TS Colin

[srainhoutx]

A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 900 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST
OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION
...BUT DOES NOT APPEAR TO HAVE A WELL-DEFINED SURFACE CENTER.
HOWEVER...CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM AT ANY TIME DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15
MPH. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...90 PERCENT...OF TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[biggerbyte]

This system is really getting it's act together this evening, folks. If this continues, we could have TS status by Monday evening. It may grow very strong, rather quickly. There are some things in the works, maybe, that would knock it back down to something less than a monster. Time will tell. In the meantime, this one is about to man up in the short term. Also, I expect the models to shift west from the current "fishy in the sea" path. I'd put money on their giving too much to idea of this being pulled way north, and the strength and position of the ridge. Everyone from Texas to the Carolinas should pay very close attention.

[biggerbyte]

Well, there is some chatter among some that a trough will dig deep enough to pick this system up and curve it out to sea. So far it continues west. The models are flip flopping, but it is the models in which the chatter is based. Only time will tell if this trough will do as suggested, not to mention what happens with the ridge.

In my opinion, nothing has changed from earlier thinking. I never buy into the models like many do, at least not long range. As we've seen in the past, and using Ike as an example, what seems like a sure bet can turn into something entirely different. Having this system curve out to sea is not set in stone. Not yet, anyway. One thing that we are still watching is how fast will this strengthen. It does not seem quote as bullish this morning as it did on Sunday for rapid strengthening. None the less, there really is not currently anything standing in it's way.

Stay tuned... Today and Tuesday will tell much.

[srainhoutx]

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 1050 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS REMAIN WELL ORGANIZED. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD
FORM AT ANY TIME DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...
90 PERCENT...OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[Scott747]

Just doing some testing. Last four runs of the GFS -

[Scott747]

Sure does look good enough to be upgraded sometime today. First track (model haters beware) with almost unanimous consent looks to be N of the Leewards with a fish like track.

Should get some clarification in the disco. No NOAA mission till the 4th so there could still be plenty of wide adjustments in track over the next few days.

[srainhoutx]

All the talk about rapid intensification has been interesting and probably a bit disappointing for those looking for a stronger system. This is likely a bit of good news for those folks in the Windward & Leeward Islands. With the slower development and a continued WNW motion, I do wonder if a further W track is forthcoming in future guidance output. We will likely be tracking this disturbance for the next 10+ days IMO.

8:00 AM TWD:

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 23N40W TO 13N39W WITH A 1007 MB LOW
NEAR 11N38W. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD HIGH AMPLITUDE
MOISTURE MAXIMUM AS OBSERVED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY AND BROAD HIGH AMPLITUDE CYCLONIC LOW LEVEL CURVATURE
OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG
CONVECTION IS NW OF THE LOW CENTER FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 38W-42W.
THIS BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS FAIRLY WELL ORGANIZED...
HOWEVER SATELLITE MICROWAVE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE LOW DOES
NOT YET HAVE A WELL-DEFINED SURFACE CENTER OF CIRCULATION.
NONETHELESS...CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AND A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM AT ANY TIME DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR SO AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10-15 KT. THERE
IS A HIGH CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS.

[srainhoutx]

HPC:

ANOTHER WRINKLE IN THE FORECAST IS THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE NEAR
12N 41W THIS MORNING...WHICH THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE FLING NEAR
OR OFFSHORE THE EAST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA. NONE OF THE
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE HAS SHOWN MUCH CONTINUITY WITH THIS SYSTEM
FROM DAY TO DAY. THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE WITH THIS FEATURE HAS ALSO
BEEN QUESTIONABLE WITHIN ANY OF ITS 00Z AND 12Z RUNS OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS...THOUGH THE MULTI-DAY WAVERING IS AROUND A TRACK
WHICH MOVES JUST NORTH OF THE GREATER ANTILLES UP THE BAHAMAS AND
OFFSHORE THE FLORIDA COAST. HOWEVER...THERE ARE A FEW ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS WHICH SUPPORT THE ECMWFS ATTEMPT TO RECURVE THIS SYSTEM
OFFSHORE ATLANTIC CANADA IN A WEEK...BUT JUST AS MANY WHICH MOVE
THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND KEYS. THE TROUGH IN THE EAST IS
NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO CAUSE FULL RECURVATURE...AND
THE COL IN THE FLOW PATTERN SHOULD REMAIN TO ITS NORTH...SO
FLORIDA AND THE GULF COAST ARE NOT IN THE CLEAR. THE WEAKNESS
ALOFT TO ITS NORTH SHOULD SLOW ITS FORWARD MOTION AS IT NEARS
FLORIDA AT THE END OF THE PERIOD. DUE TO THIS TRACK EXPECTATION
AND CONTINUITY FROM THE 16Z CALL ON SUNDAY...THE 00Z CANADIAN WAS
USED AS PART OF THE PREFERENCE. THE 00Z ECMWF HAD TO BE DITCHED
FOR THE 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN AS PART OF THE PREFERENCE LATE IN
THE PERIOD DUE TO ITS QUESTIONABLE HANDLING OF THIS TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE. NEEDLESS TO SAY...CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAN AVERAGE
IN THIS ASPECT OF THE FORECAST...AND CHANGES MAY OCCUR DURING THE
16Z COORDINATION CALL WITH NHC TODAY.

