Wx Infinity Forums

Kingwood36 wrote: ↑Sun Nov 28, 2021 11:53 am

sambucol wrote: ↑Sun Nov 28, 2021 11:38 am Watched Pow Ponder this morning. If I’m not mistaken, he said the Arctic air is coming down and it sounded like the same time frame the models are showing. He is in Texas.
https://youtu.be/-EnVB9IXoAo

He didn't really say much about cold air entering Texas tho unless I missed it

Stratton20 wrote: ↑Sun Nov 28, 2021 11:56 am Yup Pow ponder nailed it with the stratospheric warming event that lead to the arctic outbreak last february, so i definitely trust what he has to say

Stratton20 wrote: ↑Sat Nov 27, 2021 3:34 pm CPV17 but how does the sea surface temps near Alaska effect our winter? Wouldn't the colder than normal current sea temps help the cold air build in that region?

Cpv17 wrote: ↑Sun Nov 28, 2021 1:36 pm

Stratton20 wrote: ↑Sat Nov 27, 2021 3:34 pm CPV17 but how does the sea surface temps near Alaska effect our winter? Wouldn't the colder than normal current sea temps help the cold air build in that region?

Warmer SST’s in that area help build a ridge which blocks zonal flow allowing for the jet stream to buckle and form a trough which will send the cold air southward.

Iceresistance wrote: ↑Sun Nov 28, 2021 5:03 pm Barely miss out the snow, but the Temperatures are COLDER compared to 12z.


18z GFS is proof is why you should NEVER give up!

Stratton20 wrote: ↑Sun Nov 28, 2021 11:52 pm Tonights 00z model runs, stopped them at day 10 (hour 240) CMC on the left and GFS on the right, talk about some crazy model disagreement

Stratton20 wrote: ↑Mon Nov 29, 2021 1:13 am TXweatherman well in this case I only go out as far as 10 days since thats as far out as the CMC goes , just crazy how 2 models can have such different solutions, wonder what each model is picking up on to have such a different outcome

Stratton20 wrote: ↑Sun Nov 28, 2021 11:52 pm Tonights 00z model runs, stopped them at day 10 (hour 240) CMC on the left and GFS on the right, talk about some crazy model disagreement

srainhoutx wrote: ↑Mon Nov 29, 2021 8:38 am Volatility is going to continue within the guidance for the next couple of weeks. A lot of atmospheric changes are happening. MJO finally moving out of the COD into colder phase 7, tropical disturbances development in the W PAC after being virtually dead all summer and a Strat Warning event developing within the next 10 days. Keep an eye on the Christmas Holiday period. Into the New Year.

Iceresistance wrote: ↑Mon Nov 29, 2021 11:08 am 12z GFS tries to have snow in Oklahoma & parts of Northern Texas, but there is too much dryness.

On the Temperature, you can see the DFW Heat Island