeport
- Contact:
Damn near refreshing out there today
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Stratton20
- Posts: 4248
- Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
- Location: College Station, Texas
- Contact:
Cromagnum 300 mph!!?!? Wow... That has to be some sort of record if that verifies
Check out these snow totals:
Insane!
Insane!
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tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 4488
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
000
FXUS64 KHGX 131211
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
611 AM CST Mon Dec 13 2021
.DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM [Today Through Wednesday]...
A gradual warming trend continues today and tomorrow with onshore
flow helping to increase temperatures and dewpoint. Mostly cloudy
skies will keep us from warming too quickly today, but highs
should still reach near 70 for most of Southeast Texas. With
subtle ridging aloft helping to maintain a low-level inversion for
our coastal and southern sites combining with a favorable
southeast fetch across the Gulf Waters pushing in higher DP air,
patchy sea fog could develop and persist today through tomorrow
near the coast. Despite this low-level inversion, some elevated
stratiform precip cannot be ruled out today either with most short
term models picking up on some isolated showers throughout the
day . These isolated showers should impact our coastal areas first
in the morning before pushing further inland throughout the day
and peaking in activity and coverage during the late afternoon.
Therefore, coastal and western counties have the best chances for
seeing some isolated rain showers today where the best low level
moisture advection and warm theta-e advection will occur. By
tonight, skies will remain overcast which will only let temps cool
down into the 60s overnight.
As skies begin to clear out tomorrow, temps will climb quickly
into the upper 70s and near 80 for Southeast Texas. As mentioned
earlier, coastal and southern counties will still remain in a
favorable set up for patchy sea fog throughout the day on Tuesday.
Rain chances also begin to slowly increase for southwestern and
western counties as the 850-900 mb cap erodes, but should still
remain isolated in coverage. Temperatures will only cool into the
mid to upper 60s on Tuesday night. As winds decouple and dewpoint
depressions lower, some patchy radiation fog cannot be ruled out
for inland areas, especially for rural and low-lying areas.
.LONG TERM [Wednesday Through Monday]...
The new heat run that begins on Tuesday looks to be at or near its
peak on Wednesday, as ridging reaches its strongest. Look for
temperatures to reach or slightly exceed 80 degrees for most of
the area, with the exception of the far north and along the coast,
where temperatures look to stay in the upper half of the 70s.
Don`t expect things to cool off much overnight - onshore flow at
low levels and southwest flow aloft is usually a pretty good
recipe for low stratus and some fog, and it should be no surprise
that the forecast has precisely that. Low temperatures will
struggle to fall much below 70 degrees overnight until the next
front arrives.
Come Thursday, we`re still looking for a potent trough in the
northern stream to shove a front into northeast Texas before it
stalls out. While the front certainly won`t be making an
appearance in the area, it should get close enough that between
it, the dent the upper trough should put over our ridging, some
increased cloudiness, and perhaps even enough upward motion for
some showers, and we just may manage to keep things the slightest
bit cooler. Don`t get me wrong, I still have a solid patch of
highs in the lower 80s, but it may fall just a bit short of
Wednesday for the most part.
With the dent put in place by the trough swinging through the
Great Plains on Thursday, another trough digging deeper into the
Rockies on Friday will continue to erode the strong ridge setup
that dominates most of the week. Friday again should be
anomalously warm, but falling just a bit short of Wednesday and
Thursday. Friday should be mostly rain-free, albeit mostly cloudy
as the shifts to the synoptic setup so far are mostly small,
marginal changes.
That change becomes much more significant late Friday night into
Saturday morning. A strong, 1040ish high looks to drop into the
Great Plains, shoving a stronger cold front right through the
remains of the previous front on right through Southeast Texas and
the coastal Gulf waters. This will be vigorous enough to support
showers and some thunderstorms ahead of and along the front.
Though this high should weaken some to around 1030 mb through the
day as it drops into the Southern Plains, it will easily be strong
enough to force in considerably cooler, drier air on gusty north
winds. Temperatures at midnight are likely to be the warmest
locations like College Station, Madisonville, and Crockett get all
day Saturday. Closer to the coast, the sun has a shot to get
temperatures up into the 70s before the front sweeps through and
chops temperatures down. Regardless of where you are in Southeast
Texas, temperatures will surely be on the slide by mid-afternoon.