[srainhoutx]

000
WTNT34 KNHC 021435
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042010
1100 AM EDT MON AUG 02 2010

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.6N 41.1W
ABOUT 1365 MI...2200 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 41.1 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH...28
KM/HR. A CONTINUED MOTION TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH AN
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...
AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BY TONIGHT OR
TUESDAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[srainhoutx]

000
NOUS42 KNHC 021430
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1030 AM EDT MON 02 AUGUST 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 03/1100Z TO 04/1100Z AUGUST 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-064

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. TROPICAL DEPRRESSION FOUR
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 04/1200,1800Z
B. AFXXX 0104A CYCLONE
C. 04/1000Z
D. 18.4N 57.4W
E. 04/1130Z TO 04/1800Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: FIXES AT 05/0000Z
AND 05/0600Z. BEGIN 12-HRLY FIXES AT 05/1800Z.

[srainhoutx]

I've seen a heads up about a possible mission on Day 2, but I can't remember ever seeing the POD actually outline a mission for Day 2.

BTW, speaking of a headsup, no G-IV mission ahead of TD #04?

000
NOUS42 KNHC 011530
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1130 AM EDT SUN 01 AUGUST 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 02/1100Z TO 03/1100Z AUGUST 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-063

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: POSSIBLE NOAA G-IV
SURVEILLANCE MISSION OUT OF TISX AROUND CENTRAL
ATLANTIC SYSTEM FOR 04/0000Z IF IT DEVELOPS.

[srainhoutx]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042010
1100 AM EDT MON AUG 02 2010

DATA FROM AN 1148 UTC ASCAT PASS SUGGEST THAT THE DISTURBANCE IN THE
TROPICAL ATLANTIC NOW HAS A WELL-DEFINED SURFACE CIRCULATION...AND
ADVISORIES ARE INITIATED ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS SET AT 30 KT IN AGREEMENT WITH THE ASCAT DATA AND
DVORAK DATA T-NUMBERS OF 2.0 FROM TAFB AND SAB.

THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER APPEARS TO BE LOCATED ON THE SOUTHEASTERN EDGE
OF THE DEEP CONVECTION...AND IS MOVING RATHER BRISKLY TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 15 KT. MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AN
EVEN FASTER MOTION IS LIKELY DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE
DEPRESSION IS STEERED BY A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH.
IN FOUR OR FIVE DAYS...THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A WEAKNESS DEVELOPING
IN THE RIDGE...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST
WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD
IN THE MODELS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...WITH THE GFS ON THE LEFT
SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE SUITE AND THE HWRF AND ECMWF FARTHER RIGHT
SHOWING MORE RECURVATURE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE
MULTI-MODEL TVCN CONSENSUS AND IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GFDL. IT
IS WORTH REMINDING USERS THAT THE AVERAGE ERROR OF THE OFFICIAL
TRACK FORECAST AT DAYS 4 AND 5 IS 250 TO 300 MILES.

THE ENVIRONMENT APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR SOME STRENGTHENING OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT AFTER THAT TIME VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS THE CYCLONE APPROACHES AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH AROUND 65W. THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS THE SHEAR INCREASING TO
AROUND 30 KT BY 72 HOURS...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A PEAK
IN INTENSITY AROUND THAT TIME...IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE ICON
INTENSITY CONSENSUS. IF THE CYCLONE DOES NOT INTENSIFY IN THE NEXT
DAY OR SO...IT COULD STRUGGLE TO MAINTAIN A CLOSED SURFACE
CIRCULATION WITH SUCH A FAST FORWARD SPEED...AND COULD OPEN BACK UP
INTO A TROPICAL WAVE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 02/1500Z 12.6N 41.1W 30 KT
12HR VT 03/0000Z 13.5N 44.0W 35 KT
24HR VT 03/1200Z 14.8N 48.9W 40 KT
36HR VT 04/0000Z 16.4N 53.4W 45 KT
48HR VT 04/1200Z 18.4N 57.4W 50 KT
72HR VT 05/1200Z 22.0N 63.0W 50 KT
96HR VT 06/1200Z 26.0N 66.5W 45 KT
120HR VT 07/1200Z 29.0N 68.5W 45 KT

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[srainhoutx]

I really do not think this will strengthen that quickly.

