TS Colin

[srainhoutx]

I've seen a heads up about a possible mission on Day 2, but I can't remember ever seeing the POD actually outline a mission for Day 2.

BTW, speaking of a headsup, no G-IV mission ahead of TD #04?

000
NOUS42 KNHC 011530
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1130 AM EDT SUN 01 AUGUST 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 02/1100Z TO 03/1100Z AUGUST 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-063

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: POSSIBLE NOAA G-IV
SURVEILLANCE MISSION OUT OF TISX AROUND CENTRAL
ATLANTIC SYSTEM FOR 04/0000Z IF IT DEVELOPS.

[srainhoutx]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042010
1100 AM EDT MON AUG 02 2010

DATA FROM AN 1148 UTC ASCAT PASS SUGGEST THAT THE DISTURBANCE IN THE
TROPICAL ATLANTIC NOW HAS A WELL-DEFINED SURFACE CIRCULATION...AND
ADVISORIES ARE INITIATED ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS SET AT 30 KT IN AGREEMENT WITH THE ASCAT DATA AND
DVORAK DATA T-NUMBERS OF 2.0 FROM TAFB AND SAB.

THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER APPEARS TO BE LOCATED ON THE SOUTHEASTERN EDGE
OF THE DEEP CONVECTION...AND IS MOVING RATHER BRISKLY TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 15 KT. MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AN
EVEN FASTER MOTION IS LIKELY DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE
DEPRESSION IS STEERED BY A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH.
IN FOUR OR FIVE DAYS...THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A WEAKNESS DEVELOPING
IN THE RIDGE...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST
WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD
IN THE MODELS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...WITH THE GFS ON THE LEFT
SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE SUITE AND THE HWRF AND ECMWF FARTHER RIGHT
SHOWING MORE RECURVATURE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE
MULTI-MODEL TVCN CONSENSUS AND IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GFDL. IT
IS WORTH REMINDING USERS THAT THE AVERAGE ERROR OF THE OFFICIAL
TRACK FORECAST AT DAYS 4 AND 5 IS 250 TO 300 MILES.

THE ENVIRONMENT APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR SOME STRENGTHENING OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT AFTER THAT TIME VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS THE CYCLONE APPROACHES AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH AROUND 65W. THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS THE SHEAR INCREASING TO
AROUND 30 KT BY 72 HOURS...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A PEAK
IN INTENSITY AROUND THAT TIME...IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE ICON
INTENSITY CONSENSUS. IF THE CYCLONE DOES NOT INTENSIFY IN THE NEXT
DAY OR SO...IT COULD STRUGGLE TO MAINTAIN A CLOSED SURFACE
CIRCULATION WITH SUCH A FAST FORWARD SPEED...AND COULD OPEN BACK UP
INTO A TROPICAL WAVE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 02/1500Z 12.6N 41.1W 30 KT
12HR VT 03/0000Z 13.5N 44.0W 35 KT
24HR VT 03/1200Z 14.8N 48.9W 40 KT
36HR VT 04/0000Z 16.4N 53.4W 45 KT
48HR VT 04/1200Z 18.4N 57.4W 50 KT
72HR VT 05/1200Z 22.0N 63.0W 50 KT
96HR VT 06/1200Z 26.0N 66.5W 45 KT
120HR VT 07/1200Z 29.0N 68.5W 45 KT

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[srainhoutx]

I really do not think this will strengthen that quickly.

[rnmm]

Hello all! I have been on vacation for a week and am just now getting a chance to catch up on things. How confident are you guys that this storm will recurve and be a fish?

[biggerbyte]

This could, indeed, turn out to be a fish. It all depends on a couple of factors that are not set in stone. As far as rapid intensification goes.... I don't know of anyone personaly who will be disappointed if it does not become a monster, or if it does, do it quickly. I'd be glad if all the big ones go swim with the fishies. Yesterday looked different from today, as far as strength goes.

Anyway, as with any system, (model lovers beware), it ain't done until the fat lady sings. We had a near duplicate situation with Ike where he was forecasted to go way north and east based on model consensus. I can go back and pull transcripts from all the model runs, and comments from folks who follow them, and show that Ike was a surprise to many. The point here is, things may turn out as suggested today. Then again, they may not. Getting cocky over long range model runs is just silly, if I may be honest.