Despite being a pretty strong surface high, Gulf ridging does not
want to go quietly into the night. In addition to only being
bumped deeper into the Gulf than kicked out entirely, the northern
stream upper trough looks to leave behind a pretty solid amount of
vorticity back around the Big Bend after it exits to the
northeast. This does not set us up for a stretch of colder, drier,
fair weather behind the front. We should be cooler, and at least
see some briefly drier surface layer air...but the bigger picture
continues to give us southerly to southwesterly flow aloft, a
remnant upper trough to our west, and in a gradient between warm,
humid air to the southeast and cold, dry air to the northwest that
kind of just begs for some isentropic upglide.
While there`s not a real cohesive narrative for just how this
will play out in the guidance, there`s enough consensus for this
broad environment that continued chances for rain into early next
week is only a smart play. Like last night, the general fuzziness
in the specifics have me mostly just extending some near-climo
PoPs through the weekend. Eventually, the remnant vorticity to our
west will drift across the area and exit to the east, bringing an
end to rain chances. I have this happening in our deterministic
forecast Monday night or so, but I would not get too tied to
a specific timing on that just yet.
&&
.AVIATION [12Z TAF Issuance]...
Overcast skies will slowly transition to MVFR ceilings today. By
early evening, patchy sea fog is expected to develop near coastal
sites and impact visibility. With an approaching warm front from
the south, isolated showers are also possible today, mainly along
the coast and for our western counties, but so isolated in nature
that it did not warrant a VCSH yet for TAF sites. Expect short
fused amendments and visibility impacts should a shower pass over
an airport. Otherwise, conditions will continue to deteriorate
throughout the evening with most sites reaching IFR ceilings
around sunset and dropping to LIFR during the overnight hours.
Radiation fog is also expected to develop for most inland
terminals, but should dissipate after sunrise tomorrow. However,
coastal areas should remain impacted by sea fog and visibility
will be very slow to recover back to IFR tomorrow.
&&
.MARINE...
Expect winds to become more easterly today, then more
southeasterly overnight as a warm front moves northward across the
waters. Light to moderate onshore then continues through the rest
of the week until a cold front arrives Saturday. Once the warm
front moves through, expect warmer, more humid air to begin to
flow over a water surface that has been cooled over the weekend.
Because of this sea fog potential for the coastal and bay areas
will increase. The first hints may appear as early Monday night,
but potential will be greater in subsequent nights, and continue
until the front crosses on Saturday.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 66 61 79 67 80 / 10 20 20 10 10
Houston (IAH) 68 63 80 67 81 / 20 10 10 10 10
Galveston (GLS) 72 68 77 70 77 / 20 10 10 0 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Lenninger
LONG TERM...Luchs
AVIATION...Lenninger
MARINE...Luchs
FXUS64 KHGX 131211
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
611 AM CST Mon Dec 13 2021
.DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM [Today Through Wednesday]...
A gradual warming trend continues today and tomorrow with onshore
flow helping to increase temperatures and dewpoint. Mostly cloudy
skies will keep us from warming too quickly today, but highs
should still reach near 70 for most of Southeast Texas. With
subtle ridging aloft helping to maintain a low-level inversion for
our coastal and southern sites combining with a favorable
southeast fetch across the Gulf Waters pushing in higher DP air,
patchy sea fog could develop and persist today through tomorrow
near the coast. Despite this low-level inversion, some elevated
stratiform precip cannot be ruled out today either with most short
term models picking up on some isolated showers throughout the
day . These isolated showers should impact our coastal areas first
in the morning before pushing further inland throughout the day
and peaking in activity and coverage during the late afternoon.
Therefore, coastal and western counties have the best chances for
seeing some isolated rain showers today where the best low level
moisture advection and warm theta-e advection will occur. By
tonight, skies will remain overcast which will only let temps cool
down into the 60s overnight.