[rnmm]

Hello all! I have been on vacation for a week and am just now getting a chance to catch up on things. How confident are you guys that this storm will recurve and be a fish?

[biggerbyte]

This could, indeed, turn out to be a fish. It all depends on a couple of factors that are not set in stone. As far as rapid intensification goes.... I don't know of anyone personaly who will be disappointed if it does not become a monster, or if it does, do it quickly. I'd be glad if all the big ones go swim with the fishies. Yesterday looked different from today, as far as strength goes.

Anyway, as with any system, (model lovers beware), it ain't done until the fat lady sings. We had a near duplicate situation with Ike where he was forecasted to go way north and east based on model consensus. I can go back and pull transcripts from all the model runs, and comments from folks who follow them, and show that Ike was a surprise to many. The point here is, things may turn out as suggested today. Then again, they may not. Getting cocky over long range model runs is just silly, if I may be honest.


BB

[rnmm]

Thank you BB. I do not place any confidence in any one model, which is why I follow the forum so closely.

[srainhoutx]

If this TD is going to miss the Islands, a turn to a more WNW heading will need to start fairly soon. At this time it looks like a Westerly motion to me...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-vis.html

[srainhoutx]

I'm waiting for highly paid professional energy sector meteorologist WxMan57 to give his ideas. They're right about 90 or 95% of the time.

He stated Tampico to Iceland yesterday. Too busy dealing with paying customers today I suppose.

[ticka1]

I think the first in line is the folks in the islands that need to be on alert - if TD4 continues its westward track then they will have to deal with either TD or TS. Will it ever affect the CONUS - I don't know the answer but I think TD4 won't be affecting us.

[Scott747]

HPC seems a little miffed that the NHC went with the eastern most track with their final extended forecast of the day. HPC still likes a more westward solution putting NC at risk. I think the NHC went with the more eastern track because of the forward motion expected to increase.

A SIGNIFICANT WRINKLE IN THE FORECAST IS TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR
IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC. THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE
MOVES THIS SYSTEM NEAR OR OFFSHORE THE EAST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA
OVER THE NEXT WEEK. THE 12Z GFS/12Z CANADIAN ARE THE FARTHEST
WEST BRINGING IT TOWARDS FLORIDA IN 6-7 DAYS...WHILE THE 12Z
ECMWF/12Z UKMET ARE WELL TO THE RIGHT TRYING TO RECURVE THE SYSTEM
JUST EAST OF THE 70TH MERIDIAN. THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE WITH THIS
FEATURE HAS ALSO BEEN QUESTIONABLE WITHIN ANY OF ITS 00Z AND 12Z
RUNS OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...THOUGH ITS MULTI-DAY WAVERING
FAVORS THE WESTERN ROUTE MOVING THE LOW JUST NORTH OF THE GREATER
ANTILLES UP THE EAST SIDE OF THE BAHAMA BANK AND OFFSHORE THE
FLORIDA COAST. NHC TOOK THE EASTERN ROUTE AT 15Z WHICH WAS A
SIGNIFICANT BREAK FROM YESTERDAYS 16Z NHC/HPC AGREED UPON POINTS.
SEE NHCS LATEST DISCUSSIONS CONCERNING THEIR FORECAST REASONING.
BEYOND FRIDAY MORNING...THE WEAKENING TROUGH IN THE EAST IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO CAUSE FULL RECURVATURE. THE COL
IN THE FLOW PATTERN SHOULD REMAIN TO ITS NORTH...SO THE AGREED
UPON POINTS FOR LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK TAKE THE
SYSTEM NORTHWEST IN THE GENERAL DIRECTION OF THE CAROLINAS SOUTH
OF THE NORTHWARD MIGRATING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS EXPECTED TO
REACH THE 33RD PARALLEL EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEE THE LATEST FORECASTS
FROM NHC CONCERNING THE FUTURE OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR.