August Weather Discussion

[Mr. T]

Luckily, I don't think the 100 degree heat will last too long. The GFS, its ensembles, and the Euro all agree on weakening the ridge a bit and sliding it a ways north of the region. This should allow for temperatures to fall back to a more normal summertime heat with some rain chances returning to the area by the end of next week thanks to the Gulf opening back up a bit.

A few days of 100 degree heat at this point of the season is certainly nothing unusual. Hopefully models are correct and this hot and dry pattern is only temporary!

Yeah, it wasn't temporary

[Ptarmigan]

Code: Select all

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
423 AM CDT SUN AUG 22 2010

...HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS THROUGH
MONDAY...

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-222200-
/O.EXT.KHGX.HT.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-100824T0000Z/
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-BRAZOS-BURLESON-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-
GALVESTON-GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-JACKSON-LIBERTY-MADISON-MATAGORDA-
MONTGOMERY-POLK-SAN JACINTO-TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON-
WHARTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ALVIN...ANAHUAC...ANGLETON...BAY CITY...
BELLVILLE...BRENHAM...BROOKSHIRE...BRYAN...CALDWELL...CLEVELAND...
COLDSPRING...COLLEGE STATION...COLUMBUS...CONROE...CORRIGAN...
CROCKETT...DAYTON...EAGLE LAKE...EDNA...EL CAMPO...FREEPORT...
FRIENDSWOOD...GALVESTON...GROVETON...HEMPSTEAD...HOUSTON...
HUMBLE...HUNTSVILLE...KATY...LAKE JACKSON...LAKE SOMERVILLE...
LEAGUE CITY...LIBERTY...LIVINGSTON...MADISONVILLE...
MISSOURI CITY...MONT BELVIEU...NAVASOTA...ONALASKA...PALACIOS...
PASADENA...PEARLAND...PIERCE...PRAIRIE VIEW...RICHMOND...
ROSENBERG...SEALY...SHEPHERD...SUGAR LAND...TEXAS CITY...
THE WOODLANDS...TOMBALL...TRINITY...WEIMAR...WHARTON...WILLIS...
WINNIE
423 AM CDT SUN AUG 22 2010

...HEAT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT MONDAY...

THE HEAT ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT MONDAY.

VERY HOT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY AND MONDAY AS
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS PARKED OVER TEXAS.
DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 98 TO 104 DEGREES
INLAND...MID 90S ALONG THE COAST. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
ONLY DROP INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S. THE COMBINATION OF THE
HEAT AND HIGH HUMIDITY WILL RESULT IN MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX VALUES OF
105 TO 110 DEGREES EACH AFTERNOON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU PLAN TO BE OUTSIDE...AVOID PROLONGED EXPOSURE OR STRENUOUS
PHYSICAL ACTIVITY. YOUR BODY CAN LOSE UP TO A GALLON OF WATER AN
HOUR THROUGH PERSPIRATION. DRINK PLENTY OF FLUIDS TO AVOID
DEHYDRATION. ALCOHOLIC AND CAFFEINATED BEVERAGES CAN INCREASE THE
RATE OF WATER LOSS IN YOUR BODY...INCREASING THE RISK OF HEAT
EXHAUSTION OR STROKE. WEAR LIGHTWEIGHT...LIGHT-COLORED...LOOSE-
FITTING CLOTHING. WEAR A HAT TO SHIELD YOURSELF FROM THE SUN...
AND USE A SUNSCREEN TO REDUCE POSSIBLE SUNBURN.

HEAT KILLS. CHILDREN AND PETS SHOULD NEVER BE LEFT UNATTENDED IN
VEHICLES UNDER ANY CIRCUMSTANCES. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE DURING
WARM OR HOT WEATHER WHEN CAR INTERIORS CAN REACH LETHAL
TEMPERATURES IN A MATTER OF MINUTES.

&&

$$

http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwat ... 20advisory

It is going be hot again.

[Ptarmigan]

There were 6 days in August 2009 that reached 100F degrees. So far, just 2 days reached 100F degrees. These are at KIAH, which is the official data for Houston. Yes, I know it is an airport and I wished they still used Houston WB, which is in downtown.

Average August So Far To Date (Lo/Hi):
88.25

Average August So Far To Date In 2009 (Lo/Hi):
87.07

Average August In 2009 (Lo/Hi):
86.2

Believe it or not, we are warmer than last August at this time last year. I did notice that the low temperatures are warmer, which explain why this August is warmer than last August. Night is much warmer to a point it is just as hot in the day time. August 2009 was the 7th warmest August on record. I think we could be challenging it. Summer of 2009 was very hot, one of the hottest on record.

Rainfall To Date:
0.32

Rainfall To Date Last Year
1.59

We are much drier than last August. We had more rain last August and we were gripped by a severe drought.

