Re: December 2021
Posted: Mon Nov 29, 2021 7:28 pm
Iceresistance ah haha I see it now just didnt go out far enough in time, that would be amazing, unfortunately its just one member though
Page 10 of 19
Re: December 2021
Posted: Tue Nov 30, 2021 11:36 am
12z GEFS has a strong snowfall signal for Oklahoma next week
Re: December 2021
Posted: Tue Nov 30, 2021 12:20 pm
meh that doesnt mean much for Texas, the GFS has completely dropped any arctic air in the entirety of its run, im growing pessimistic that this winter is going to be a bust lol
Re: December 2021
Posted: Tue Nov 30, 2021 12:27 pm
Not really lol
Re: December 2021
Posted: Tue Nov 30, 2021 12:43 pm
I'd trust the Ensembles more than that Operational since one Ensemble member is basically a model run in itself, the GEFS & GFS are in conflict with each other once again.Stratton20 wrote: ↑Tue Nov 30, 2021 12:20 pm meh that doesnt mean much for Texas, the GFS has completely dropped any arctic air in the entirety of its run, im growing pessimistic that this winter is going to be a bust lol
Re: December 2021
Posted: Tue Nov 30, 2021 2:23 pm
It’s getting hard to come to this site. Less discussion and more bleeding all over the board.
Winter starts tomorrow. It will probably be like a traditional Niña where roller coaster temps happen. I’d put the over/under on good cold snaps at 2.5. Id put the over/under on freezes (for my place) at 14.5.
3/4 of you hug models too much instead of employ common sense. It was the same at the beginning of last winter and the one before that and so on.
We have been losing the good posters (or at least frequency of posts from good ones) around here because of the ones who make blanket statements with no backing.
Y’all enjoy the Holidays.
Winter starts tomorrow. It will probably be like a traditional Niña where roller coaster temps happen. I’d put the over/under on good cold snaps at 2.5. Id put the over/under on freezes (for my place) at 14.5.
3/4 of you hug models too much instead of employ common sense. It was the same at the beginning of last winter and the one before that and so on.
We have been losing the good posters (or at least frequency of posts from good ones) around here because of the ones who make blanket statements with no backing.
Y’all enjoy the Holidays.
Re: December 2021
Posted: Tue Nov 30, 2021 2:29 pm
Iceresistance I hope so because none of the operational models are showing anything in terms of a cooldown anytime soon
Re: December 2021
Posted: Tue Nov 30, 2021 2:47 pm
I agree with you completelyMontgomeryCoWx wrote: ↑Tue Nov 30, 2021 2:23 pm It’s getting hard to come to this site. Less discussion and more bleeding all over the board.
Winter starts tomorrow. It will probably be like a traditional Niña where roller coaster temps happen. I’d put the over/under on good cold snaps at 2.5. Id put the over/under on freezes (for my place) at 14.5.
3/4 of you hug models too much instead of employ common sense. It was the same at the beginning of last winter and the one before that and so on.
We have been losing the good posters (or at least frequency of posts from good ones) around here because of the ones who make blanket statements with no backing.
Y’all enjoy the Holidays.
Re: December 2021
Posted: Tue Nov 30, 2021 3:01 pm
Yes, with the 12z GEFS having a stronger snowfall signal for next week across the Southern Plains, (Yes, it's within 10 days) we should never give up hope, & since the GEFS is more trusted than the GFS, there is a chance.Stratton20 wrote: ↑Tue Nov 30, 2021 2:29 pm Iceresistance I hope so because none of the operational models are showing anything in terms of a cooldown anytime soon
And also, Nyatoh could do something with our weather in the next several days.
Re: December 2021
Posted: Tue Nov 30, 2021 4:33 pm
If I didn't know better, 20 pages into a thread in which the month hasn't even started yet, I'd think there would be an incoming blizzard later this week.
We all need to remember, models are just one tool in a very large toolbox. This forum wouldn't be where it is today without the many great dialogues from members, present or past. Limiting conversation and discussion about models isn't what this forum is about. But perhaps we look at creating a separate thread of the meteorological seasons (similar to s2k) where all members - whether local or afar - can join and continue discussing model-to-model runs without it clouding up our monthly discussions that really pertain here more locally.
I'm open to thoughts, but the purpose of this forum is to allow these conversations, but in ways where it can benefit everyone.
With that said, between the GFS and EPS model runs over the last 48 hours should be a huge red flag not to put any trust in one model right now. La Nina winters are typically above average down here with the exception of a few strong dips, including what we saw last February. Having any expectation that we'll repeat Feb '21 or previous historic winters just aren't probable year in and year out.