BB

[rnmm]

Thank you BB. I do not place any confidence in any one model, which is why I follow the forum so closely.

[srainhoutx]

If this TD is going to miss the Islands, a turn to a more WNW heading will need to start fairly soon. At this time it looks like a Westerly motion to me...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-vis.html

[srainhoutx]

I'm waiting for highly paid professional energy sector meteorologist WxMan57 to give his ideas. They're right about 90 or 95% of the time.

He stated Tampico to Iceland yesterday. Too busy dealing with paying customers today I suppose.

[ticka1]

I think the first in line is the folks in the islands that need to be on alert - if TD4 continues its westward track then they will have to deal with either TD or TS. Will it ever affect the CONUS - I don't know the answer but I think TD4 won't be affecting us.

[Scott747]

HPC seems a little miffed that the NHC went with the eastern most track with their final extended forecast of the day. HPC still likes a more westward solution putting NC at risk. I think the NHC went with the more eastern track because of the forward motion expected to increase.

A SIGNIFICANT WRINKLE IN THE FORECAST IS TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR
IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC. THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE
MOVES THIS SYSTEM NEAR OR OFFSHORE THE EAST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA
OVER THE NEXT WEEK. THE 12Z GFS/12Z CANADIAN ARE THE FARTHEST
WEST BRINGING IT TOWARDS FLORIDA IN 6-7 DAYS...WHILE THE 12Z
ECMWF/12Z UKMET ARE WELL TO THE RIGHT TRYING TO RECURVE THE SYSTEM
JUST EAST OF THE 70TH MERIDIAN. THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE WITH THIS
FEATURE HAS ALSO BEEN QUESTIONABLE WITHIN ANY OF ITS 00Z AND 12Z
RUNS OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...THOUGH ITS MULTI-DAY WAVERING
FAVORS THE WESTERN ROUTE MOVING THE LOW JUST NORTH OF THE GREATER
ANTILLES UP THE EAST SIDE OF THE BAHAMA BANK AND OFFSHORE THE
FLORIDA COAST. NHC TOOK THE EASTERN ROUTE AT 15Z WHICH WAS A
SIGNIFICANT BREAK FROM YESTERDAYS 16Z NHC/HPC AGREED UPON POINTS.
SEE NHCS LATEST DISCUSSIONS CONCERNING THEIR FORECAST REASONING.
BEYOND FRIDAY MORNING...THE WEAKENING TROUGH IN THE EAST IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO CAUSE FULL RECURVATURE. THE COL
IN THE FLOW PATTERN SHOULD REMAIN TO ITS NORTH...SO THE AGREED
UPON POINTS FOR LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK TAKE THE
SYSTEM NORTHWEST IN THE GENERAL DIRECTION OF THE CAROLINAS SOUTH
OF THE NORTHWARD MIGRATING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS EXPECTED TO
REACH THE 33RD PARALLEL EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEE THE LATEST FORECASTS
FROM NHC CONCERNING THE FUTURE OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR.

[Scott747]

Sounds like a few other folks think that the HPC was a little upset with the first forecast track by the NHC. Not sure why though. In hindsight it may have been the 0z Euro and it's further shift to the E which in turned moved the TVCN even further right and they choose to go with that as mentioned in the disco.

[Scott747]

On EasternWx, they sort of noted the consensus seems to beat any individual model almost every time.


With the Euro going fishing, the Nogaps having a weak system headed into the Lesser Antilles, and only the Canadian even close to suggesting a SE USA coast threat, well, while model worship is wrong, as everyone knows, and HPC liking a more Western track that might still be a Carolina threat, I'd say the odds are better than even that a fish storm, threatening only to Bermuda, is the right answer.



Texas looks as safe as it possibly can with a TC in the Atlantic...

It wouldn't take much of a shift though by modeling or storm movement/heading to have the track become more inline with something like the HPC is leaning towards which would imply a more SE CONUS threat.