[unome]

HGX has an interesting page on the Aug '10 heatwave: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/hgx/?n=pns_2010 ... 0_heatwave

[texoz]

SOUTHEAST TEXAS HAS HAD FEWER 100 DEGREE DAYS THAN LAST YEAR BUT
DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES HAVE STILL BEEN ABOVE NORMAL. IN A
TYPICAL AUGUST (AND REALLY WHAT IS TYPICAL ANYMORE?)...HOUSTON
INTERCONTINENTAL AIRPORT RECORDS TWO DAYS WITH TEMPERATURES AT OR
ABOVE 100 DEGREES. COLLEGE STATION RECORDS 5 DAYS WITH
TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE 100 DEGREES AND HOBBY AIRPORT TYPICALLY
RECORDS ONE DAY DURING THE MONTH WITH A HIGH TEMPERATURE AT OR
ABOVE 100 DEGREES.

That part in bold is both funny & disturbing.

[Mr. T]

disturbing.

in what way?

[tjelliot]

I have a gneral question for our weather gurus. As I was growing up my friend's grandmother used to wait for the first night in late summer when the LOW temperature was in the 60's. She would then say "that the back of summer is broken". I remember those days happening in last August or early September. Do any of our gurus know-or can research-what is the average date for Houston to first get a low in the 60's in the fall. I know on the forum we have talked about the 50's, but i'd like to know about the 60's.

[srainhoutx]

Some hope regarding rainfall chances and maybe some stronger storms as well...


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1002 AM CDT MON AUG 23 2010

.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER WARM START TO THE DAY WITH MIN TEMPS ONLY FALLING INTO THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. THE WARM START COUPLED WITH ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE THIS MORNING SHOULD YIELD MAX TEMPS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE 100 DEGREES INLAND...MID 90S COAST. DESPITE SOME MIXING AND
SLIGHTLY LOWER SFC DEW PTS...FEEL HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL EXCEED
105 DEGREES SO HEAT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT. A WEAK
BOUNDARY OVER EAST TEXAS WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON AND
EVENING CONVECTION. 12Z SOUNDINGS SHOW PW VALUES AROUND 2.2 INCHES
AND THIS MATCHES UP WELL WITH SATELLITE DERIVED VALUES. HAVE
RAISED POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON/EVENING AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS LOOK
RATHER ROBUST. CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE BETWEEN 96-98 DEGREES SO
CONVECTION SHOULD START LATE. FEEL POTENTIAL IS ALSO GROWING FOR
STRONG STORMS AS CAPE VALUES EXCEED 4000 AND INVERTED V SIGNATURE
SUPPORT DOWNBURST WINDS. WILL EVALUATE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON ONCE THE
12Z GFS ARRIVES. 12Z NAM AND RUC SUPPORT GREATER AREAL COVERAGE
THIS EVENING AS WELL. NEW ZONES OUT BY 1030 AM. 43/MB

[sleetstorm]

We are only thirty days away from the first official day of Autumn if that is any comfort to any of you.

[tireman4]

August Normals:

23 93 73
24 93 72
25 93 72

26 93 72
27 93 72
28 92 72
29 92 72
30 92 72

31 92 72

..As you can see we are WAY above them.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/hgx/?n=climate_iah_normals_aug

[weatherguy425]

HGX seems to be the bearer of GOOD news this afternoon!

A WEAK BOUNDARY OVER EAST TEXAS...A DEVELOPING SEA BREEZE COUPLED
WITH PW VALUES AROUND 2.2 INCHES AND TEMPERATURES NEAR 100 DEGREES
WILL ALLOW FOR SCATTERED STORMS TO DEVELOP AND LINGER THROUGH THE
EVENING. AN INVERTED V SIGNATURE SUGGESTS THAT THE STRONGER STORMS
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE WIND DAMAGE. CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
CONTINUES TO FIGHT SUBSIDENCE FROM THE EVER-PRESENT UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE. HAVE 30 POPS FOR NOW AND THINK LOW END CHANCE WILL COVER
IT. DESPITE LIMITED COVERAGE...AM STILL RATHER CONCERNED ABOUT
SEVERE POTENTIAL AND MAY ADD SEVERE WORDING TO THE ZFP.

HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE MORE CONSISTENT GFS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK
AND WEEKEND. BY THURSDAY...THE GFS DEVELOPS AN INVERTED SURFACE
TROUGH AND A WEAK 500 MB LOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF. THESE FEATURES
WILL INCH TOWARD THE COAST ON FRIDAY BRINGING CLOUDS...COOLER
TEMPS AND PRECIPITATION. THE INVERTED SFC TROUGH WILL MOVE INLAND
ON SATURDAY BRINGING THE AREA A GOOD CHANCE OF PRECIP AND THE BEST
CHANCE OF RAIN THIS AREA HAS SEEN IN ALMOST 4 WEEKS. SPEED AND
DIRECTIONAL SURFACE WIND CONVERGENCE COUPLED WITH PW VALUES
AROUND 2.4-2.5 INCHES SUGGEST THAT SOME DECENT RAINFALL TOTALS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE COAST. 12Z ECMWF NOW
SUPPORTS THE 12Z GFS SO CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE ON THE RISE. 43

[srainhoutx]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
442 PM CDT MON AUG 23 2010

TXZ213-227-237-238-232230-
BRAZORIA-FORT BEND-GALVESTON-HARRIS-
442 PM CDT MON AUG 23 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

AT 440 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR FRIENDSWOOD...MOVING SOUTH AT 15 MPH.