As skies begin to clear out tomorrow, temps will climb quickly
into the upper 70s and near 80 for Southeast Texas. As mentioned
earlier, coastal and southern counties will still remain in a
favorable set up for patchy sea fog throughout the day on Tuesday.
Rain chances also begin to slowly increase for southwestern and
western counties as the 850-900 mb cap erodes, but should still
remain isolated in coverage. Temperatures will only cool into the
mid to upper 60s on Tuesday night. As winds decouple and dewpoint
depressions lower, some patchy radiation fog cannot be ruled out
for inland areas, especially for rural and low-lying areas.
.LONG TERM [Wednesday Through Monday]...
The new heat run that begins on Tuesday looks to be at or near its
peak on Wednesday, as ridging reaches its strongest. Look for
temperatures to reach or slightly exceed 80 degrees for most of
the area, with the exception of the far north and along the coast,
where temperatures look to stay in the upper half of the 70s.
Don`t expect things to cool off much overnight - onshore flow at
low levels and southwest flow aloft is usually a pretty good
recipe for low stratus and some fog, and it should be no surprise
that the forecast has precisely that. Low temperatures will
struggle to fall much below 70 degrees overnight until the next
front arrives.
Come Thursday, we`re still looking for a potent trough in the
northern stream to shove a front into northeast Texas before it
stalls out. While the front certainly won`t be making an
appearance in the area, it should get close enough that between
it, the dent the upper trough should put over our ridging, some
increased cloudiness, and perhaps even enough upward motion for
some showers, and we just may manage to keep things the slightest
bit cooler. Don`t get me wrong, I still have a solid patch of
highs in the lower 80s, but it may fall just a bit short of
Wednesday for the most part.
With the dent put in place by the trough swinging through the
Great Plains on Thursday, another trough digging deeper into the
Rockies on Friday will continue to erode the strong ridge setup
that dominates most of the week. Friday again should be
anomalously warm, but falling just a bit short of Wednesday and
Thursday. Friday should be mostly rain-free, albeit mostly cloudy
as the shifts to the synoptic setup so far are mostly small,
marginal changes.
That change becomes much more significant late Friday night into
Saturday morning. A strong, 1040ish high looks to drop into the
Great Plains, shoving a stronger cold front right through the
remains of the previous front on right through Southeast Texas and
the coastal Gulf waters. This will be vigorous enough to support
showers and some thunderstorms ahead of and along the front.
Though this high should weaken some to around 1030 mb through the
day as it drops into the Southern Plains, it will easily be strong
enough to force in considerably cooler, drier air on gusty north
winds. Temperatures at midnight are likely to be the warmest
locations like College Station, Madisonville, and Crockett get all
day Saturday. Closer to the coast, the sun has a shot to get
temperatures up into the 70s before the front sweeps through and
chops temperatures down. Regardless of where you are in Southeast
Texas, temperatures will surely be on the slide by mid-afternoon.
Despite being a pretty strong surface high, Gulf ridging does not
want to go quietly into the night. In addition to only being
bumped deeper into the Gulf than kicked out entirely, the northern
stream upper trough looks to leave behind a pretty solid amount of
vorticity back around the Big Bend after it exits to the
northeast. This does not set us up for a stretch of colder, drier,
fair weather behind the front. We should be cooler, and at least
see some briefly drier surface layer air...but the bigger picture
continues to give us southerly to southwesterly flow aloft, a
remnant upper trough to our west, and in a gradient between warm,
humid air to the southeast and cold, dry air to the northwest that
kind of just begs for some isentropic upglide.
While there`s not a real cohesive narrative for just how this
will play out in the guidance, there`s enough consensus for this
broad environment that continued chances for rain into early next
week is only a smart play. Like last night, the general fuzziness
in the specifics have me mostly just extending some near-climo
PoPs through the weekend. Eventually, the remnant vorticity to our
west will drift across the area and exit to the east, bringing an
end to rain chances. I have this happening in our deterministic
forecast Monday night or so, but I would not get too tied to
a specific timing on that just yet.
&&
.AVIATION [12Z TAF Issuance]...
