Sounds like a few other folks think that the HPC was a little upset with the first forecast track by the NHC. Not sure why though. In hindsight it may have been the 0z Euro and it's further shift to the E which in turned moved the TVCN even further right and they choose to go with that as mentioned in the disco.
Ed Mahmoud wrote:On EasternWx, they sort of noted the consensus seems to beat any individual model almost every time.
With the Euro going fishing, the Nogaps having a weak system headed into the Lesser Antilles, and only the Canadian even close to suggesting a SE USA coast threat, well, while model worship is wrong, as everyone knows, and HPC liking a more Western track that might still be a Carolina threat, I'd say the odds are better than even that a fish storm, threatening only to Bermuda, is the right answer.
Texas looks as safe as it possibly can with a TC in the Atlantic...
It wouldn't take much of a shift though by modeling or storm movement/heading to have the track become more inline with something like the HPC is leaning towards which would imply a more SE CONUS threat.
I will say that the Full Update from NHC will be worth the read. I may be wrong, but the lack of gaining much latitude throughout today does raise an eyebrow. I still think this has a ways to go before we see an upgrade to TS. Satellite presentation does not support an upgrade at this time IMO what ever that's worth.
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srainhoutx wrote:I will say that the Full Update from NHC will be worth the read. I may be wrong, but the lack of gaining much latitude throughout today does raise an eyebrow. I still think this has a ways to go before we see an upgrade to TS. Satellite presentation does not support an upgrade at this time IMO what ever that's worth.
Still seems like it's on track though must admit it's hard to really get a feel for a definitive motion right now.
Do agree that there shouldn't be a upgrade coming anytime soon. It has a tough road ahead with that pesky TUTT feature N of PR. Much like Bonnie it seems to be a feature that the models are having trouble resolving.
Good disco from Stewart. Track adjustment in the long range to the W as expected but he explains the wide variances between that two groups of models and what they show.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/14. DESPITE THEIR POOR
INITIALIZATION OF THE DEPRESSION AT 12Z...THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS
TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AND IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
MOTION ACCOMPANIED BY A STEADY INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED EXCEEDING
20 KT THROUGH 72 HOURS. AFTER THAT...HOWEVER...THE MODELS DIVERGE
SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE UKMET...ECMWF...AND GFDL MODELS TAKING A
VERY WEAK CYCLONE QUICKLY NORTHWARD THROUGH A LARGE BREAK IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...WHEREAS THE HWRF...GFS...AND NOGAPS MODELS
FAVOR A SLOWER AND MORE NORTHWESTWARD MOTION. THE MAIN DIFFERENCES
LIE IN HOW THE MODELS HANDLE A MID-LEVEL TROUGH ALONG THE U.S. EAST
COAST THAT IS FORECAST TO DIG SOUTHWARD OUT OF NORTHERN CANADA OVER
THE NEXT 5 DAYS. THE UKMET...ECMWF...AND GFDL HAVE MORE AMPLIFIED
TROUGH WHICH ERODES THE RIDGE OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST...WHILE
THE OTHER MODELS HAVE LESS AMPLITUDE AND MORE ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE
U.S. MID-ATLANTIC STATES. GIVEN THE CURRENT 5-WAVE PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN...MY FEELING IS THAT SUCH SIGNIFICANT EROSION OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WOULD BE SOMEWHAT OVERDONE FOR THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR. AS A RESULT...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS A LITTLE TO THE
LEFT OF AND SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND IS SIMILAR TO
THE CONSENSUS MODELS...TVCN AND TVCC...ESPECIALLY AT DAYS 4 AND 5.
What a difference a day can make. Sunday brought what looked like conditions go for quick development. Today we see things don't look so favorable. This system may have an even bigger problems as it heads westward, especially if it starts to add more of a northerly component in it's movement. These types of situations may end up being the norm for this season. That would be called a dud. Say, were we not supposed to be having a monster of a season this year?
Still looking at Texas to the Carolinas with this. This far out, Florida to Northern Gulf look suspect. The models continue to show things this system is not currently doing. Westward it goes even at this hour. If we begin to get some northerly movement in the mid term, the Carolinas should watch out. As far as a fish storm, or Bermuda, I don't get that notion. We'll see what the future holds. I'd expect we would know more about what to expect with the big players by Tuesday night.
Ed Mahmoud wrote:Cosgrove is still IMBY-ish, but I'm starting to think he is a local version of JB, not always wrong, but always leaning toward most alarmist possible solution.
I made this point to my chase partner the other day when he got a bit excited with the snippet we saw about a possible Texas threat.
IMBYism will always cloud objectivity in the long run but in the case of local forecasters one should expect to see them put out any possible scenario that would have some reasoning for effects or track to their general location. No matter how less likely it were to occur.
You see it at most all of the local weather discussion boards as well....
I don't see anything to indicate any threat to Texas. As poor as it looks tonight, it may not be any threat to anyone. I really doubt it has much of an LLC, if any. And shear in its path does appear to increase over the next few days. Could well have a better chance of dissipating than reaching moderate TS strength.
I think it a mistake to remove Texas from the equation just yet. Everything hinges on how far south of the TUTT this system will remain, and thus how much shear it faces. If TD 4 stays far enough away from the TUTT, and lives to make it to the Caribbean, then it will be in a better enviroment to strenghten more, or again. TD 4 is still moving away from model guidance and has shown no sign of moving north. I expect that will continue. It is the ridge that we should be watching, not the trough that many expect to pick this up. Things are going to have to change from the way they look right now before I personaly buy into this monster trough. Depending on the ridge, northern gulf, to the Carolinas could get some rains from at least a tropical storm. If the TUTT shears this apart in it's current state, then we have wasted a bunch of time on nothing.
Actually, if you want to look at it that way, there is no evidence of a threat anywhere. Everything right now is speculation. With the models flip flopping this far out, and the current uncertainty of the position and strength of the trough and ridge, it is still too early to make an accurate statement as to what is going to happen. Now I would place Texas last in line based on what we see at the moment, but not remove completely... Not until we see this die somewhere, and/or we get that northerly turn the models are hung up on. Talk about no evidence... Watch the models shift west and continue to do so until we get that turn. I'd almost bet money on a northern gulf/florida impact at some point. Stronger trough and it says hello to the Carolinas. Point is, we can not hang our hat on anything right now. Heck, it might even just go poof, depending on a few factors.
One more thing I want to add to this conversation, folks.
The words evidence and never are extremely loaded. I hate to refer back to Ike, but that storm is a very good example of what we are talking about here today. The models had Ike being picked up by a trough, so it was forecasted to never get anywhere near Texas. If memory serves me, the GOM was even out. There was no evidence then that not only would it get into the GOM, but head right for SE Texas.
biggerbyte wrote:One more thing I want to add to this conversation, folks.
The words evidence and never are extremely loaded. I hate to refer back to Ike, but that storm is a very good example of what we are talking about here today. The models had Ike being picked up by a trough, so it was forecasted to never get anywhere near Texas. If memory serves me, the GOM was even out. There was no evidence then that not only would it get into the GOM, but head right for SE Texas.
Come on, guys... It ain't over 'till it's over.
Not quite true.
The very first forecast implied a heading directly towards the Gulf and if you extrapolated it out Texas was within reason (though unlikely being it was so far out to travel on a fixed motion.) The first disco was all about it heading W under a subtropical ridge that was forecast to continue and build westward which easily put the Gulf in play.
Colin is born.. Still moving westward with no big push northward.
Now will he stay alive, stay as strong or get stronger, and where will he go.
We can talk about all of that Tuesday afternoon and evening. I'm off to bed.