WINDS UP TO 50 MPH...BRIEF MODERATE DOWNPOURS...ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

OTHER STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER THE AREA TO THE WEST OF
FRIENDSWOOD AND WILL BE CAPABLE OF STRONG GUSTY WINDS.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...ROSHARON...JULIFF...
CHOCOLATE BAYOU...WEBSTER...SANTA FE...PEARLAND...NASSAU BAY...
MANVEL...LIVERPOOL...LEAGUE CITY...IOWA COLONY...HILLCREST...
FRIENDSWOOD...FRESNO...BONNEY...ARCOLA AND ALVIN.

[svrwx0503]

Getting ready to see an outflow boundary collision occur from north-central back across west and southwest portions of Harris county. Watch out for the possibility of some additional strong thunderstorm activity across the northern, central and west/southwestern portions of the metro area over the next 1-2 hours. Some of thunderstorms have been producing some pretty strong winds with Hooks airport reporting a gust to 45mph in the last hour.

[svrwx0503]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
519 PM CDT MON AUG 23 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
EASTERN FORT BEND COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
SOUTHERN HARRIS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 545 PM CDT

* AT 518 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM MEADOWS TO STAFFORD TO MISSOURI CITY...OR ALONG
A LINE EXTENDING FROM BELLAIRE TO STAFFORD TO MISSOURI CITY...AND
MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 10 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT
LIMITED TO TOWN WEST...SUGAR LAND...FRESNO AND FIRST COLONY.

PLEASE REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE COUNTY SHERIFF...LOCAL POLICE...
OR DEPARTMENT OF PUBLIC SAFETY AND ASK THEM TO RELAY YOUR REPORT TO
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

[svrwx0503]

Radar currently indicating some 30-40mph winds possible with the thunderstorm over the US 290 and W43rd area moving south towards Spring Valley and the memorial villages. It looks like the western and southwestern portion of the metro area and Harris county is in for some potentially rough weather over the next hour or so.

[svrwx0503]

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
527 PM CDT MON AUG 23 2010

TXC157-201-232245-
/O.CON.KHGX.SV.W.0063.000000T0000Z-100823T2245Z/
HARRIS TX-FORT BEND TX-
527 PM CDT MON AUG 23 2010

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 545 PM CDT
FOR FORT BEND AND HARRIS COUNTIES...

AT 525 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH NEAR STAFFORD AND SUGARLAND. THESE STORMS WERE
LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM MEADOWS TO STAFFORD TO MISSOURI
CITY...AND MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 10 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT
LIMITED TO TOWN WEST...THOMPSONS...SUGAR LAND...FRESNO AND FIRST
COLONY

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

STRONG WINDS MAY KNOCK DOWN TREES AND POWER LINES OR DAMAGE
BUILDINGS. AVOID WINDOWS AND TAKE COVER...NOW!

[svrwx0503]

Pea to quarter sized hail possible around Westheimer and beltway 8.

[svrwx0503]

Radar just updated and now indicates 2.29'' diameter hail around Westheimer and Gessner rd.

[Mr. T]

Getting ready to see an outflow boundary collision occur from north-central back across west and southwest portions of Harris county. Watch out for the possibility of some additional strong thunderstorm activity across the northern, central and west/southwestern portions of the metro area over the next 1-2 hours. Some of thunderstorms have been producing some pretty strong winds with Hooks airport reporting a gust to 45mph in the last hour.

Nice call, dude

Is that you holding a weather balloon in your avatar?

[svrwx0503]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
546 PM CDT MON AUG 23 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN FORT BEND COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
CENTRAL HARRIS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 630 PM CDT

* AT 545 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM BUNKER HILL VILLAGE TO TOWN WEST TO FIRST
COLONY...AND MOVING WEST AT 15 MPH. WIND GUSTS OF 60 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS ALONG WITH PERSISTENT WINDS OF 40 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT
LIMITED TO THE GALLERIA...WEST UNIVERSITY PLACE...SUGAR LAND...
STAFFORD...SOUTHSIDE PLACE...ROSENBERG...RICHMOND...PINEY POINT
VILLAGE...PECAN GROVE...MISSOURI CITY...MISSION BEND...MEADOWS...
HUNTERS CREEK VILLAGE...HOUSTON...HEDWIG VILLAGE AND BELLAIRE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

STRONG WINDS MAY KNOCK DOWN TREES AND POWER LINES OR DAMAGE
BUILDINGS. TAKE COVER NOW!