Overcast skies will slowly transition to MVFR ceilings today. By
early evening, patchy sea fog is expected to develop near coastal
sites and impact visibility. With an approaching warm front from
the south, isolated showers are also possible today, mainly along
the coast and for our western counties, but so isolated in nature
that it did not warrant a VCSH yet for TAF sites. Expect short
fused amendments and visibility impacts should a shower pass over
an airport. Otherwise, conditions will continue to deteriorate
throughout the evening with most sites reaching IFR ceilings
around sunset and dropping to LIFR during the overnight hours.
Radiation fog is also expected to develop for most inland
terminals, but should dissipate after sunrise tomorrow. However,
coastal areas should remain impacted by sea fog and visibility
will be very slow to recover back to IFR tomorrow.
&&
.MARINE...
Expect winds to become more easterly today, then more
southeasterly overnight as a warm front moves northward across the
waters. Light to moderate onshore then continues through the rest
of the week until a cold front arrives Saturday. Once the warm
front moves through, expect warmer, more humid air to begin to
flow over a water surface that has been cooled over the weekend.
Because of this sea fog potential for the coastal and bay areas
will increase. The first hints may appear as early Monday night,
but potential will be greater in subsequent nights, and continue
until the front crosses on Saturday.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 66 61 79 67 80 / 10 20 20 10 10
Houston (IAH) 68 63 80 67 81 / 20 10 10 10 10
Galveston (GLS) 72 68 77 70 77 / 20 10 10 0 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Lenninger
LONG TERM...Luchs
AVIATION...Lenninger
MARINE...Luchs
-
Iceresistance
- Posts: 577
- Joined: Fri Apr 30, 2021 11:48 pm
- Location: Tecumseh, OK
- Contact:
That may be the record for Kentucky, but that's not the world record, that belongs to the May 3rd, 1999 Bridge Creek-Moore, OK monster, with a confirmed wind speed of 318 mph. (May be higher or lower, but 318 mph is undisputed.)Stratton20 wrote: ↑Sat Dec 11, 2021 4:55 pm Cromagnum 300 mph!!?!? Wow... That has to be some sort of record if that verifies
Is that the strongest wind gust ever recorded in the world? Or just the strongest from a tornado?Iceresistance wrote: ↑Mon Dec 13, 2021 10:12 amThat may be the record for Kentucky, but that's not the world record, that belongs to the May 3rd, 1999 Bridge Creek-Moore, OK monster, with a confirmed wind speed of 318 mph. (May be higher or lower, but 318 mph is undisputed.)Stratton20 wrote: ↑Sat Dec 11, 2021 4:55 pm Cromagnum 300 mph!!?!? Wow... That has to be some sort of record if that verifies
-
Iceresistance
- Posts: 577
- Joined: Fri Apr 30, 2021 11:48 pm
- Location: Tecumseh, OK
- Contact:
Strongest wind ever from a tornado & possibly the fastest ever recorded in the world.Cpv17 wrote: ↑Mon Dec 13, 2021 11:31 amIs that the strongest wind gust ever recorded in the world? Or just the strongest from a tornado?Iceresistance wrote: ↑Mon Dec 13, 2021 10:12 amThat may be the record for Kentucky, but that's not the world record, that belongs to the May 3rd, 1999 Bridge Creek-Moore, OK monster, with a confirmed wind speed of 318 mph. (May be higher or lower, but 318 mph is undisputed.)Stratton20 wrote: ↑Sat Dec 11, 2021 4:55 pm Cromagnum 300 mph!!?!? Wow... That has to be some sort of record if that verifies
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 4488
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
000
FXUS64 KHGX 132102
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
302 PM CST Mon Dec 13 2021
.SHORT TERM [Through Tuesday Night]...
Areas of drizzle or light rain will continue as a coastal trough
moves into the mid to upper Texas coasts today into tonight. WAA
across SE Texas will rise dewpoints into the mid to upper 60s
tonight; as they approach minimum temperatures values, areas of fog
are expected to develop. Sea fog will also be possible as the warm
moist Gulf air moves over the nearshore waters and bays. As the sun
rises and southeasterly winds increase in the morning, expect fog to
gradually dissipate and cloud decks to rise. However, areas near the
waters could continue to see some patchy fog throughout the day
Tuesday. Slight chance of rain will continue into Tuesday, mainly
for the northern and western portions of the CWA. The warming trend
will also prevail as onshore flow continues to bring in warm moist
air from the Gulf. Thus, maximum temperatures will be around 10
degrees warmer in several spots, ranging between the upper 70s and
low 80s in the afternoon. Low cloud decks and areas of patchy fog
expected to redevelop Tuesday night. 24
&&
.LONG TERM [Wednesday through Monday]...
Upper level ridging expanding over the western Gulf will impinge
into SE TX. 500 mb heights will build to 588 dM which is yet again
above seasonal normals. The higher heights will once again support
warmer temperatures, however the SW flow aloft on the backside of
the ridge will allow for a series of upper level disturbances to
cross SE TX. Generally cloudy skies are expected on Wednesday
with a passing shower. Morning temps will start out in the upper
60`s so it won`t require much heating to warm to around 80 degrees
or so in the afternoon. 500 mb heights decrease on Thursday as the
upper ridge over the Gulf weakens and shifts SE. The flow aloft
remains SW so can`t rule out some showers. Precipitation could
become more organized by Thursday afternoon as models hint at
increased divergence courtesy of a departing 80 knot speed max.
MaxT values will again be warm as there is little change in 850
mb temperatures from Wednesday. Considering the warm start to the
day, MaxT values should warm into the lower 80`s. High temperature
records for Thursday range from 78 degrees at KCLL to 82 degrees
at Houston. A few temperature records are likely to fall on
Thursday.
More of the same on Friday. 500 mb heights continue to fall as the
ridge is placed to the east but once again, there is no
appreciable change in 850 mb temperatures. MaxT values will be
similar to Thursday with high temperatures in the lower 80`s. The
flow aloft is out of the southwest so clouds will be prevalent and
can`t rule out a passing shower. That said, PW values dip a bit
from Thursday and jet dynamics look less impressive so rain
chances should be less than Thursday.
One other issue to contend with will be the potential for sea fog.
Dew points are progged to be near 70 degrees Wed-Fri. The water
temperature is currently in the lower 60`s. The water temps will
probably warm as SE winds return but the Tw/Td differential looks
large enough to generate some fog over the bays and nearshore
waters. Timing the onset, intensity and duration is always a tough
call, but the potential for sea fog looks rather high toward the
end of the week.
A cold front will cross SE TX late Friday night or early Saturday.
A swath of showers and thunderstorms will accompany the front as
it moves across SE TX. There will be a contrast in temperatures
across SE TX on Saturday as as areas to the south of the front
remain in the 70`s during the morning with falling temperatures
in the afternoon. The cold front will cross the NW part of the CWA
between 12-14z and temperatures over the NW will remain steady or
slowly fall into the upper 50`s by late afternoon.
Although the surface front moves into the Gulf, it doesn`t move
too far into the Gulf. A slow moving short wave over the desert SW
on Saturday will move very slowly toward West Texas on Sunday.
Southwest winds aloft will override the N-NE surface winds at the
surface. Periods of showers will increase in coverage on Sunday
with some moderate rainfall possibly focusing on the 850 mb front
which will be draped from about Livingston to Katy to Edna. The
short wave trough axis will clear SE TX early Monday and the
precip will end. Sunday will remain rather cooler with extensive
cloud cover, rainfall and weak cold air advection. MaxT values
will range from the lower 50`s inland to lower 60`s along the
immediate coast. 43
&&
.MARINE...
High pressure will remain over the eastern US and a warm front
will move back to the north tonight. Weak onshore winds will
develop tonight and gradually increase in speed on Tuesday. A
light to moderate onshore flow is expected Tues night through
Friday as low pressure develops and moves across the central
plains. A cold front will cross the coastal waters next Saturday
with a line of showers and thunderstorms accompanying the front.
Winds will become N-NE in the wake of the front.
The onshore flow will bring higher moisture levels across the
cooler shelf waters and some sea fog will be possible. Timing,
intensity and duration of sea fog events is always a tough call
but conditions are favorable for sea fog tonight until the
frontal passage early Saturday. The highest dew points will be
toward the end of the week so at this time, the best potential for
sea fog looks like it`ll be Thu/Fri.
