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Posted: **Mon Nov 29, 2021 12:40 am**

Stratton20 wrote: ↑Sun Nov 28, 2021 11:52 pm Tonights 00z model runs, stopped them at day 10 (hour 240) CMC on the left and GFS on the right, talk about some crazy model disagreement

That’s usually what happens when it’s 10+ days out

Posted: **Mon Nov 29, 2021 1:13 am**

TXweatherman well in this case I only go out as far as 10 days since thats as far out as the CMC goes , just crazy how 2 models can have such different solutions, wonder what each model is picking up on to have such a different outcome

Posted: **Mon Nov 29, 2021 6:54 am**

Stratton20 There is a crazy amount of snow 10 days out on the 0z CMC, mostly along I-40 in Oklahoma (Center of the snowbands)

Posted: **Mon Nov 29, 2021 8:11 am**

Stratton20 wrote: ↑Mon Nov 29, 2021 1:13 am TXweatherman well in this case I only go out as far as 10 days since thats as far out as the CMC goes , just crazy how 2 models can have such different solutions, wonder what each model is picking up on to have such a different outcome

500mb pattern is very different. CMC has an Alaska to North Pole ridge. GFS has a stout Low and very low heights in the GOA.

Posted: **Mon Nov 29, 2021 8:38 am**

Volatility is going to continue within the guidance for the next couple of weeks. A lot of atmospheric changes are happening. MJO finally moving out of the COD into colder phase 7, tropical disturbances development in the W PAC after being virtually dead all summer and a Strat Warning event developing within the next 10 days. Keep an eye on the Christmas Holiday period. Into the New Year.

Posted: **Mon Nov 29, 2021 10:15 am**

Stratton20 wrote: ↑Sun Nov 28, 2021 11:52 pm Tonights 00z model runs, stopped them at day 10 (hour 240) CMC on the left and GFS on the right, talk about some crazy model disagreement

Not unusual that far out in Wx Fantasyland.

Posted: **Mon Nov 29, 2021 10:16 am**

srainhoutx wrote: ↑Mon Nov 29, 2021 8:38 am Volatility is going to continue within the guidance for the next couple of weeks. A lot of atmospheric changes are happening. MJO finally moving out of the COD into colder phase 7, tropical disturbances development in the W PAC after being virtually dead all summer and a Strat Warning event developing within the next 10 days. Keep an eye on the Christmas Holiday period. Into the New Year.

Wet and unsettled La Nina? Interesting.

Posted: **Mon Nov 29, 2021 11:08 am**

12z GFS tries to have snow in Oklahoma & parts of Northern Texas, but there is too much dryness.

On the Temperature, you can see the DFW Heat Island

Posted: **Mon Nov 29, 2021 11:22 am**

Iceresistance wrote: ↑Mon Nov 29, 2021 11:08 am 12z GFS tries to have snow in Oklahoma & parts of Northern Texas, but there is too much dryness.

On the Temperature, you can see the DFW Heat Island

We could careless if Northern tx gets snow or not lol we are more focused down here on the houston area

Posted: **Mon Nov 29, 2021 12:43 pm**

12z GEFS has a large percentage of Ensemble Members showing more snow in the Southern Plains starting at +318 hours, which is unusual.

Posted: **Mon Nov 29, 2021 1:19 pm**

Kingwood36 wrote: ↑Mon Nov 29, 2021 11:22 am
Iceresistance wrote: ↑Mon Nov 29, 2021 11:08 am 12z GFS tries to have snow in Oklahoma & parts of Northern Texas, but there is too much dryness.

On the Temperature, you can see the DFW Heat Island
We could careless if Northern tx gets snow or not lol we are more focused down here on the houston area

During the winter, what happens up there usually influences our weather down here.

Posted: **Mon Nov 29, 2021 3:21 pm**

Well well well, that may happen, there is model consistency for a Stratwarm, Joe B is showing the difference between now & 10 days out

https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/stat ... gr%5Etweet

Posted: **Mon Nov 29, 2021 3:24 pm**

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5ynFLZNI0TY
Pow this morning video

Posted: **Mon Nov 29, 2021 6:00 pm**

18z GEFS has a stronger snowfall signal for most of Texas by Day 10

Posted: **Mon Nov 29, 2021 6:04 pm**

Iceresistance what are you seeing? I dont see that on the GEFS

Posted: **Mon Nov 29, 2021 6:16 pm**

Stratton20 wrote: ↑Mon Nov 29, 2021 6:04 pm Iceresistance what are you seeing? I dont see that on the GEFS

Mean Snowfall has increased for most of Texas, Member #3 has a LOT of snow for most of Texas

Where I got the model: https://weather.cod.edu/forecast/

Posted: **Mon Nov 29, 2021 6:59 pm**

Iceresistance those members are only showing snow for the panhandle lol

Posted: **Mon Nov 29, 2021 7:09 pm**

Stratton20 wrote: ↑Mon Nov 29, 2021 6:59 pm Iceresistance those members are only showing snow for the panhandle lol

Did you not see Member #3?

Posted: **Mon Nov 29, 2021 7:19 pm**

Iceresistance wrote: ↑Mon Nov 29, 2021 7:09 pm
Stratton20 wrote: ↑Mon Nov 29, 2021 6:59 pm Iceresistance those members are only showing snow for the panhandle lol
Did you not see Member #3?

Ya member 3 had snow all over texas..but take it with a grain of salt

Posted: **Mon Nov 29, 2021 7:26 pm**

Kingwood36 wrote: ↑Mon Nov 29, 2021 7:19 pm
Iceresistance wrote: ↑Mon Nov 29, 2021 7:09 pm
Stratton20 wrote: ↑Mon Nov 29, 2021 6:59 pm Iceresistance those members are only showing snow for the panhandle lol
Did you not see Member #3?
Ya member 3 had snow all over texas..but take it with a grain of salt

I don't trust it either, but more of the Ensembles are showing snow for Texas compared to the last several runs, they are noticing the StratWarm

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