Wx Infinity Forums

What does next week look like as far as temperatures? Does southeast Texas get a little reprieve from this heat from showers and thunderstorms, whether tropical in nature or not? Or is going to be equally as hot as this week has been so far?

HGX is considering Heat Advisories for tomorrow and Saturday as well...

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
358 AM CDT THU AUG 5 2010

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

.WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE UPPER 90S AND DEWPOINTS IN
THE MIDDLE 70S...HEAT INDEX READINGS IN THE 105-110 RANGE SHOULD
BE COMMON OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. A HEAT ADVISORY
GOES INTO EFFECT WHEN HEAT INDICES OF 108 DEGREES OR HIGHER OCCUR
ON TWO CONSECUTIVE DAYS.

TXZ163-164-176>179-198>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-051700-
/O.CON.KHGX.HT.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-100806T0000Z/
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-GALVESTON-GRIMES-
HARRIS-HOUSTON-JACKSON-LIBERTY-MADISON-MATAGORDA-MONTGOMERY-POLK-
SAN JACINTO-TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-WHARTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ALVIN...ANAHUAC...ANGLETON...BAY CITY...
BELLVILLE...BROOKSHIRE...CLEVELAND...COLDSPRING...COLUMBUS...
CONROE...CORRIGAN...CROCKETT...DAYTON...EAGLE LAKE...EDNA...
EL CAMPO...FREEPORT...FRIENDSWOOD...GALVESTON...GROVETON...
HEMPSTEAD...HOUSTON...HUMBLE...HUNTSVILLE...KATY...LAKE JACKSON...
LEAGUE CITY...LIBERTY...LIVINGSTON...MADISONVILLE...
MISSOURI CITY...MONT BELVIEU...NAVASOTA...ONALASKA...PALACIOS...
PASADENA...PEARLAND...PIERCE...PRAIRIE VIEW...RICHMOND...
ROSENBERG...SEALY...SHEPHERD...SUGAR LAND...TEXAS CITY...
THE WOODLANDS...TOMBALL...TRINITY...WEIMAR...WHARTON...WILLIS...
WINNIE
358 AM CDT THU AUG 5 2010

...HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING...

I'm not sure why there is a heat advisory still in effect. We have not met criteria in most areas as heat index values did not rise to 108 or above today. The only location I see is IAH, and that was only for under an hour

Ok, so why did they just extend the heat advisory? lol

Dewpoints have fallen into the upper 60s to low 70s across the area. The heat index is only 103 right now. What is going on? I thought our criteria was above 107. LCH has dropped the advisories, and I'm not sure why HGX hasn't followed.

We aren't seeing anything unusual right now as far as heat is concerned. And with the increase of cloud cover and chance for rain, temperatures have fallen back down to the mid 90s for highs. That is average for this time of year. This is confusing...

I think someone at HGX forgot what summer is like across SE TX

Way North but it's a start...

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
755 PM CDT FRI AUG 6 2010

TXZ163-176-070200-
HOUSTON-MADISON-
755 PM CDT FRI AUG 6 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

AT 748 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM NEAR CROCKETT TO AUSTONIO TO LOVELADY.
THE STORMS WERE MOVING WEST AT 10 MPH.

WINDS GREATER THAN 40 MPH...BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...AUSTONIO...MIDWAY...
LOVELADY AND CROCKETT.

From NWS Glossary: http://www.weather.gov/glossary/index.php?letter=h

Heat Advisory
Issued within 12 hours of the onset of the following conditions: heat index of at least 105°F but less than 115°F for less than 3 hours per day, or nighttime lows above 80°F for 2 consecutive days.

last advisory posted for Houston: HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL AGAIN REACH THE MID TO UPPER 90S...WITH DEW POINTS REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 70S...RESULTING IN HEAT INDICES IN THE 104-109 RANGE.

Edit to add this: http://www.weather.gov/om/heat/index.shtml there's a lot of good info on heat/hazards there

I notice a upper level low will be moving inland into Texas over th weekends.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/graphicast.php?site=hgx&gc=1

Ptarmigan wrote:I notice an upper level low will be moving inland into Texas over th weekends.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/graphicast.php?site=hgx&gc=1

Sitting right over Corpus Christi. Apparently the upper high is still too strong creating subsidence for the system to provide much precipitation.