The persistent onshore flow will also bring an increase in water
levels toward the end of the week. Water levels will reach 3.0
feet by Thursday evening. 43
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 61 79 67 80 69 / 20 20 10 10 10
Houston (IAH) 63 80 67 81 68 / 10 10 10 10 10
Galveston (GLS) 68 77 70 77 70 / 10 10 0 10 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
FXUS64 KHGX 132102
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
302 PM CST Mon Dec 13 2021
.SHORT TERM [Through Tuesday Night]...
Areas of drizzle or light rain will continue as a coastal trough
moves into the mid to upper Texas coasts today into tonight. WAA
across SE Texas will rise dewpoints into the mid to upper 60s
tonight; as they approach minimum temperatures values, areas of fog
are expected to develop. Sea fog will also be possible as the warm
moist Gulf air moves over the nearshore waters and bays. As the sun
rises and southeasterly winds increase in the morning, expect fog to
gradually dissipate and cloud decks to rise. However, areas near the
waters could continue to see some patchy fog throughout the day
Tuesday. Slight chance of rain will continue into Tuesday, mainly
for the northern and western portions of the CWA. The warming trend
will also prevail as onshore flow continues to bring in warm moist
air from the Gulf. Thus, maximum temperatures will be around 10
degrees warmer in several spots, ranging between the upper 70s and
low 80s in the afternoon. Low cloud decks and areas of patchy fog
expected to redevelop Tuesday night. 24
&&
.LONG TERM [Wednesday through Monday]...
Upper level ridging expanding over the western Gulf will impinge
into SE TX. 500 mb heights will build to 588 dM which is yet again
above seasonal normals. The higher heights will once again support
warmer temperatures, however the SW flow aloft on the backside of
the ridge will allow for a series of upper level disturbances to
cross SE TX. Generally cloudy skies are expected on Wednesday
with a passing shower. Morning temps will start out in the upper
60`s so it won`t require much heating to warm to around 80 degrees
or so in the afternoon. 500 mb heights decrease on Thursday as the
upper ridge over the Gulf weakens and shifts SE. The flow aloft
remains SW so can`t rule out some showers. Precipitation could
become more organized by Thursday afternoon as models hint at
increased divergence courtesy of a departing 80 knot speed max.
MaxT values will again be warm as there is little change in 850
mb temperatures from Wednesday. Considering the warm start to the
day, MaxT values should warm into the lower 80`s. High temperature
records for Thursday range from 78 degrees at KCLL to 82 degrees
at Houston. A few temperature records are likely to fall on
Thursday.
More of the same on Friday. 500 mb heights continue to fall as the
ridge is placed to the east but once again, there is no
appreciable change in 850 mb temperatures. MaxT values will be
similar to Thursday with high temperatures in the lower 80`s. The
flow aloft is out of the southwest so clouds will be prevalent and
can`t rule out a passing shower. That said, PW values dip a bit
from Thursday and jet dynamics look less impressive so rain
chances should be less than Thursday.
One other issue to contend with will be the potential for sea fog.
Dew points are progged to be near 70 degrees Wed-Fri. The water
temperature is currently in the lower 60`s. The water temps will
probably warm as SE winds return but the Tw/Td differential looks
large enough to generate some fog over the bays and nearshore
waters. Timing the onset, intensity and duration is always a tough
call, but the potential for sea fog looks rather high toward the
end of the week.
A cold front will cross SE TX late Friday night or early Saturday.
A swath of showers and thunderstorms will accompany the front as
it moves across SE TX. There will be a contrast in temperatures
across SE TX on Saturday as as areas to the south of the front
remain in the 70`s during the morning with falling temperatures
in the afternoon. The cold front will cross the NW part of the CWA
between 12-14z and temperatures over the NW will remain steady or
slowly fall into the upper 50`s by late afternoon.
Although the surface front moves into the Gulf, it doesn`t move
too far into the Gulf. A slow moving short wave over the desert SW
on Saturday will move very slowly toward West Texas on Sunday.
