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6z GFS maybe showing consistency for some snow in the 1st full week of December, in the long run, there is some winter mischief in Texas, from Western to Central to Eastern Texas.

Iceresistance far out but something to watch in case the GFS starts showing it in future runs

12z GFS tries the snow, but there is too much dryness.

Screw the snow just give us some cold

Kingwood36 wrote: ↑Sun Nov 28, 2021 11:05 am Screw the snow just give us some cold

It's going to be below freezing for the Northern Half of Texas at it's peak from the 12z GFS

Watched Pow Ponder this morning. If I’m not mistaken, he said the Arctic air is coming down and it sounded like the same time frame the models are showing. He is in Texas.
https://youtu.be/-EnVB9IXoAo

sambucol pow ponder is a great meteorologist, his videos are always super informative and yeah he has been talking aboit that arctic air

sambucol wrote: ↑Sun Nov 28, 2021 11:38 am Watched Pow Ponder this morning. If I’m not mistaken, he said the Arctic air is coming down and it sounded like the same time frame the models are showing. He is in Texas.
https://youtu.be/-EnVB9IXoAo

He didn't really say much about cold air entering Texas tho unless I missed it

I agree. Last January he was talking about the sudden stratospheric warming that would lead to the historic temps and freezing weather we got here. Because of his warning, I started preparing my property 2 weeks before it hit mainstream weather news.

Yup Pow ponder nailed it with the stratospheric warming event that lead to the arctic outbreak last february, so i definitely trust what he has to say

Kingwood36 wrote: ↑Sun Nov 28, 2021 11:53 am

sambucol wrote: ↑Sun Nov 28, 2021 11:38 am Watched Pow Ponder this morning. If I’m not mistaken, he said the Arctic air is coming down and it sounded like the same time frame the models are showing. He is in Texas.
https://youtu.be/-EnVB9IXoAo

He didn't really say much about cold air entering Texas tho unless I missed it

Give it time. It will.

Stratton20 wrote: ↑Sun Nov 28, 2021 11:56 am Yup Pow ponder nailed it with the stratospheric warming event that lead to the arctic outbreak last february, so i definitely trust what he has to say

Me too.

I'm sure another Stratwarm will cause the cold to come here eventually this winter.

Stratton20 wrote: ↑Sat Nov 27, 2021 3:34 pm CPV17 but how does the sea surface temps near Alaska effect our winter? Wouldn't the colder than normal current sea temps help the cold air build in that region?

Warmer SST’s in that area help build a ridge which blocks zonal flow allowing for the jet stream to buckle and form a trough which will send the cold air southward.

Cpv17 wrote: ↑Sun Nov 28, 2021 1:36 pm

Stratton20 wrote: ↑Sat Nov 27, 2021 3:34 pm CPV17 but how does the sea surface temps near Alaska effect our winter? Wouldn't the colder than normal current sea temps help the cold air build in that region?

Warmer SST’s in that area help build a ridge which blocks zonal flow allowing for the jet stream to buckle and form a trough which will send the cold air southward.

The SSTs near Alaska have warmed up lately

18z GFS is shoving the cold FASTER compared to 12z

Barely miss out the snow, but the Temperatures are COLDER compared to 12z.


18z GFS is proof is why you should NEVER give up!

Iceresistance wrote: ↑Sun Nov 28, 2021 5:03 pm Barely miss out the snow, but the Temperatures are COLDER compared to 12z.


18z GFS is proof is why you should NEVER give up!

You are right.

Iceresistance lets hope the GFS continues on this positive trend toward a colder solution

Tonights 00z model runs, stopped them at day 10 (hour 240) CMC on the left and GFS on the right, talk about some crazy model disagreement