TS Colin

[srainhoutx]

Snip from HGX:

HOT AND PRIMARILY DRY RAIN-WISE...BUT NOT IN HUMIDITY...THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. CENTER OF 5H RIDGE FORECAST BY THE ENSEMBLE TO REMAIN
OFF TO THE NORTH NEXT WEEK. THERE ARE HINTS THAT THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN ENOUGH TO ALLOW A POSSIBLE
EASTERN GOM WAVE TO UNDERCUT THIS WEAKNESS. THE GFS/ECMWF HAVE THIS
WAVE/INVERTED TROF MAKING IT TO THE TEXAS COAST ON FRIDAY. FALLING
ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THIS WAVE WOULD SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE RAIN
CHANCES...BUT THIS ALL DOESN`T PAN OUT UNTIL DAY 9 OR 10. IN THE
MEANTIME...EXTENDING HEAT ADVISORIES AND HOPING FOR A MORE ACTIVE
SEA BREEZE WILL BE THE ONGOING THEME. 31


Probably a better idea to move this discussion to the General thread.

[srainhoutx]

Very impressive convective burst near what looks to be a low level circulation. Forward motion has slowed as well. Hmmm...

[srainhoutx]

RECON finding W winds again as well as TS force winds. May Upgrade back to TS Colin.

[srainhoutx]

INTERNET PROBLEMS WILL PREVENT THE NHC WEB SITE FROM BEING UPDATED
AT THIS TIME. PLEASE SEE WEATHER.GOV FOR ADVISORY TEXT PRODUCTS.


737
WTNT24 KNHC 052058
TCMAT4
TROPICAL STORM COLIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042010
2100 UTC THU AUG 05 2010

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF BERMUDA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
BERMUDA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.9N 66.3W AT 05/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 17 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 90NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.9N 66.3W AT 05/2100Z
AT 05/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.4N 65.8W

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 26.6N 67.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 28.1N 67.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 29.6N 67.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 75SE 35SW 35NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 31.3N 67.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 35NE 35SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 36.0N 65.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 20NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 60SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 40.0N 61.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 49.0N 48.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.9N 66.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[srainhoutx]

637
WTNT34 KNHC 052348
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM COLIN SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042010
730 PM AST THU AUG 05 2010

...COLIN STRENGTHENS AS IT MOVES NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 730 PM AST...2330 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.6N 66.3W
ABOUT 470 MI...760 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...32 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 730 PM AST...2330 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM COLIN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 66.3 WEST. COLIN IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH...32 KM/HR. A GRADUAL
TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT 48 HR.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT DURING
THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
NOW NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN
STRENGTH IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...WITH SLOW STRENGTHENING
FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WINDS...TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER
BERMUDA WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...730 PM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1030 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART/BROWN

[Ptarmigan]

Colin is the "Come Back Kid". Stronger than it was.

[sleetstorm]

Colin is looking a little better tonight but is still contending with wind shear. I wonder if that storm just might be able to strengthen to hurricane status sometime tonight or tomorrow morning?

[sleetstorm]

Tropical thunderstorms have very wonderfully blossomed east of Tropical Storm Colin's center of circulation. I wonder if they will be able to last all throughout tonight & into tomorrow morning?

[biggerbyte]

I'm glad to see Colin did get pulled away from the SE coast. This was one of those situations where it was not exactly cut and dry for a few days, but in the end it did get lifted out. This has truly been a wacky start to the season.

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