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Re: Winter Long Range Discussion
Posted: Sun Dec 05, 2021 11:36 am
by Stratton20
Im just gonna call this years winter early spring, its going to be a bust, I just dont see any cold snaps this season, oh well tine to move to sprint
Re: Winter Long Range Discussion
Posted: Mon Dec 06, 2021 10:20 am
by Cpv17
This is what happens when you have colder water and lower heights in the NE Pacific south of Alaska. Itβs called a +EPO and itβs absolutely killing our winter. Need to start chipping away on this so we can have a backloaded winter.
Re: Winter Long Range Discussion
Posted: Mon Dec 06, 2021 11:53 am
by Stratton20
im starting to hear that after christmas their are signs that the EPO might go negative
Re: Winter Long Range Discussion
Posted: Mon Dec 06, 2021 1:00 pm
by Iceresistance
Stratton20 wrote: βMon Dec 06, 2021 11:53 am
im starting to hear that after christmas their are signs that the EPO might go negative
Take a look at this! O_O
Re: Winter Long Range Discussion
Posted: Mon Dec 06, 2021 1:16 pm
by Stratton20
Re: Winter Long Range Discussion
Posted: Mon Dec 06, 2021 2:37 pm
by Kingwood36
Well the next 12 days look depressing..tank tops and shorts
Re: Winter Long Range Discussion
Posted: Mon Dec 06, 2021 5:21 pm
by snowman65
Iceresistance wrote: βMon Dec 06, 2021 1:00 pm
Stratton20 wrote: βMon Dec 06, 2021 11:53 am
im starting to hear that after christmas their are signs that the EPO might go negative
Take a look at this! O_O
nahh...not buying it this year
Re: Winter Long Range Discussion
Posted: Mon Dec 06, 2021 5:38 pm
by Stratton20
snowman65 it literally is only december.......
Re: Winter Long Range Discussion
Posted: Mon Dec 06, 2021 9:38 pm
by Cpv17
Stratton20 wrote: βMon Dec 06, 2021 5:38 pm
snowman65 it literally is only december.......
Yeah. If the MJO can get out of phase 6 into 7 that will start helping the EPO and we could have a backloaded winter. Late December around Christmas towards New Years could be interesting.
Re: Winter Long Range Discussion
Posted: Tue Dec 07, 2021 11:00 am
by Iceresistance
Cpv17 wrote: βMon Dec 06, 2021 9:38 pm
Stratton20 wrote: βMon Dec 06, 2021 5:38 pm
snowman65 it literally is only december.......
Yeah. If the MJO can get out of phase 6 into 7 that will start helping the EPO and we could have a backloaded winter. Late December around Christmas towards New Years could be interesting.
If I recall correctly, was Winter 2020-2021 mostly backloaded as well?
Re: Winter Long Range Discussion
Posted: Tue Dec 07, 2021 12:43 pm
by Kingwood36
Well the cool down was nice while it lasted all of one day
Re: Winter Long Range Discussion
Posted: Tue Dec 07, 2021 7:56 pm
by Cpv17
Iceresistance wrote: βTue Dec 07, 2021 11:00 am
Cpv17 wrote: βMon Dec 06, 2021 9:38 pm
Stratton20 wrote: βMon Dec 06, 2021 5:38 pm
snowman65 it literally is only december.......
Yeah. If the MJO can get out of phase 6 into 7 that will start helping the EPO and we could have a backloaded winter. Late December around Christmas towards New Years could be interesting.
If I recall correctly, was Winter 2020-2021 mostly backloaded as well?
I think November was cold, December was warm, January was kinda warm too, then February was very cold. At least thatβs how I remember it.
Re: Winter Long Range Discussion
Posted: Wed Dec 08, 2021 6:42 am
by Kingwood36
Anyone else having problems accessing the site for safety reasons?
Re: Winter Long Range Discussion
Posted: Wed Dec 08, 2021 8:52 am
by JDsGN
Kingwood36 wrote: βWed Dec 08, 2021 6:42 am
Anyone else having problems accessing the site for safety reasons?
Yes I just got a warning i had to accept a security risk to access. Once i accepted its been normal.
Re: Winter Long Range Discussion
Posted: Wed Dec 08, 2021 8:53 am
by Kingwood36
JDsGN wrote: βWed Dec 08, 2021 8:52 am
Kingwood36 wrote: βWed Dec 08, 2021 6:42 am
Anyone else having problems accessing the site for safety reasons?
Yes I just got a warning i had to accept a security risk to access. Once i accepted its been normal.
I did also but it's still showing a warning every time I refresh the oage...might be the site itself..
Re: Winter Long Range Discussion
Posted: Wed Dec 08, 2021 9:45 am
by tireman4
I DMd Steve. I think the certificate is out of date.
Re: Winter Long Range Discussion
Posted: Wed Dec 08, 2021 11:58 am
by Stratton20
12z GFS for the week of christmas is now suggesting a disruption of the polar vortex allowing for some arctic air to spill southward, the trough is beginning to develop around the 24th
Re: Winter Long Range Discussion
Posted: Thu Dec 09, 2021 8:56 am
by Kingwood36
Anyone still having problems accessing the site?
Re: Winter Long Range Discussion
Posted: Thu Dec 09, 2021 11:59 am
by Stratton20
We are starting to see signs of a major pattern change in days 11-12 on the 12z GFS, lets see if this trend continues
Re: Winter Long Range Discussion
Posted: Thu Dec 09, 2021 12:18 pm
by Kingwood36
Didn't the 12z show a rain snow mix here in south east texas? I know it's 200 plus hrs out but it could be catching on to something