[srainhoutx]

I will say that the Full Update from NHC will be worth the read. I may be wrong, but the lack of gaining much latitude throughout today does raise an eyebrow. I still think this has a ways to go before we see an upgrade to TS. Satellite presentation does not support an upgrade at this time IMO what ever that's worth.

[Scott747]

I will say that the Full Update from NHC will be worth the read. I may be wrong, but the lack of gaining much latitude throughout today does raise an eyebrow. I still think this has a ways to go before we see an upgrade to TS. Satellite presentation does not support an upgrade at this time IMO what ever that's worth.

Still seems like it's on track though must admit it's hard to really get a feel for a definitive motion right now.

Do agree that there shouldn't be a upgrade coming anytime soon. It has a tough road ahead with that pesky TUTT feature N of PR. Much like Bonnie it seems to be a feature that the models are having trouble resolving.

[Scott747]

Should see a shift to the W on the long range forecast with the upcoming package.

[Scott747]

Good disco from Stewart. Track adjustment in the long range to the W as expected but he explains the wide variances between that two groups of models and what they show.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/14. DESPITE THEIR POOR
INITIALIZATION OF THE DEPRESSION AT 12Z...THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS
TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AND IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
MOTION ACCOMPANIED BY A STEADY INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED EXCEEDING
20 KT THROUGH 72 HOURS. AFTER THAT...HOWEVER...THE MODELS DIVERGE
SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE UKMET...ECMWF...AND GFDL MODELS TAKING A
VERY WEAK CYCLONE QUICKLY NORTHWARD THROUGH A LARGE BREAK IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...WHEREAS THE HWRF...GFS...AND NOGAPS MODELS
FAVOR A SLOWER AND MORE NORTHWESTWARD MOTION. THE MAIN DIFFERENCES
LIE IN HOW THE MODELS HANDLE A MID-LEVEL TROUGH ALONG THE U.S. EAST
COAST THAT IS FORECAST TO DIG SOUTHWARD OUT OF NORTHERN CANADA OVER
THE NEXT 5 DAYS. THE UKMET...ECMWF...AND GFDL HAVE MORE AMPLIFIED
TROUGH WHICH ERODES THE RIDGE OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST...WHILE
THE OTHER MODELS HAVE LESS AMPLITUDE AND MORE ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE
U.S. MID-ATLANTIC STATES. GIVEN THE CURRENT 5-WAVE PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN...MY FEELING IS THAT SUCH SIGNIFICANT EROSION OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WOULD BE SOMEWHAT OVERDONE FOR THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR. AS A RESULT...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS A LITTLE TO THE
LEFT OF AND SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND IS SIMILAR TO
THE CONSENSUS MODELS...TVCN AND TVCC...ESPECIALLY AT DAYS 4 AND 5.

[biggerbyte]

What a difference a day can make. Sunday brought what looked like conditions go for quick development. Today we see things don't look so favorable. This system may have an even bigger problems as it heads westward, especially if it starts to add more of a northerly component in it's movement. These types of situations may end up being the norm for this season. That would be called a dud. Say, were we not supposed to be having a monster of a season this year?

[biggerbyte]

Still looking at Texas to the Carolinas with this. This far out, Florida to Northern Gulf look suspect. The models continue to show things this system is not currently doing. Westward it goes even at this hour. If we begin to get some northerly movement in the mid term, the Carolinas should watch out. As far as a fish storm, or Bermuda, I don't get that notion. We'll see what the future holds. I'd expect we would know more about what to expect with the big players by Tuesday night.

[Scott747]

Cosgrove is still IMBY-ish, but I'm starting to think he is a local version of JB, not always wrong, but always leaning toward most alarmist possible solution.

I made this point to my chase partner the other day when he got a bit excited with the snippet we saw about a possible Texas threat.

IMBYism will always cloud objectivity in the long run but in the case of local forecasters one should expect to see them put out any possible scenario that would have some reasoning for effects or track to their general location. No matter how less likely it were to occur.

You see it at most all of the local weather discussion boards as well....

[wxman57]

I don't see anything to indicate any threat to Texas. As poor as it looks tonight, it may not be any threat to anyone. I really doubt it has much of an LLC, if any. And shear in its path does appear to increase over the next few days. Could well have a better chance of dissipating than reaching moderate TS strength.