Southwest winds aloft will override the N-NE surface winds at the
surface. Periods of showers will increase in coverage on Sunday
with some moderate rainfall possibly focusing on the 850 mb front
which will be draped from about Livingston to Katy to Edna. The
short wave trough axis will clear SE TX early Monday and the
precip will end. Sunday will remain rather cooler with extensive
cloud cover, rainfall and weak cold air advection. MaxT values
will range from the lower 50`s inland to lower 60`s along the
immediate coast. 43
&&
.MARINE...
High pressure will remain over the eastern US and a warm front
will move back to the north tonight. Weak onshore winds will
develop tonight and gradually increase in speed on Tuesday. A
light to moderate onshore flow is expected Tues night through
Friday as low pressure develops and moves across the central
plains. A cold front will cross the coastal waters next Saturday
with a line of showers and thunderstorms accompanying the front.
Winds will become N-NE in the wake of the front.
The onshore flow will bring higher moisture levels across the
cooler shelf waters and some sea fog will be possible. Timing,
intensity and duration of sea fog events is always a tough call
but conditions are favorable for sea fog tonight until the
frontal passage early Saturday. The highest dew points will be
toward the end of the week so at this time, the best potential for
sea fog looks like it`ll be Thu/Fri.
The persistent onshore flow will also bring an increase in water
levels toward the end of the week. Water levels will reach 3.0
feet by Thursday evening. 43
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 61 79 67 80 69 / 20 20 10 10 10
Houston (IAH) 63 80 67 81 68 / 10 10 10 10 10
Galveston (GLS) 68 77 70 77 70 / 10 10 0 10 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
Question….did NWS issue any PDS watches/warnings prior to the Outbreak Friday night?
-
Iceresistance
- Posts: 577
- Joined: Fri Apr 30, 2021 11:48 pm
- Location: Tecumseh, OK
- Contact:
Sooo. Does anyone think we will have real winter any time soon? This cold for 1-2 days then hot 6 days flip flop is for the birds. Any cold stretch in the foreseeable future?
Mike
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
Not really. We’ll have a stretch for a few days starting this weekend where temps will be near average or slightly below it but other than that it looks pretty bleak. The teleconnections just aren’t lining up in our favor. There’s lots of cold in our source region but no mechanism to send it this way.
-
Stratton20
- Posts: 4248
- Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
- Location: College Station, Texas
- Contact:
Well that sure does put a damper on my holiday spirits
Could be near 80° for Christmas.
I know I’m probably in the minority, but this weather is just fine for me. I won’t mind a little cool snap over Christmas if it stays above freezing, but besides that, this is great for me. I can be out on my patio at night (like I am now) and not get chilly. I can drive around with the windows rolled-down. It’s ideal for exercise. We get a good rain when we need it. I love this weather, no matter what month it is. I think this is great - wonderful! For me, this is perfect for December.
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Iceresistance
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Today is already looking very terrifying. 
In what regard?
From Jeff:
A powerful storm system will bring widespread significant impacts to much of the Great plains and Midwest today and tonight.
Locally, the near/record warmth continues over the area with record highs falling at both Hobby and Galveston on Tuesday and each day through Friday will see similar temperatures and potential for records to fall. Currently Galveston is on track for its top warmest December along with Hobby through the first 14 days of the month. Strong southerly winds will develop today feeding incredible moisture transport into a rapidly deepening storm system over the plains and Midwest. Surface pressure will fall rapidly into the 980’s mb across the plains as this system ejects out of the central Rockies and toward the western great Lakes. S winds of 15-25mph will be common over our region along with temperatures in the low 80’s and a passing shower. Associated front will stall across N TX and not reach us locally, so continued very warm into Friday.
Secondary push of cold air moves down the plains late this week and across TX then offshore allowing temperatures to return to near normal for mid December. Showers and a few thunderstorms will accompany the front late Friday into early Saturday morning. Post frontal air mass will feature temperatures falling into the 50’s on Saturday under mostly cloudy skies and gusty N winds. Energy still hangs back to the west, so clearing will be slowed until early next week and rain chances will remain in the forecast for Sunday and Monday, but as feared earlier the amount of rainfall in guidance has been generally downward…as is such in La Nina winters. Most of the area will be capped in the 50’s again on Sunday with clouds and passing showers/light rain.
