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Texas only gets a glancing blow from the December Polar Vortex in the 18z GFS, but this is previewing what may happen this coming February . . .

Glancing blows are getter then nothing I suppose

im not sold on a goancing blow or a direct hit from the cold air yet, probably wont know that answer for another 8-9 days

0z GFS is still on a Glancing blow for Texas, but it has trended slightly southward again . . .

Iceresistance meh the GFS doesn’t show much of a cooldown at all, I think the model is really struggling to pick up on how much cold air is up in the source region right now

Stratton20 wrote: ↑Fri Nov 26, 2021 11:41 pm Iceresistance meh the GFS doesn’t show much of a cooldown at all, I think the model is really struggling to pick up on how much cold air is up in the source region right now

Likely underestimating/overestimating the cold air in the source region?

Iceresistance yes, because it literally has little to no cooldown for us anymore in the long range, but we will see, seems like cold arctic air always gives the models fits

I’m not going to get too excited or believe anything till it’s within 5 days. Anything past that is a crapshoot. The cold pool of water south of Alaska could be a big detriment towards our winter this season. We really need that area to warm up. Hard to get cold air down here with below average SST’s in that region.

CPV17 well lets hope those sea temps warm up soon, definitely dont want a repeat from winter a few years back where christmas was in the low 80’s in SE Texas

Stratton20 wrote: ↑Fri Nov 26, 2021 11:54 pm CPV17 well lets hope those sea temps warm up soon, definitely dont want a repeat from winter a few years back where christmas was in the low 80’s in SE Texas

I once had a streak from 2016-2019 when there was a Thunderstorm on Christmas Day or Eve in Springfield, MO when I was with my Great-Grandparents.

Iceresistance wow! Now I personally wouldn’t mind a thunderstorm on christmas, beats warm temps any day

Anyone getting rain? Radar is green but nothing but 2 or 3 sprinkles here

12z GFS delayed the cold BIG time!

Iceresistance wrote: ↑Sat Nov 27, 2021 10:43 am 12z GFS delayed the cold BIG time!

To when?

Kingwood36 wrote: ↑Sat Nov 27, 2021 10:47 am

Iceresistance wrote: ↑Sat Nov 27, 2021 10:43 am 12z GFS delayed the cold BIG time!

To when?

First full week of December

Iceresistance wrote: ↑Sat Nov 27, 2021 10:48 am

Kingwood36 wrote: ↑Sat Nov 27, 2021 10:47 am

Iceresistance wrote: ↑Sat Nov 27, 2021 10:43 am 12z GFS delayed the cold BIG time!

To when?

First full week of December

So 5th through the 11th?

Kingwood36 wrote: ↑Sat Nov 27, 2021 10:49 am

Iceresistance wrote: ↑Sat Nov 27, 2021 10:48 am

Kingwood36 wrote: ↑Sat Nov 27, 2021 10:47 am

To when?

First full week of December

So 5th through the 11th?

Yes, it's much more delayed compared to the 6z Run

So the 6z run was for this coming week right?

Kingwood36 wrote: ↑Sat Nov 27, 2021 10:52 am So the 6z run was for this coming week right?

The 6z had a glancing blow for Next Weekend

The 12z run had it delayed for a further 1-3 Days

Iceresistance wrote: ↑Sat Nov 27, 2021 10:55 am

Kingwood36 wrote: ↑Sat Nov 27, 2021 10:52 am So the 6z run was for this coming week right?

The 6z had a glancing blow for Next Weekend

The 12z run had it delayed for a further 1-3 Days

Does the 12z show it still as a glancing blow?