TS Colin

[srainhoutx]

[srainhoutx]

A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED ABOUT 875 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST
OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS MOVING WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 5 TO 10 MPH. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS GRADUALLY
BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION MAY BE FORMING.
IF THIS CURRENT DEVELOPMENT TREND CONTINUES...THEN ADVISORIES ON
THIS DISTURBANCE COULD BE INITIATED AS EARLY AS THIS AFTERNOON OR
EVENING. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[biggerbyte]

There are going to be a few nail biting days ahead. There are solutions being handed out that suggest a Texas problem, eastward all the way out to sea, swimming with the fish. At this point, one is probably as good as the other. This far out, using model guidance only, I just split the difference and say folks in Florida first, then the N. GOM areas second. For all the newbies, watch for trends in any particular model first, then watch to see if all of the models begin to consolidate to one area. The last thing we can usually count on the final day, to three days before landfall, is the models moving right of current forecast. If someone were to insist on asking about the least likely solution, if we could pick one, I'd say anything east/north of the s.e. US coast would be out. That is current thinking anyway. Over time we can get a better idea of who the players will be surrounding this system and bypass the models for a better lock on who would be at most risk. As far as strength goes... Too early to tell, because it depends on what path this system takes, and whether anything gets in it's way later on to slow or prevent development. In the short run, watch out. Out next TD looks to be on order pretty quickly.

[kayci]

There are going to be a few nail biting days ahead. There are solutions being handed out that suggest a Texas problem, eastward all the way out to sea, swimming with the fish. At this point, one is probably as good as the other. This far out, using model guidance only, I just split the difference and say folks in Florida first, then the N. GOM areas second. For all the newbies, watch for trends in any particular model first, then watch to see if all of the models begin to consolidate to one area. The last thing we can usually count on the final day, to three days before landfall, is the models moving right of current forecast. If someone were to insist on asking about the least likely solution, if we could pick one, I'd say anything east/north of the s.e. US coast would be out. That is current thinking anyway. Over time we can get a better idea of who the players will be surrounding this system and bypass the models for a better lock on who would be at most risk. As far as strength goes... Too early to tell, because it depends on what path this system takes, and whether anything gets in it's way later on to slow or prevent development. In the short run, watch out. Out next TD looks to be on order pretty quickly.

Thank you! I really enjoy your posts, they're very informative to us "newbies" who are still learning how to read charts & graphs. Thanks for translating!

[redfish1]

has anyone noticed where the Euro is sending this storm?

[srainhoutx]

Perhaps its just me, but I see two areas that could become a more dominate feature in time. Which one will it be?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-vis.html

[Andrew]

has anyone noticed where the Euro is sending this storm?

Yea the Western gulf... I think it is a little to far out to worry too much about this solution but it is concerning to see some consistency in this model which is so highly viewed.

[redfish1]

that is what i was getting at

[Andrew]

that is what i was getting at

Haha alright then. Well I think once we actually get a depression or tropical storm the models will be more reliable.

[redfish1]

that is what i was getting at

Haha alright then. Well I think once we actually get a depression or tropical storm the models will be more reliable.

i was not trying to be rude i was just agreeing with you....it is something in my opinion we need to keep a close eye on

[srainhoutx]

A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 900 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST
OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION
...BUT DOES NOT APPEAR TO HAVE A WELL-DEFINED SURFACE CENTER.
HOWEVER...CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM AT ANY TIME DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15
MPH. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...90 PERCENT...OF TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[biggerbyte]

This system is really getting it's act together this evening, folks. If this continues, we could have TS status by Monday evening. It may grow very strong, rather quickly. There are some things in the works, maybe, that would knock it back down to something less than a monster. Time will tell. In the meantime, this one is about to man up in the short term. Also, I expect the models to shift west from the current "fishy in the sea" path. I'd put money on their giving too much to idea of this being pulled way north, and the strength and position of the ridge. Everyone from Texas to the Carolinas should pay very close attention.

[biggerbyte]

Well, there is some chatter among some that a trough will dig deep enough to pick this system up and curve it out to sea. So far it continues west. The models are flip flopping, but it is the models in which the chatter is based. Only time will tell if this trough will do as suggested, not to mention what happens with the ridge.

In my opinion, nothing has changed from earlier thinking. I never buy into the models like many do, at least not long range. As we've seen in the past, and using Ike as an example, what seems like a sure bet can turn into something entirely different. Having this system curve out to sea is not set in stone. Not yet, anyway. One thing that we are still watching is how fast will this strengthen. It does not seem quote as bullish this morning as it did on Sunday for rapid strengthening. None the less, there really is not currently anything standing in it's way.

Stay tuned... Today and Tuesday will tell much.