Severe Weather Outbreak/Critical Fire Weather/Wind:
Today will bring a widespread and high impact weather event to much of the southern/central plains, Midwest and western Great Lakes and the front range of the Rockies. SPC has issued an unprecedented Moderate risk for severe thunderstorm winds and tornadoes centered on Iowa and southern MN for this afternoon on this mid December day. Records indicate that a tornado has never been recorded in MN in the month of December. Similar to last Friday, a severe weather outbreak this far north this time of year is extraordinarily rare.
In addition to the severe threat, a widespread area of 50-70mph winds will develop over the plains and Rockies front range today as the surface cyclone deepens rapidly. Gusts along the front range could reach 90-100mph. These winds coupled with dry and dead grasses will likely lead to a significant plains wildfire outbreak. With the downsloping westerly winds this afternoon RH values will fall below 10% across much of the western high plains and as far south as the TX panhandle…fire spread will be explosive in the forecasted environment.
With the strong SW flow temperatures will soar across the plains and Midwest with all-time December temperature records likely to fall and daily records falling by several degrees.
When you look at the historic context of last Friday/Saturday’s Tornado Outbreak and then this storm system less than a week later…there just is no historic comparison…the tornado outbreak alone for this time of year in that location is historic and should the severe risk materialize today as forecasted yet again there is no known modern day precedent in the outlooked area.
A powerful storm system will bring widespread significant impacts to much of the Great plains and Midwest today and tonight.
Locally, the near/record warmth continues over the area with record highs falling at both Hobby and Galveston on Tuesday and each day through Friday will see similar temperatures and potential for records to fall. Currently Galveston is on track for its top warmest December along with Hobby through the first 14 days of the month. Strong southerly winds will develop today feeding incredible moisture transport into a rapidly deepening storm system over the plains and Midwest. Surface pressure will fall rapidly into the 980’s mb across the plains as this system ejects out of the central Rockies and toward the western great Lakes. S winds of 15-25mph will be common over our region along with temperatures in the low 80’s and a passing shower. Associated front will stall across N TX and not reach us locally, so continued very warm into Friday.
Secondary push of cold air moves down the plains late this week and across TX then offshore allowing temperatures to return to near normal for mid December. Showers and a few thunderstorms will accompany the front late Friday into early Saturday morning. Post frontal air mass will feature temperatures falling into the 50’s on Saturday under mostly cloudy skies and gusty N winds. Energy still hangs back to the west, so clearing will be slowed until early next week and rain chances will remain in the forecast for Sunday and Monday, but as feared earlier the amount of rainfall in guidance has been generally downward…as is such in La Nina winters. Most of the area will be capped in the 50’s again on Sunday with clouds and passing showers/light rain.
Severe Weather Outbreak/Critical Fire Weather/Wind:
Today will bring a widespread and high impact weather event to much of the southern/central plains, Midwest and western Great Lakes and the front range of the Rockies. SPC has issued an unprecedented Moderate risk for severe thunderstorm winds and tornadoes centered on Iowa and southern MN for this afternoon on this mid December day. Records indicate that a tornado has never been recorded in MN in the month of December. Similar to last Friday, a severe weather outbreak this far north this time of year is extraordinarily rare.
In addition to the severe threat, a widespread area of 50-70mph winds will develop over the plains and Rockies front range today as the surface cyclone deepens rapidly. Gusts along the front range could reach 90-100mph. These winds coupled with dry and dead grasses will likely lead to a significant plains wildfire outbreak. With the downsloping westerly winds this afternoon RH values will fall below 10% across much of the western high plains and as far south as the TX panhandle…fire spread will be explosive in the forecasted environment.
With the strong SW flow temperatures will soar across the plains and Midwest with all-time December temperature records likely to fall and daily records falling by several degrees.
When you look at the historic context of last Friday/Saturday’s Tornado Outbreak and then this storm system less than a week later…there just is no historic comparison…the tornado outbreak alone for this time of year in that location is historic and should the severe risk materialize today as forecasted yet again there is no known modern day precedent in the outlooked area.
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