The end of the upcoming work week could be rather wet thanks to a possible developing tropical system heading our way. I'm sure discussion will ramp up about this soon in the hurricane forum

The 0z Euro brings the system westward into W LA at the end of the week. The remnants continue chugging westward and overspread SE TX.

unome wrote:From NWS Glossary: http://www.weather.gov/glossary/index.php?letter=h

Heat Advisory
Issued within 12 hours of the onset of the following conditions: heat index of at least 105°F but less than 115°F for less than 3 hours per day, or nighttime lows above 80°F for 2 consecutive days.

btw, that's not HGX criteria. Our criteria is for a heat index of 108 or above. We do not issue excessive heat warnings. Also, we do not have a minimum criteria

wxdata wrote:

Ptarmigan wrote:I notice an upper level low will be moving inland into Texas over th weekends.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/graphicast.php?site=hgx&gc=1

Sitting right over Corpus Christi. Apparently the upper high is still too strong creating subsidence for the system to provide much precipitation.

The cockroach ridge prevails.

Week two of four weeks in August and no tropical threat. Hopefully the weeks will fly by and we will soon have the cool/coldfronts dropping in....sorry if folks want to see tropical activity - I don't.

Need a passing shower on my yard - its getting dry again - but this heat ridge is firmly in place for the next day or two. I'm sure its not going anywhere for at least 6-8 weeks. My A/C and me are best friends this year.

Let's hope the upper system (Invest 94) just brings a break from the heat and some much needed rain!

wxdata wrote:Let's hope the upper system (Invest 94) just brings a break from the heat and some much needed rain!

wxdata I hope this forecast pans out!

Another blistering HOT day...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1003 AM CDT WED AUG 11 2010

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT READINGS BETWEEN 1-3 DEGREES HIGHER THAN THIS SAME TIME
YDAY...SO EXPECT TO SEE TRIPLE DIGIT HIGHS FOR A GOOD PART OF THE
CWA. ONGOING FCST IS ON TRACK AND WILL MAKE VERY MINOR TWEAKS TO
THE GRIDS BASED ON LATEST CONDITIONS. 47

Tropical moisture surge (upper low/inverted trough) moving into SE TX this evening. Hopefully some ‘cooler’ and better rain chances ahead.

Those of you looking for heat relief would love the 0z Euro's solution. It is probably overdone, but the model brings a bonafide August cold front through the area. Not only would it drop dewpoints into the comfortable zone, but overnight lows would dip well into the 60s.

Again, probably overdone, but all global models have been flirting with the idea of a frontal boundary moving into the area next week.

I'm suprised this current heat wave has lasted as long as it has, especially given the pattern during July. I previously noted that I thought this hot and dry pattern wouldn't last for too long as models were hinting at another SE ridge developing, but that hasn't happened.

[quote="Mr. T"]Those of you looking for heat relief would love the 0z Euro's solution. It is probably overdone, but the model brings a bonafide August cold front through the area. Not only would it drop dewpoints into the comfortable zone, but overnight lows would dip well into the 60s.

OH this would be a welcome relief for sure!!!! I will dance in yard and have a party!!! LOL

rnmm wrote: OH this would be a welcome relief for sure!!!! I will dance in yard and have a party!!! LOL

The Euro has since backed off on such an extreme cold front for this time of year, however, models are still going with a pattern change next week that will bring an end to the extreme heat and the beginnings of good rain chances for several days. The NWS states:

BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF ALONG WITH SUPPORT FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN
AND CANADIAN SHOW A CHANGE IN THE PATTERN THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
WHICH BODES WELL FOR INCREASED POPS AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES.
THE UPPER HIGH IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT WEST TOWARD THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST WITH A WEAK TROUGHING DEVELOPING OVER TEXAS AND THE
WESTERN GULF REGION. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF TD 5
SPREAD INTO THE AREA THIS PERIOD WITH PWS INCREASING TO AROUND 2.5
INCHES (PER GFS). WILL FORECAST CHANCE POPS...AND TEMPERATURES
CLOSER TO NORMAL...BEGINNING ON TUESDAY.

The Euro has since backed off on such an extreme cold front for this time of year, however, models are still going with a pattern change next week that will bring an end to the extreme heat and the beginnings of good rain chances for several days. The NWS states:

BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF ALONG WITH SUPPORT FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN
AND CANADIAN SHOW A CHANGE IN THE PATTERN THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
WHICH BODES WELL FOR INCREASED POPS AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES.
THE UPPER HIGH IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT WEST TOWARD THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST WITH A WEAK TROUGHING DEVELOPING OVER TEXAS AND THE
WESTERN GULF REGION. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF TD 5
SPREAD INTO THE AREA THIS PERIOD WITH PWS INCREASING TO AROUND 2.5
INCHES (PER GFS). WILL FORECAST CHANCE POPS...AND TEMPERATURES
CLOSER TO NORMAL...BEGINNING ON TUESDAY.[/quote]

Sorry if I sound like an idiot here, but what are the normal temps for our area for this time of year?