[srainhoutx]

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 1050 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS REMAIN WELL ORGANIZED. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD
FORM AT ANY TIME DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...
90 PERCENT...OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[Scott747]

Just doing some testing. Last four runs of the GFS -

[Scott747]

Sure does look good enough to be upgraded sometime today. First track (model haters beware) with almost unanimous consent looks to be N of the Leewards with a fish like track.

Should get some clarification in the disco. No NOAA mission till the 4th so there could still be plenty of wide adjustments in track over the next few days.

[srainhoutx]

All the talk about rapid intensification has been interesting and probably a bit disappointing for those looking for a stronger system. This is likely a bit of good news for those folks in the Windward & Leeward Islands. With the slower development and a continued WNW motion, I do wonder if a further W track is forthcoming in future guidance output. We will likely be tracking this disturbance for the next 10+ days IMO.

8:00 AM TWD:

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 23N40W TO 13N39W WITH A 1007 MB LOW
NEAR 11N38W. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD HIGH AMPLITUDE
MOISTURE MAXIMUM AS OBSERVED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY AND BROAD HIGH AMPLITUDE CYCLONIC LOW LEVEL CURVATURE
OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG
CONVECTION IS NW OF THE LOW CENTER FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 38W-42W.
THIS BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS FAIRLY WELL ORGANIZED...
HOWEVER SATELLITE MICROWAVE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE LOW DOES
NOT YET HAVE A WELL-DEFINED SURFACE CENTER OF CIRCULATION.
NONETHELESS...CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AND A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM AT ANY TIME DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR SO AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10-15 KT. THERE
IS A HIGH CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS.

[srainhoutx]

HPC:

ANOTHER WRINKLE IN THE FORECAST IS THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE NEAR
12N 41W THIS MORNING...WHICH THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE FLING NEAR
OR OFFSHORE THE EAST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA. NONE OF THE
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE HAS SHOWN MUCH CONTINUITY WITH THIS SYSTEM
FROM DAY TO DAY. THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE WITH THIS FEATURE HAS ALSO
BEEN QUESTIONABLE WITHIN ANY OF ITS 00Z AND 12Z RUNS OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS...THOUGH THE MULTI-DAY WAVERING IS AROUND A TRACK
WHICH MOVES JUST NORTH OF THE GREATER ANTILLES UP THE BAHAMAS AND
OFFSHORE THE FLORIDA COAST. HOWEVER...THERE ARE A FEW ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS WHICH SUPPORT THE ECMWFS ATTEMPT TO RECURVE THIS SYSTEM
OFFSHORE ATLANTIC CANADA IN A WEEK...BUT JUST AS MANY WHICH MOVE
THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND KEYS. THE TROUGH IN THE EAST IS
NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO CAUSE FULL RECURVATURE...AND
THE COL IN THE FLOW PATTERN SHOULD REMAIN TO ITS NORTH...SO
FLORIDA AND THE GULF COAST ARE NOT IN THE CLEAR. THE WEAKNESS
ALOFT TO ITS NORTH SHOULD SLOW ITS FORWARD MOTION AS IT NEARS
FLORIDA AT THE END OF THE PERIOD. DUE TO THIS TRACK EXPECTATION
AND CONTINUITY FROM THE 16Z CALL ON SUNDAY...THE 00Z CANADIAN WAS
USED AS PART OF THE PREFERENCE. THE 00Z ECMWF HAD TO BE DITCHED
FOR THE 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN AS PART OF THE PREFERENCE LATE IN
THE PERIOD DUE TO ITS QUESTIONABLE HANDLING OF THIS TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE. NEEDLESS TO SAY...CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAN AVERAGE
IN THIS ASPECT OF THE FORECAST...AND CHANGES MAY OCCUR DURING THE
16Z COORDINATION CALL WITH NHC TODAY.

[srainhoutx]

000
WTNT34 KNHC 021435
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042010
1100 AM EDT MON AUG 02 2010

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.6N 41.1W
ABOUT 1365 MI...2200 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 41.1 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH...28
KM/HR. A CONTINUED MOTION TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH AN
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...
AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BY TONIGHT OR
TUESDAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[srainhoutx]

000
NOUS42 KNHC 021430
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1030 AM EDT MON 02 AUGUST 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 03/1100Z TO 04/1100Z AUGUST 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-064

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. TROPICAL DEPRRESSION FOUR
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 04/1200,1800Z
B. AFXXX 0104A CYCLONE
C. 04/1000Z
D. 18.4N 57.4W
E. 04/1130Z TO 04/1800Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: FIXES AT 05/0000Z
AND 05/0600Z. BEGIN 12-HRLY FIXES AT 05/1800Z.