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Re: December 2021
Posted: Mon Nov 29, 2021 1:19 pm
by Cpv17
Kingwood36 wrote: ↑Mon Nov 29, 2021 11:22 am
Iceresistance wrote: ↑Mon Nov 29, 2021 11:08 am
12z GFS tries to have snow in Oklahoma & parts of Northern Texas, but there is too much dryness.
On the Temperature, you can see the DFW Heat Island
We could careless if Northern tx gets snow or not lol we are more focused down here on the houston area
During the winter, what happens up there usually influences our weather down here.
Re: December 2021
Posted: Mon Nov 29, 2021 3:21 pm
by Iceresistance
Well well well, that may happen, there is model consistency for a Stratwarm, Joe B is showing the difference between now & 10 days out
https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/stat ... gr%5Etweet
Re: December 2021
Posted: Mon Nov 29, 2021 3:24 pm
by sambucol
Re: December 2021
Posted: Mon Nov 29, 2021 6:00 pm
by Iceresistance
18z GEFS has a stronger snowfall signal for most of Texas by Day 10
Re: December 2021
Posted: Mon Nov 29, 2021 6:04 pm
by Stratton20
Iceresistance what are you seeing? I dont see that on the GEFS
Re: December 2021
Posted: Mon Nov 29, 2021 6:16 pm
by Iceresistance
Stratton20 wrote: ↑Mon Nov 29, 2021 6:04 pm
Iceresistance what are you seeing? I dont see that on the GEFS
Mean Snowfall has increased for most of Texas, Member #3 has a LOT of snow for most of Texas
Where I got the model:
https://weather.cod.edu/forecast/
Re: December 2021
Posted: Mon Nov 29, 2021 6:59 pm
by Stratton20
Iceresistance those members are only showing snow for the panhandle lol
Re: December 2021
Posted: Mon Nov 29, 2021 7:09 pm
by Iceresistance
Stratton20 wrote: ↑Mon Nov 29, 2021 6:59 pm
Iceresistance those members are only showing snow for the panhandle lol
Did you not see Member #3?
Re: December 2021
Posted: Mon Nov 29, 2021 7:19 pm
by Kingwood36
Iceresistance wrote: ↑Mon Nov 29, 2021 7:09 pm
Stratton20 wrote: ↑Mon Nov 29, 2021 6:59 pm
Iceresistance those members are only showing snow for the panhandle lol
Did you not see Member #3?
Ya member 3 had snow all over texas..but take it with a grain of salt
Re: December 2021
Posted: Mon Nov 29, 2021 7:26 pm
by Iceresistance
Kingwood36 wrote: ↑Mon Nov 29, 2021 7:19 pm
Iceresistance wrote: ↑Mon Nov 29, 2021 7:09 pm
Stratton20 wrote: ↑Mon Nov 29, 2021 6:59 pm
Iceresistance those members are only showing snow for the panhandle lol
Did you not see Member #3?
Ya member 3 had snow all over texas..but take it with a grain of salt
I don't trust it either, but more of the Ensembles are showing snow for Texas compared to the last several runs, they are noticing the StratWarm
Re: December 2021
Posted: Mon Nov 29, 2021 7:28 pm
by Stratton20
Iceresistance ah haha I see it now just didnt go out far enough in time, that would be amazing, unfortunately its just one member though
Re: December 2021
Posted: Tue Nov 30, 2021 11:36 am
by Iceresistance
12z GEFS has a strong snowfall signal for Oklahoma next week
Re: December 2021
Posted: Tue Nov 30, 2021 12:20 pm
by Stratton20
meh that doesnt mean much for Texas, the GFS has completely dropped any arctic air in the entirety of its run, im growing pessimistic that this winter is going to be a bust lol
Re: December 2021
Posted: Tue Nov 30, 2021 12:27 pm
by Kingwood36
Not really lol
Re: December 2021
Posted: Tue Nov 30, 2021 12:43 pm
by Iceresistance
Stratton20 wrote: ↑Tue Nov 30, 2021 12:20 pm
meh that doesnt mean much for Texas, the GFS has completely dropped any arctic air in the entirety of its run, im growing pessimistic that this winter is going to be a bust lol
I'd trust the Ensembles more than that Operational since one Ensemble member is basically a model run in itself, the GEFS & GFS are in conflict with each other once again.
Re: December 2021
Posted: Tue Nov 30, 2021 1:50 pm
by sambucol
Re: December 2021
Posted: Tue Nov 30, 2021 2:23 pm
by MontgomeryCoWx
It’s getting hard to come to this site. Less discussion and more bleeding all over the board.
Winter starts tomorrow. It will probably be like a traditional Niña where roller coaster temps happen. I’d put the over/under on good cold snaps at 2.5. Id put the over/under on freezes (for my place) at 14.5.
3/4 of you hug models too much instead of employ common sense. It was the same at the beginning of last winter and the one before that and so on.
We have been losing the good posters (or at least frequency of posts from good ones) around here because of the ones who make blanket statements with no backing.
Y’all enjoy the Holidays.
Re: December 2021
Posted: Tue Nov 30, 2021 2:29 pm
by Stratton20
Iceresistance I hope so because none of the operational models are showing anything in terms of a cooldown anytime soon
Re: December 2021
Posted: Tue Nov 30, 2021 2:47 pm
by TXWeatherMan
MontgomeryCoWx wrote: ↑Tue Nov 30, 2021 2:23 pm
It’s getting hard to come to this site. Less discussion and more bleeding all over the board.
Winter starts tomorrow. It will probably be like a traditional Niña where roller coaster temps happen. I’d put the over/under on good cold snaps at 2.5. Id put the over/under on freezes (for my place) at 14.5.
3/4 of you hug models too much instead of employ common sense. It was the same at the beginning of last winter and the one before that and so on.
We have been losing the good posters (or at least frequency of posts from good ones) around here because of the ones who make blanket statements with no backing.
Y’all enjoy the Holidays.
I agree with you completely
Re: December 2021
Posted: Tue Nov 30, 2021 3:01 pm
by Iceresistance
Stratton20 wrote: ↑Tue Nov 30, 2021 2:29 pm
Iceresistance I hope so because none of the operational models are showing anything in terms of a cooldown anytime soon
Yes, with the 12z GEFS having a stronger snowfall signal for next week across the Southern Plains, (Yes, it's within 10 days) we should never give up hope, & since the GEFS is more trusted than the GFS, there is a chance.
And also, Nyatoh could do something with our weather in the next several days.