We all need to remember, models are just one tool in a very large toolbox. This forum wouldn't be where it is today without the many great dialogues from members, present or past. Limiting conversation and discussion about models isn't what this forum is about. But perhaps we look at creating a separate thread of the meteorological seasons (similar to s2k) where all members - whether local or afar - can join and continue discussing model-to-model runs without it clouding up our monthly discussions that really pertain here more locally.
I'm open to thoughts, but the purpose of this forum is to allow these conversations, but in ways where it can benefit everyone.
With that said, between the GFS and EPS model runs over the last 48 hours should be a huge red flag not to put any trust in one model right now. La Nina winters are typically above average down here with the exception of a few strong dips, including what we saw last February. Having any expectation that we'll repeat Feb '21 or previous historic winters just aren't probable year in and year out.
Re: December 2021
Posted: Tue Nov 30, 2021 4:59 pm
Belmer I think creating a separate thread for that reason is an excellent idea, i definitely am glued to the models run by run lol, but I definitely agree with this idea
Re: December 2021
Posted: Tue Nov 30, 2021 5:03 pm
Belmer wrote: ↑Tue Nov 30, 2021 4:33 pm If I didn't know better, 20 pages into a thread in which the month hasn't even started yet, I'd think there would be an incoming blizzard later this week.
We all need to remember, models are just one tool in a very large toolbox. This forum wouldn't be where it is today without the many great dialogues from members, present or past. Limiting conversation and discussion about models isn't what this forum is about. But perhaps we look at creating a separate thread of the meteorological seasons (similar to s2k) where all members - whether local or afar - can join and continue discussing model-to-model runs without it clouding up our monthly discussions that really pertain here more locally.
I'm open to thoughts, but the purpose of this forum is to allow these conversations, but in ways where it can benefit everyone.
With that said, between the GFS and EPS model runs over the last 48 hours should be a huge red flag not to put any trust in one model right now. La Nina winters are typically above average down here with the exception of a few strong dips, including what we saw last February. Having any expectation that we'll repeat Feb '21 or previous historic winters just aren't probable year in and year out.
I can also confirm that the Ensembles are in conflict with the main models as well (GFS & GEFS for example)
And yes, we can do a 2021 or 2022 Model runs discussion
Right now, can't do a Oklahoma forum, I'm the only active Oklahoma member here.
Re: December 2021
Posted: Tue Nov 30, 2021 7:37 pm
I’m not gonna worry too much about the cold for now. I don’t really see anything that suggests it’s going to get cold anytime soon. However, we might begin to see more rain chances if the GFS verifies. The Euro is just plain jane boring!
Re: December 2021
Posted: Tue Nov 30, 2021 9:30 pm
A lot of people aren’t as knowledgeable as you are to back their statements up though. A lot of youngins on here. I feel we should be teaching them everything we know instead of criticizing them. I myself still have a lot to learn. Big reason why I miss srain. I love learning as much as I can and then sharing my knowledge with others.MontgomeryCoWx wrote: ↑Tue Nov 30, 2021 2:23 pm It’s getting hard to come to this site. Less discussion and more bleeding all over the board.
Winter starts tomorrow. It will probably be like a traditional Niña where roller coaster temps happen. I’d put the over/under on good cold snaps at 2.5. Id put the over/under on freezes (for my place) at 14.5.
3/4 of you hug models too much instead of employ common sense. It was the same at the beginning of last winter and the one before that and so on.
We have been losing the good posters (or at least frequency of posts from good ones) around here because of the ones who make blanket statements with no backing.
Y’all enjoy the Holidays.
Re: December 2021
Posted: Wed Dec 01, 2021 7:09 am
6z GFS is showing a Stratwarm that dirsrupts the PV (Which could stretch itself for a cold wave around Christmas Week to New Years)
Re: December 2021
Posted: Wed Dec 01, 2021 9:40 am
Welcome to the first day of the meteorological winter. Enjoy, cold weather lovers. I hope it stays above 25 degrees this season. My countdown to Spring begins now.
Re: December 2021
Posted: Wed Dec 01, 2021 12:07 pm
can winter actually be over before it starts?? lol
Re: December 2021
Posted: Wed Dec 01, 2021 12:12 pm
Looks like some pool weather here in CS the next 5-7 days lol
Re: December 2021
Posted: Wed Dec 01, 2021 12:54 pm
Going as expected. Dry and warm in the first half of Dec. La Nina winters can have those occasional blue norther. Late December is often good timing. The good news is that a typical La Nina features more sunshine. Always be prepared for the occasional La Nina surprise.